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Editor | L.Y.
Preliminary
Former Syrian President Bashar al-Bashar who fled to Moscow, who did it?
In December last year, the Syrian civil war broke out, and the Syrian President Bashar, who failed to get the full support of both Russia and Iran’s allies, eventually had to go to Russia and live a life of escape.
Although Russian officials have not yet issued an official statement on this matter, videos taken by local people in Moscow show that many military ambulances have frequently entered and exited the military hospital recently, and soldiers armed with live ammunition have been added to patrol around the hospital. The overall security level is significantly higher than usual. Arab News, a media in the Middle East, further disclosed that the medical team treating Bashar was composed of top toxicologists from the Russian military, and all the team members signed a strict confidentiality agreement, prohibiting any treatment details to the outside world.
Previously, Bashar's public appearances in Russia have been significantly reduced. The most recent time he appeared in public was in June 2025, when he met with a small number of exiled Syria officials in a villa on the outskirts of Moscow. He looked haggard in the video, which was significantly different from his previous public appearances.
Background backtracking
The current situation in Bashar was caused by the re-emergence of the Syrian civil war in December 2024.At that time, the Syrian opposition launched a massive offensive with the support of external forces, while the allies of Russia and Iran, who have long relied on the Bashar government, did not provide their full support as before.
Russia only maintained the defense of its air base in Syria and did not send ground troops to participate in combat; Iran has significantly reduced its weapons and financial assistance to the Bashar government due to its domestic economic difficulties. In the absence of dual support, the Bashar government's military defense line quickly collapsed, and opposition forces quickly approached the capital Damascus.
In January 2025, with the secret assistance of the Russian military, Bashar and his core family members evacuated from Damascus on a military plane and eventually arrived in Moscow, Russia, to begin a life of exile.
At first, Russia provided Bashar with relatively generous treatment, arranging for him a luxury villa on the outskirts of Moscow, equipped with a dedicated security team, and allowing him to maintain limited contact with exiled Syria officials. At that time, it was widely believed that Russia accepted Bashar on the one hand because of "moral considerations" for past allies, and on the other hand because it hoped to retain a certain voice in the future political process of Syria by controlling Bashar.
However, with the gradual stabilization of the new Syrian regime, Bashar's "utilization value" began to decline. In March 2025, the new Syrian regime signed a series of cooperation agreements with Russia, including allowing Russia to use Tartus Naval Base and Khmeimim Air Base for a long time, while handing over part of Syria's energy development rights to Russian companies. The signing of these agreements has rapidly heated up the relationship between Russia and the new Syrian regime. As a "symbol of the former regime", Bashar has gradually become an "embarrassing existence" in the contacts between Russia and the new Syrian regime.
Russia's inclination towards Syria's new regime
From a geostrategic perspective, Russia hopes to strengthen its military presence in the Middle East by strengthening its relationship with the new Syrian regime.The Tartus Naval Base is Russia’s only naval base in the Mediterranean Sea, which is important for Russia’s energy security in the Middle East and the deterrence of NATO’s expansion to the east; and the Hemeim Air Force Base is an important pillar of Russia’s fight against extremist organizations in the Middle East, retaining the right to use these two bases and is Russia’s core interests in Syria.
At the level of economic interests, the new Syrian regime promised to grant the exploitation rights of several large domestic oil and gas fields to Russian energy companies. According to Russia's Kommersant, Gazprom has reached an agreement with the new Syrian regime and obtained a 25-year exploitation right for oil and gas fields in the Euphrates River Basin in eastern Syria. The proven oil reserves in this area account for about 30% of Syria's total reserves. In addition, Russian enterprises have also obtained the priority right to participate in infrastructure reconstruction in Syria, involving reconstruction projects in roads, bridges, power facilities and other fields. The total investment scale is expected to exceed US $5 billion.
In contrast, continuing to support Bashar has gradually become a "burden" for Russia. In addition to having to bear the living and security expenses of Bashar and his family, Bashar's existence may also cause dissatisfaction among the new regime in Syria and affect the cooperation process between the new regimes in Russia and Syria. A Russian diplomat said anonymously,"In cooperation with the new regime in Syria, Bashar has changed from a 'bargaining chip' to an 'obstacle.'"This change in attitude has laid the foundation for Bashar's current dangerous situation.
Multi-party reaction
After the news of Bashar's suspected poisoning came out, the reactions of the international community and Syria showed obvious differentiation. As an important ally of Bashar in the past, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said at a regular press conference on September 28th that it "paid close attention to Bashar's health and hoped that Russia could guarantee his personal safety", and called on "the international community to attach importance to the protection of the rights and interests of exiled politicians". Iranian media suggested that Bashar's experience may be related to "intervention by external forces", and it is not ruled out that some countries have taken actions to "please the new Syrian regime".
The new regime in Syria remained silent on this matter and did not make any comments or make any relevant response. However, public opinion on social media in Syria is polarized. People who support Bashar believe that Bashar is the "legitimate president of Syria" and that his danger in Russia is "a violation of Syrian national dignity"; while people who oppose Bashar say that Bashar's exile is "self-inflicted" and that his current situation "has nothing to do with the new Syrian regime" and should not be paid too much attention.
When asked about the incident, a U.S. State Department spokesman said only that he “was aware of the relevant reports but did not comment on unconfirmed news”; while the EU stressed that “the future of Syria should be decided independently by the Syrian people”, without mentioning Bashar’s specific situation. This attitude reflects that Western countries have long abandoned their support for the Bashar regime, and are not willing to influence the potential interaction with Russia in other areas due to Bashar’s personal situation.
conclusion
As Russia’s relationship with the new regime in Syria continues to deepen, Bashar, as a “problem of the legacy of the former regime,” will be increasingly affected by the relationship between the new regime in Russia and Syria. If Russia’s cooperation with the new regime in Syria continues to advance, Bashar’s “existence value” may further decrease, and his life treatment and security in Russia will face more uncertainty.
From the broader geographical pattern of the Middle East, the Bashar events also reflect profound changes in the power structure in the Middle East. The traditional “strong man politics” pattern gradually loses the market, the way external forces interfere in the Middle East, and also the shift from the former “support agents” to “direct interest cooperation”.
At present, there is still no definite news about Bashar's specific health status, and the silence of Russian officials has further aggravated the speculation of the outside world. No matter what the final result is, what happened to Bashar has sounded the alarm for politicians in the Middle East: in the complicated geopolitical game, the so-called "alliance relationship" is often based on interests, and once the interest pattern changes, personal destiny may also be reversed.
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