Preliminary

On September 17, the Saudi Crown Prince and the Pakistani Prime Minister met at RiyadhSign a mutual defense agreement and promise to support each other militarily.

Pakistan has stated, 170 warheadsIts nuclear capabilities can provide protection for Saudi Arabia. This statement shocked the Middle East, Israel、 India isImmediately convene an emergency impact assessment meeting.

Why did Saudi Arabia choose Pakistan? What is the chain reaction of this cooperation?

Backed by 170 nuclear warheads, Saudi Arabia finds a new backer

The signed agreement comes from the Middle East. Balance of traditional powerinstantly was broken.

Saudi Arabia, the Gulf country with the world’s richest oil resources, will have the highest military spending in 2024. $80 billionIt ranks first in the Middle East, equipped with advanced combat aircraft and air defense systems purchased from the United States.

However, it is such a country with strong military capabilities that is actively seeking to establish a Pakistan with nuclear weapons. Joint DefenseRelationship, hidden behind this is deep security anxiety.

A key turning point appeared in the recent Israeli sudden attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar.

The attack made the Gulf states fully aware of one reality: The U.S. umbrellaNot as reliable as imagined.

The headquarters of the U.S. Central Command in Qatar should be one of the most important U.S. military bases in the Middle East.

Even so, Israeli warplanes drove straight into the base and carried out "surgical" strikes, and the U.S. military's response seemed inadequate, which made American allies throughout the Gulf feel Unsettled as never before。

The Saudi royal family is acutely aware that in the new era of multipolarity, it is no longer safe to rely solely on the protection of a single power.

Pakistan as The only Muslim world.For countries with nuclear weapons, the deterrent capability of 170 nuclear warheads is the security guarantee that Saudi Arabia urgently needs.

More importantly, there is a deep history between the two countries: since the 1960s, the Pakistani army has helped Saudi Arabia safeguard border security several times, and has also sent a large number of military advisors in the conflict in Yemen.

This “nuclear umbrella” promise gives Saudi Arabia more in the face of regional threats. The strategic bottom。

Spend money to buy protection, Pakistan Railway acts as an intermediary, and each takes what he needs in triangular transactions

On the surface, this is bilateral military cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

But dig deeper, you will find that behind this hides a wonderful set of things. The Triple Game.of logic.

Pakistan’s military strength depends heavily on China’s technical support from 2020 to 2024. China's arms exportsMore than 60% of the total went to Pakistan.

JF-17 fighters equipped by the Pakistani Air Force are jointly developed by China and Pakistan, and Red Flag 9 in the air defense system is also from China.

This is what Saudi Arabia is looking at: by investing in Pakistan’s defense industry, it is actually investing in Pakistan’s defense industry. Chinese military enterprisesOpening the Middle East market.

The ingenious aspect of this "strategic outsourcing" model lies in risk diversification and political buffering.

Saudi Arabia has avoided U.S. political pressure to engage in large-scale arms trade directly with China, while indirectly acquiring China’s advanced military technology.

According to unconfirmed but widespread news, Saudi plans to invest Billions of dollarsHelp Pakistan purchase J-35 stealth fighter, Hongqi-19 anti-missile system and Air Police-500 early warning aircraft.

The technical content of these equipment is quite high, and Pakistan cannot develop it independently.

The actual technology transfer chain is: China provides core technology → Pakistan is responsible for assembly and training → Saudi Arabia funds and shares technological achievements.

For Pakistan, the investment comes at a good time: the country is in urgent need of external financial support with tight foreign exchange reserves and high inflation.

Investments in Saudi ArabiaIt can not only alleviate its economic pressure, but also promote the upgrading of its military industry.

And for China, through Pakistan, a reliable partner, it can expand the region without directly interfering in the complex situation in the Middle East. strategic influence。

Chinese enterprises have gained new market opportunities, and advanced equipment also has a platform for real-world testing.

