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On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine. Many people were shocked by this sudden war.
But the Americans on the side of the ocean are light. Because as early as February 15, the Biden administration in the United States announced to the world that Russia would launch a war against Ukraine.
Looking back on the past and the past, what we see is a modern intelligence operation at the textbook level.
It marks the debut of a new strategy-"intelligence deterrence."
The United States has no longer locked the hard-earned intelligence in the safe, for reference only at the decision-making level, but has unprecedentedly “armed” it, proactively and systematically made it public, profoundly rewriting the beginning of this conflict.
When information is no longer a secret
This time in the United States, the "Nebbi Prophet" was not based on a single channel of explosive material, but a network of satellites, networks, human resources and public information.
Starting in the spring of 2021, U.S. intelligence satellites such as KH-11 and commercial satellite companies such as Planet Labs will carry out continuous high-frequency surveillance of the entire territory of Russia, especially the border region of Ukraine.
But soon, analysts saw something deeper. They are no longer satisfied with counting how many tanks there are, but Start analyzing the number of tents in military bases, the construction of field hospitals, the density of vehicles parked, the models of equipment, and even accurately identifying the car signs and units.
By comparing the images at different times, analysts came to a surprising conclusion that the reserves were enough to support a large army for two months of high-intensity combat.
This is not a “ordinary exercise” as it should be.
At the same time, the NSA's surveillance network is also operating at full capacity.
Before the war, the Russian military's communication traffic on frequencies increased abnormally. Analysts screened out key contents such as supply orders and dispatching passwords from massive encrypted information.
What is more valuable is that they found that keywords such as "gasoline" and "cold food" appear extremely frequently, which directly exposed the potential difficulties of Russian front-line logistics support.
What's even more amazing is that intelligence work even extends to the commercial field.
By monitoring global trade and customs data, analysts noticed a highly unusual signal: In January 2022, Russia suddenly began mass procurement of medical supplies such as plasma, antibiotics and hemostatistics.
These materials have a short shelf life and harsh transportation conditions, so they are only purchased on demand.
At that time, the purchase volume was several times that of usual, and the delivery address pointed directly to the military warehouse near the border.This is almost clear: we are ready to shed blood.
In the information age, the most valuable intelligence is sometimes hidden under the eyes of the public.
In July 2021, Putin published a long paper systematically denying the historical legitimacy of Ukraine as a sovereign state.In the eyes of many people, this may just be a political campaign. But in the eyes of intelligence analysts, this is a clear signal to pave the way for public opinion and mobilize ideas for military operations.
They also closely follow the legislative process of the Russian State Duma.
When a bill authorizing the use of military power overseas was put on the agenda and finally passed, it was seen as a key legal step in preparing for war, meaning the "green light" for action had been lit.
Even train transponder signals of GPS, railway transportation schedules and route maps of commercial airlines have become tracking tools.
It is through these public data that analysts accurately drew a complete road map and timetable for the Russian ace troops to be transported thousands of miles from distant Rostov to Belarus by train.
Combined with the map, an offensive route from the Belarusian border, through the Chernobyl radiation zone, and straight to Kiev was clearly simulated.
Getting information is one thing, how it is used is another.
Drawing lessons from the slow response to the Crimea incident in 2014, This time, the Biden administration chose a completely different path: to take action and make intelligence public.
Starting in the autumn of 2021, a well-planned "intelligence diplomacy" series begins.
The White House and the State Department systematically disclosed a large amount of sensitive intelligence through press conferences and "feeding" mainstream media such as The New York Times and The Washington Post.
From satellite photos to troop size, from logistical preparations to specific offensive road maps, Russia's plan was almost "live" in front of the world.
Russia's "blind spot": a fatal shortcoming in the information age
In sharp contrast to the open and shared intelligence network of the United States, there are serious problems in intelligence coordination and internal communication exposed by Russia.
Due to the strict confidentiality work, information cannot be effectively circulated within the Russian army, forming an "information island."
A large number of mid-level officers and grassroots soldiers believed that this was just an exercise until the moment before the start of the war.
They knew nothing about the real objectives of the mission and the plan of action, leading to chaos in command and morale at the beginning of the war, and even the chaos scene of tanks running out of fuel and troops lost direction.
In addition, serious misjudgments at the strategic level are also exposed. Russia seriously underestimated Ukraine's will to resist and the leadership of then-President Zelensky, and also overestimated the role of pro-Russian forces within UkraineIn the fantasy, the scene "in the outside" did not appear.
According to reports, Enormous amounts of money spent on infiltration and acquisition in Ukraine have been swallowed up by internal corruption.When the war broke out, the anticipated internal forces instantly disintegrated.
This intelligence war ultimately ended with the United States 'near-perfect prediction.
As of August 2025, the conflict is still ongoing and the situation has changed several times.
The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been replaced by Alexander Silsky by Valery Zaružene, who has been transferred to the post of ambassador to the UK.
But no matter how the battle scene evolved, the thrilling intelligence game before the start of the war has been listed as a classic case.
It eloquently proves that In the conflicts between major powers in the 21st century, information superiority has become one of the core factors determining the direction of the war situation.
The victory in a war depends not only on the aircraft cannons on the battlefield, but also on who can grab information faster and more accurately and use it more effectively.
The U.S. "Nibb Prophet", rather than predicting the future, actively shaped the process of the beginning of the war through the innovative strategy of "intelligence arming".
Source: U.S. high-profile hype Russia will "invad" Ukraine, what's comfortable?
2022-02-14 11:33 Strait Shinkansen