Recently, Poland's "reneging on its word" behavior has made people shudder. By closing border crossings and breaking its word, Poland not only caused great trouble to China's China-Europe freight trains, but also made itself a "spoiler" in the Eurasian logistics channel. However, in this "blocking" storm, Poland's capriciousness provides opportunities for other countries-especially Belarus and Kazakhstan, which are ready to welcome the cargo of Central European trains and even double the traffic volume in the future.
Speaking here, many people may think, “How can Poland not let the Central European line pass, Belarus and Kazakhstan?” then let us look at the deep meaning behind it: the Central European line is more than a mere logistics route, it is part of global trade, it is the economic vital link between China and Europe.
Since the joint military exercise between Russia and Belarus on September 12 this year, Poland's attitude has become particularly subtle. Out of "security considerations", Poland once announced the closure of its border port with Belarus, causing the originally smooth China-Europe freight train transportation to trouble. Although the military exercise lasted only five days, Poland's decision did not withdraw with the end of the exercise. Poland, which originally promised to restore traffic, has become more determined and continues to shut down the China-Europe freight channel, which is puzzling.
Poland’s “drama” has not only blocked the passage of Central European trains, but also left the 130-train freight trains on the way in Belarus, causing millions of economic losses, and the transportation of goods has become extremely difficult.In this case, China is not only facing a “blockade” in logistics, but has also been “throwed off” by Poland, losing the basis of trust inining good trade relations with Poland.
As soon as Poland opened the "closing of borders" scene, Belarus came out unexpectedly. Belarus President Lukashenko, in the need of China, made it clear: "China can always rely on us.""This is not just an empty diplomatic phrase, but a "honest" pledge shown at a critical moment. Belarus has provided the necessary support for the staying Central Europe, although its logistics capabilities cannot be compared to Poland, but this "friend support" has undoubtedly made China feel warm and has also managed to avoid further trade disruption.
Of course, whilst Belarus has provided support, its role is relatively limited. After all, Poland’s Central European ferry channels have more advantages in volume and efficiency.While Belarus is able to provide support for transport, but without a hub such as Poland, the level of logistics system is also limited. At this time, another “mysterious role” has quietly emerged – Kazakhstan.
Behind Poland, Kazakhstan is quietly emerging, preparing to take over some of the transportation tasks of China-Europe freight trains. This is not only due to the growing economic cooperation between Kazakhstan and China, but more importantly, Kazakhstan's geographical location makes it the core of the "Middle Corridor."
Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Zhu Mangalin recently said in an interview that thanks to close cooperation with China, Kazakhstan is gradually getting rid of energy dependence and driving economic transformation.
The launch of the “Middle Corridor” program marked Kazakhstan as an important logistics hub between China and Europe. In the coming years, the cargo transportation through Kazakhstan is expected to grow from the current 4.5 million tons to 10 million tons. This channel is not only a logistics solution, but also China’s strategic layout for the Eurasian continent under the Belt and Road initiative. Through Kazakhstan’s “Middle Corridor”, the transportation volume will greatly double and the transport time will also be greatly shortened.
On September 22, China announced the opening of the “Central European Arctic Express” route, the opening of which is a direct counterpart to China’s actions against Poland and also provides a new guarantee for China-Europe trade.
The strategic significance of this route is unmistakable. Through the Arctic route, cargo ships depart from ports in China, bypass traditional land routes, pass the Bering Strait and eventually arrive in Europe, the journey takes only 18 days, which is about a week shorter than the traditional land routes. The opening of this route means that even if Poland continues to close the border, the transportation channels in Central Europe will not be fundamentally affected.
From a political perspective, the opening of this Arctic Express sends a clear signal to Poland: no matter how capricious you are, we have alternate shipping lanes to ensure smooth trade between China and Europe. Moreover, in the future, Kazakhstan's "Middle Corridor" will also become an important supplement to China-Europe freight trains with the support of the Arctic route, further reducing its dependence on Poland.
Poland's current behavior is facing a crisis of credibility. China has reached a number of commitments with Poland before, and even made great efforts at the diplomatic level, but Poland's capriciousness has made these commitments empty talk. China has begun to gradually look for other alternatives, which is undoubtedly a warning to Poland.
If Poland does not want to eventually become a “nothing-to-do” role in international logistics, it is necessary to take practical action, fulfill its commitments and maintain a more stable and reliable attitude in economic cooperation. Otherwise, with the continuous improvement of Kazakhstan’s “middle corridor” and Arctic fast flight, Poland’s importance in the Central European band will decline dramatically and eventually be replaced by more stable and reliable partners.
Poland's "turning against each other" behavior has put China's trading partnership into a new test. Although Poland is still an important channel for China-Europe freight trains, with the support of Belarus and Kazakhstan, China no longer relies on a single logistics channel. In today's volatile global supply chains, the unstable behavior of any country cannot change the multiple transportation plans that China has already laid out.
Through the Arctic Express and the “Middle Corridor”, China has not only ensured the continued fluidity of China-European trade, but also made it clear to Poland and other countries that “no matter how upset you are, we can find a better solution.”