U.S. Vice President Vance recently spoke hard on TV, saying that Russia is out of chance, its economy is about to collapse, and it has not gained any benefits on the battlefield. It is time to "recognize the reality".
It sounds like Ukraine is sure to win, and many Western media have followed suit.
But on the other hand, British media quietly cast out a data: Ukraine has lost 3,500 square kilometers of land this spring and summer.
This is not a small number, especially when the war is about to enter the fourth year and the Ukrainian army is already tired.
What is hidden behind political rhetoric
Vance's speech is actually not just a casual remark. He is now the vice president of the United States, and what he says is definitely not nonsense. His words sounded as if Russia had been cornered and was about to retreat, but after careful consideration, this was more like political rhetoric than the actual situation of the battlefield.
The U.S. government, no matter what it says, is really anxious.
Ukraine has been fighting for four years, and the West has invested a lot of human and material resources, but the situation has not developed in the direction they imagined.
On the other hand, the original assumption was that Russia would be dragged down economically and if there were internal problems, the war would naturally not be able to last. But now it looks at it, although Russia also has difficulties, it has not yet reached the point of collapse. Instead, it is playing steadily on the front line, which makes the Western "script" a bit difficult to perform.
So now the strategy of the United States has also changed, from the initial "wooing diplomacy" to "high-pressure propaganda". Vance's words are not only for Russia, but also for the American people.
Internally, we should convince everyone that the money spent on aiding Ukraine has not been wasted; Externally, let allies continue to follow and don't fall behind; Russia is a psychological warfare, trying to undermine the confidence of the other side through public opinion.
But the problem is, no matter how beautiful the political language is, it can't hide the actual situation on the battlefield. In the final analysis, war is not about whoever wins. It depends on who gets the territory, who suffers more casualties, and who can hold up the resources.
The battlefield situation is not so optimistic
If you only listen to the U.S. side, the Ukraine side seems to be quite stable, but look at recent reports in British media, this is not the case at all.
The report said that Ukraine has lost 3,500 square kilometers of land this spring and summer, which is not a small number, especially now that under this sticky state, any small advance means huge costs and costs.
The Ukrainian army is indeed in the defensive stage at present, and it is the kind of defense under great pressure. The Russian army does not carry out any large-scale raids now, but pushes forward little by little every day, like cutting sausages.
Although the speed is slow, the trick works. Especially in places such as northeastern and southern Ukraine, the pace of Russian advance is very stable and the purpose is very clear, that is, to establish buffer zones little by little or even completely control key sea and land routes.
This is the most difficult way for Ukraine to deal with: fatigue, insufficient personnel, and tension in the supply of ammunition are all real problems.
While the West continues to provide support, the pace and scale of support has not been as decisive as in previous years.Many countries in Europe are also beginning to experience “war fatigue” and the patience for continued aid is declining.
On the Russian side, although it is also under pressure, the advancement of the battlefield shows that they have a certain tactical initiative. They are not in a hurry to conquer Ukraine, but fight slowly and strive for every inch of land.
The "Russian failure theory" called by the West is not reflected on the battlefield map.
This leads to an interesting phenomenon: Western politicians say that Russia has lost, but the map tells us that Ukraine is losing its actual control zone.
If this trend continues, Ukraine could really lose its strategic path and even face the risk of being “internalized.”
Another war in the field of public opinion
In addition to the confrontation on the battlefield, information warfare is also an increasingly important part of this conflict. Western media can be said to be experienced in this regard, they know when to high-propaganda and when to silence.
The current public opinion atmosphere is this: Ukraine must win, that’s morally correct; Russia must lose, that’s the political bottom line. So in the mainstream Western media, Ukraine’s losses are rarely loudly, even if the situation on the battlefield has been tightened, or just spoken out in a vague way.
The ones who really analyze the situation in detail are often those specialized military or geo-research institutions, which have little influence in public opinion.
Why is this happening? Because once it is acknowledged that Ukraine is losing ground, public support for the war may decline. Especially in the United States and Europe, ordinary people are not fools. Seeing that the war has dragged on for so long, spent so much money, and there is no result, they will naturally question the policy direction.
This is a risk for politicians, so they prefer to use the expressions "Ukraine is strong in resistance" and "Russia is stuck in a quagmire" to create an atmosphere of "victory in sight".
But this approach also has consequences. Public opinion and reality have been separated for a long time, and public confidence is difficult to re-establish once it collapses. And if one day the situation suddenly worsen and more land is lost, Western people may feel that they are "blurred" and the willingness to continue aid will decline further.
The Western speech strategy on the Ukrainian issue is very clever, selectively presenting content, and the purpose is not to let you know the truth, but to let you accept the impression they want to convey.
This operational skill is indeed high, but it also highlights a problem: they themselves know that they do not have full control of the situation on the battlefield.
Today's information warfare is no longer about "who is right", but about "who can persuade more people." As for what happens on the battlefield, it is actually difficult for ordinary people to see the truth and can only listen to the media. But the question is, is what the media is saying the truth or the "truth" that they want you to believe?
Who loses and who wins? It's not yet time to make a conclusion
Now that Ukraine has won, it is indeed somewhat blatant.Al the U.S. high-ranking speech is tough, the Ukrainian government is also trying to maintain confidence at home and abroad, but the reality of losing ground on the battlefield is placed there and nobody can hide it.
The current pressure faced by Ukraine is multi-faceted: military tensions, material tensions, morality are also falling. The West, although it says it supports the end, but in reality the pace and intensity of aid is not as positive as it was before.
While Russia also faces economic pressures and war losses, its strategic goals remain clear and the pace has not slowed.
In fact, the direction of this war has changed from the initial "who can win" to "who can last longer". As for whether to cease fire or negotiate, this decision is not completely decided by Ukraine itself.
There is a strategic game behind the U.S., Europe and even more countries.
So the question now is not who wins and who loses, but whether the war will end in an acceptable way. If everyone continues to gamble and delay, no one may be the real winner in the end.
War is not won by shouting slogans, nor can it be ended by diplomatic rhetoric. Whoever controls the territory, who keeps the resources, and who can support the public opinion is the real key to victory or defeat. Saying that Ukraine won may be more of a hope than a reality. And this "hope", if there is no actual support, will eventually turn into disappointment.
The most necessary thing now is not to continue to shout slogans, but to go back to reality, look at the map, look at human life, see who is willing to continue to carry on. This is the key to determine the future situation. Who wins, must wait for the dust to settle again, rather than by whose voice can be decided.
Source: Wences quickly followed, claiming that Russia must “conscious” and accept reality. —2025-09-29 10:33; Observer Network