According to reports, the attitude of Philippine President Marcos at this moment in the history of China-Philippines relations has changed, like a sudden cold stream, shaking the stability of the situation. However, this is not a “friendly demonstration” that seems to appear on the surface, but in a profound geopolitical game, Marcos has chosen the “opportunity”. The reasons behind everything, only he himself is most clear, but in this deep game, there are a few reasons worth considering.
This change by Marcos occurred against the backdrop of the Philippines 'resolute counterattack by China Coast Guard after trying to challenge China's sovereignty over the South China Sea. Especially in mid-September, a Philippine ship tried to illegally break in near Huangyan Island, but was expelled by a severe water cannon from the China Coast Guard. The Filipinos quickly raised white flags and surrendered.
The Philippines is not reluctant to show weakness in the South China Sea issue, especially after Marcos took office, showing a clear inclination toward the United States. He allowed the U.S. military to deploy anti-ship missiles in the Philippines, participate in joint military exercises near the Taiwan Sea, and even on the basis of the "Indo-Pacific strategy", the military friction with China has intensified. Whether it is the confrontation of the Philippine Maritime Police with Chinese ships or the "temporarily suspended" Reef of Mercy, Marcos is challenging China's bottom line.
In the Yellow Island incident, the Philippine vessels resolutely “broke in” but were hit by the Chinese naval guard’s water cannon in just half an hour, which marked a painful lesson from the Philippine diplomacy.Marcos previously believed that with the support of the United States, he could struggle hard with China on the South China Sea issue, but in the face of China’s resolute response, Markos realized that American support was far weaker than he imagined, and even disappeared without a trace in the face of the crisis.
Faced with the tough law enforcement of the Chinese Coast Guard, Marcos felt the drastic changes in the situation, and his attitude also underwent an earth-shaking change. As some people have said, the water cannon not only broke the glass of the Philippine ship, but also awakened Marcos' political judgment: if we continue to confront China, it will not only not help its domestic economy and politics, but will further worsen the external situation.
As domestic protests intensified, the Philippine economic problems also emerged.After the typhoon "Gaza" attack, the Philippine flood prevention project suffered serious problems due to corruption, hundreds of thousands flocked to the streets, angry people directly surrounded the presidential palace.In the face of a strong rebound of public opinion, Marcos' support rate continued to decline, and economic trouble left him unable to find more "salvage grass".
Under such circumstances, Marcos had to re-examine China-Philippines relations. China is not only an important economic partner of the Philippines, but also an important source of foreign trade and investment for the Philippines. Marcos clearly knows that if he continues to confront China, he will not only lose opportunities for economic cooperation, but may even fall into isolation on the international stage. Therefore, he began to take the initiative to seek détente and cooperation with China.
China's economic cooperation with the Philippines has a long history, especially in terms of infrastructure construction, trade and exchanges, and the extent to which the Philippines relies on the Chinese market and capital has been deepened.
Just as the Marcos government was trying to ease the situation, Huang Xilian, China's ambassador to the Philippines, took the initiative to meet with President Marcos just as he was about to leave office. During the talks, Ambassador Huang expressed positive comments on Marcos 'change in attitude, saying that Marcos' statement on the South China Sea issue showed pragmatism and rationality. At the meeting, Marcos made it clear that "the South China Sea issue is not the entire part of China-Philippines relations" and reiterated that the Philippines firmly supports the one-China policy and that the Taiwan issue is China's internal affair.
This rhetoric not only makes people feel that Marcos's transformation is very rapid, but can even be said to be a "white flag surrender" diplomatic move. Ambassador Huang also responded to this, expressing his gratitude and stressing that the potential for cooperation between the two countries is still great. At the same time, Ambassador Huang also reminded the Philippines that disputes in the South China Sea need to be resolved through rationality and dialogue. Although China's statement is grateful, it also releases a strong warning: the Philippines should not act rashly on any issue involving China's core interests.