Early in the morning of October 1, the waters near Huangshan Island were quiet and the Chinese Maritime Police raised a five-star red flag on the island.This was the first time an official flag-lifting ceremony was held in this long-standing disputed area.
It is National Day, and this action has attracted a lot of attention. Just as the outside world was still speculating on what this meant, Philippine President Marcos suddenly announced that he was willing to invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Philippines to attend next year's ASEAN summit.
These two seemingly unrelated actions actually contain a lot of diplomatic games and practical pressures behind them. The wind and waves in the South China Sea have never been just fluctuations in the sea.
Behind the "flag-raising" of Huangyan Island is a signal of normalization of control
The location of Huangyan Island is not remote. On the map, it is not far from Luzon Island in the Philippines, but this sea area has always been a sensitive area between China and the Philippines.
China held the flag-lifting ceremony on the island, the meaning is very clear: this sea area is part of China and cannot be challenged. In the past there has been occasional incursions of Philippine ships and friction with the Chinese maritime police, but this time China did not shout slogans or issue a warning, but directly did something very practical - lifting the flag.
In recent months, the frequency of Chinese maritime patrols around Huangshan Island has increased significantly, and observers have noted that certain law enforcement vessels have stayed longer.
The island’s infrastructure is also gradually improving and some navigation and communication equipment has been put into use.These details reveal a trend: China is making its own management of Yellowstone Island more present.
Although the Philippines did not immediately respond strongly to the flag raising, judging from past experience, they will certainly not turn a blind eye.
In the past few years, the Philippines has taken a lot of actions in this sea area. It often sends ships close to islands and reefs in the name of supplies, and sometimes "invites" foreign journalists to accompany them, creating pressure on public opinion. This time China responded in a non-belligerent manner, which looks more like a strategic adjustment.
Marcos approached the United States and turned to Russia to test the water temperature
After Marcos took office, the diplomatic line was obviously biased towards the United States. He allowed the U.S. military to increase the number of military bases used in the Philippines, publicly supported the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy, and even confronted China's position on some sensitive issues.
The most typical is the Rhineland incident, where the Philippines has repeatedly sent supplies and said it has "practical control". but these moves are not in exchange for the "ally support" imagined by the outside world.
The United States did verbally express its "firm support for the Philippines", but it seemed unable to do so in practice. The Marcos government hopes to get closer to the United States in exchange for more economic cooperation, investment projects and even trade preferences, but these expectations have not been fulfilled.
Faced with domestic economic pressures and public dissatisfaction, Marcos began to look for new breakthroughs.
At this time, Russia became a considerable target.The Philippines has now officially announced to the outside world that it welcomes Putin to visit Manila in 2026 and attend the ASEAN Summit.
This summit coincides with the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and the Philippines. For Marcos, this is an opportunity that can be packaged as a "diplomatic breakthrough."
In fact, the relationship between Russia and the Philippines is not warm, but there is no obvious hostility. In the past ten years, the two sides have had some contacts in defense, energy and other fields, but they have always stayed at the level of intention.
Putin himself has never visited the Philippines, but the question is whether Russia is willing to participate in the diplomatic arrangement of the Philippines at this time.
Within the Philippines diplomatic trouble, behind the diplomatic gestures is reality anxiety
The Marcos government has not been in an easy situation at home recently. Inflation has risen repeatedly, people's purchasing power has declined, and the unemployment rate, especially among young people, is worrying.
Against this economic background, Marcos originally hoped to "add points" through diplomacy to ease internal pressure. But the reality is that it is not easy to stimulate public support by foreign policy, especially if the economic problems have not been solved.
Aside from domestic pressure, the Philippines’ situation within ASEAN has also become delicate.At the past several ASEAN conferences, the Philippines’ tough stance on the South China Sea issue has not received much response.
Most other countries want to remain neutral and avoid choosing sides between China and the United States. The Philippines 'attitude of being too close to the United States has put itself in a somewhat awkward position.
Inviting Putin to visit may appear to be an attempt to break the diplomatic deadlock, but it may also bring new problems. Russia has limited influence in the Asia-Pacific region and is currently mired in the Ukraine issue and Western sanctions. Whether Putin is willing to withdraw and move to Southeast Asia is not certain.
Moreover, this move may be interpreted by the outside world as an attempt by the Philippines to "release the source" between China and the United States, which does not necessarily get substantial benefits, but may increase distrust within ASEAN.
Geophysical wrestling intensifies, and pragmatic cooperation is the way out
From China's flag raising on Huangyan Island to the Philippines 'sudden invitation to Putin, it can be seen that although the situation in the South China Sea is calm on the surface, it is actually undercurrent.
China is strengthening its control over the sea area, while the Philippines is trying to break the diplomatic dilemma. Behind it, the game between big powers is constantly extending.
But from a practical point of view, whether it is shouting slogans or doing diplomatic actions, it will eventually be implemented in the rice bowls and pockets of ordinary people. If the Philippines blindly relies on military and diplomatic "show its existence", but ignores the economic fundamentals, it will inevitably make people lose patience.
Similarly, if China advances its South China Sea policy, it will be able to digest differences more through pragmatic cooperation, which will also contribute to stability in the region.
It is more sustainable to build a trust system within the region than to build external forces.China has deepened its cooperation with ASEAN countries in the digital economy, infrastructure investment and trade in recent years, demonstrating that this model is viable.
If the Philippines can jump out of the old routine of "choosing sides" and return to a truly development-oriented diplomatic thinking, it may be able to find a path that is more in line with its own interests.
Who holds the map without screaming?
The lifting of the flag is not the end point, it is an expression of attitude; inviting Putin is not a turn, it is a test.In this waters of the South China Sea, who can really master the initiative, is not how beautiful words are said, but whether it is possible to come up with a plan for stable development.
If Marcos wants to get out of the current dilemma, it is not enough to rely on diplomatic actions to create short-term topics. The real way out depends on how he balances domestic pressure with the international situation and makes choices in the face of practical interests.
When the wind hurts, it screams again, rather than steadfastly holding the boat.
Source of information:
The Global Times on October 1, 1925 that the Chinese Maritime Police held the first flag-lifting ceremony in the national nature reserve of Huangshan Island, emphasizing the declaration of sovereignty and normalized cruise.