One stone stirs up thousands of waves, why India Israel sits unhappy

After the agreement was signed, the worst was India and Israel。

India's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement at the first time, expressing "serious concern" about this cooperation, fearing that it would affect the strategic balance in South Asia.

This fear is not unreasonable: India and Pakistan have complicated historical grievances, and there have been many military conflicts in Kashmir.

A Pakistan with Saudi funding and substantial upgrades in military equipment is clearly not something New Delhi is willing to see.

India is even more concerned that this model of cooperation could spread to other regions.

If if Gulf Cooperation CouncilOther member states also followed Saudi Arabia’s approach, and South Asia’s military balance will face significant adjustments.

Israel's response was more subtle but equally strong.

For a long time, Israel has maintained a monopoly on nuclear weapons in the Middle East, which is an important foundation for its military deterrence.

While Pakistan’s nuclear weapons will not directly threaten Israel’s mainland, Saudi Arabia has The Nuclear UmbrellaIt means that the nuclear deterrence pattern in the Middle East has undergone fundamental changes.

Israeli intelligence agencies have stepped up surveillance of this cooperation to assess its potential impact on the regional security environment.

Some analysts pointed out that Israel may consider taking "preventive actions" to test the true effectiveness of this alliance.

In contrast to the tensions between India and Israel, IranA cautious welcome attitude has been shown to this cooperation.

The Iranian president openly said he hoped that this regional security cooperation could expand to more countries and form a broader defense alliance.

There are realistic considerations behind this statement: in the face of US sanctions and Israeli threats, Iran also needs to find new ways to ensure security.

If Saudi-Pakistani cooperation is successful, Iran is likely to seek to join or establish a similar Multilateral DefenceThe mechanisms .

Holding groups for warmth has become a trend, and the security landscape of the Middle East has been quietly reshuffled

This agreement goes far beyond the scope of bilateral cooperation.

it marks The Era of PolarizationA profound shift in the security model in the Middle East, the traditional "superpowers + regional allies" architecture is shifting to the "multi-cooperation + interdependence" model.

Land’s latest research report points out that this “indirect game” model is likely to become a new paradigm for future international military cooperation.

Through third-party countries as a link, major countries can maximize strategic interests while reducing the risk of direct confrontation.

Analysts at the Brookings Institute believe that Saudi Arabia’s choice reflects the mid-power in the competition between the big powers. Surviving wisdomNeither completely turned to one side nor completely isolated from any side, but flexibly adjusted partners according to their own interests.

The promotion potential of this model should not be underestimated.

Other Member States of the Gulf Cooperation Committee, such as: United Arab Emirates and Qatar, all have strong financial strength but lack military human resources.

The quality of Pakistan's military ranks among the best among developing countries, and it can fully assume the role of "mercenary".

If this pattern is replicated, the Middle East could have multiple economic powers at its core, supported by military powers. Security Community。

Of course, this new model also faces many challenges.

Pakistan's domestic ethnic and religious contradictions are complicated, and high-profile intervention in Middle East affairs may lead to internal instability.

International terrorist organizations may also use this geopolitical change to create more chaos.

More importantly, this trend of "holding together for warmth" may aggravate regional Camped upTendencies that the original partnership has evolved into a confrontational alliance.

In the long run, the success of Saudi military cooperation will largely depend on whether the three sides are able to find a sustainable balance in the distribution of benefits, risk-taking and responsibility.

As the ancients said, "You have to be hard to strike while the iron is hot." No matter how strong the external support is, the ultimate security depends on your own strength to maintain it.

For Saudi Arabia, this agreement is only the first step in reconstructing the security system. How to Paper commitmentsTransforming into reality deterrence, there is a long way to go.

conclusion

This cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan demonstrates the ability of a medium-sized power in a complex international environment. strategic innovationThe capacity .

This "tripartite win-win" model could become a new model of international cooperation in the era of multipolarity, and it is worth continuing to observe its development trajectory and practical effects.