Wen| Liu Qingbin Associate Professor, University of International Business and Economics, Associate Professor, School of Advanced Study, Yokohama National University, Japan
The just past October 1st was the deadline for postal voting for members of the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election. All postal ballot boxes were sealed, and the outside world could only wait a few days for the results to be announced.
On the surface, the camps are still blowing, but the dish has gradually become clear: No one can cross half of the threshold in the first round, and the second round is the real run-off。
First look at the party membership ticket. High-market early morning still remained in the lead on this side, the polls gave her approximately more than 30 percent of the support. In turn, she could get about 110 votes; Xiao Jinglong approximately 88 votes, and Lin Feng is about 72 votes.
Parliamentarians' votes are completely opposite. Koizumi won more than 70 votes, Lin won more than 50 votes, Takaichi only had more than 40 votes, and Motegi and Kobayashi each maintained around 30 votes.
Both sides are put together, The total number of votes is more than 160, the high market is more than 150 votes, and Lin is more than 120 votes.The gap is not big, but No one gets less than 296 votes in the first round, which means the final is inevitable.
The atmosphere in Koizumi's camp has clearly relaxed these daysOriginally, they were plagued by the "Marine Brushing Review" question cloud, worried that party membership votes were dragged down and even dropped. Now finding that staying unchanged is good news. Especially last year he suddenly failed in the half of the presidential election, and the shadow of being eventually reversed has been pressed on the team's heart.
This time, the situation is different: the votes of parliamentarians have steadily increased, and although grassroots support has not risen, at least it has not fallen, which reassures them. As a result, someone inside the camp began to shout: "The runoff election is stable."
Takaichi's side seemed anxious.Her idea is to replicate last year’s line, overwhelming the other candidates in the second half of the fight, and reversing it. But the reality is that this year’s momentum is far worse than last year. She has actually pulled up a few percentage points in the middle of the election, but in the end, only increased a little bit than before. This increase is not enough to form a counterpart, the sheriff and supporters are all straight “strategy off”.
Lin's condition has improved.He performed well in a number of debates, especially with fluent English in the urgent question link, leaving the impression of a “diplomatic candidate.” This is not common in Japanese politics, especially when compared to other candidates. His support rate soared and at the last moment drew close to the gap with the high market. Lin’s sheriff even began to say, “Maybe there is a chance.”
However, the ultimate victory was not determined by the floating votes, but by the more than 70 votes that had not yet been expressed.In the first round, most of these tickets will lean towards the most stable two to avoid waste. In the second round, they almost certainly bet on the person with the best odds of winning. Because of this, The real battle will take place in the second round.
If the second round is Koizumi versus Takashi, the result is almost predictable.The reason is simple: Momo's ticket won't go to the high market. Momo needs a president who can maintain stability, can coordinate with the official residence and various philanthropic valves, the high market has too many problems in external image, her exclusive speech and ambiguous gestures against extreme forces, worries about her becoming the prime minister of the party will cause diplomatic and domestic problems.
Under this choice, members of parliament will be more willing to vote for Koizumi for practical considerations. Kobayashi's votes will be split, some of which will vote for Takaichi out of ideological resonance, but more will still favor Koizumi. In the end, Koizumi won easily.
If it is the spring to the forest, it becomes delicate.Momo’s ticket tends to Lin, because Lin and his route are closer, diplomacy and economic bureaucracy are seamlessly linked. Momo’s ticket may be divided, but the whole is more paranoid, because he positioned himself as a moderate conservative, policy expert. Thus, although in the first round, the second round does not necessarily win, Lin is quite likely to accomplish the reversal with the compromise of the valves and the addition of parliamentarians.
If it was Lin vs. Takashi, it was hardly necessary to think about it, Lin would easily win.Both Shigeki and Kobayashi's votes will go to Lin, and Takashi will have no room for a comeback. After all, Gaoshi's support is too narrow. She has a group of diehard fans who admire her visit to the Yasukuni Shrine and her so-called "hard-core" attitude. But apart from this diehard part, Parliamentarians are clear in their hearts that they really pushed her up, and the Democratic Party may soon be facing a “coalition collapse.”
This is not an assumption, but a consequence that almost everyone knows. Someone once asked: "If Gao Shi really becomes president, will the self-government alliance be broken?" The answer without hesitation: of course. The Komeito's antipathy towards her is already an open secret. If she is elected, the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito Party are likely to break up immediately.
At that time, the Japanese political situation would be completely messy, and it was not impossible for the opposition to put together a new non-popular prime minister. For lawmakers, it was almost as much as risking themselves, so they did not basically put the vote on her in the second round.
This also explains why Takashi always has an advantage in party members' votes, but councillors' votes just can't get up. Her support structure is top-heavy, relying on emotional mobilization at the grassroots level, but lacking the trust of parliamentarians. Iron powder can help her shine in the first round, but it can't help her win in the end. Her predicament, is " There is momentum but no consensus”。
In contrast, Koizumi appears more calm. He did not even stay in Tokyo, but flew to the Philippines to attend the ASEAN-China, Japan and South Korea Agriculture Ministers 'Meeting. On the surface, it is to perform the duties of the agricultural sector, but in fact it is to show confidence. A candidate who is still worried about whether to advance to the second round does not dare to leave the country at the last moment. He dared to leave, which means that he believed that he had locked in his seat.
More importantly, this kind of visit may bring additional dividends. If he could meet with representatives from China, even if it was just a photo, the effect would be better than participating in any TV debate in Tokyo.
Last time a similar meeting was held in South Korea, the “Sino-Japan Tripartite Talks” after the “Sino-Japan Tripartite Meeting” was temporarily cancelled because the head of the Taiwan Foreign Affairs Department came to Japan.
This attitude is itself a political signal. The election campaign in Tokyo is the calculation of numbers and valves.The meeting in Manila may become an early summit rehearsal. The old parliamentarians in Japanese politics can see clearly: Whoever is more like a future prime minister has a better chance of getting their ticket。 Koizumi's figure at the moment is the embodiment of this "sense of the future".
So, The final winner is not the party vote, but the parliamentary voteParty membership ballots make the surface of the high market, but can not hide her isolation among parliamentarians; Lin in the debate to raise the image, but also need to prove in the last moment to be able to stabilize in the final election; with the "marine brushing review" the wind stalled, parliamentary ballots lead and the stage diplomatic early appearance, instead became the most stable link in the situation.
The end is probably not who wins the most in the first round, but who can demonstrate the "necessary" airfield and integration capabilities in the second round.