The argument that “it’s something about South China” appears occasionally in the public opinion, but there is a substantial difference with China’s consistent stance on this controversial issue.
As the Russian-Japanese sovereignty dispute around the South Chili Islands (the four northern islands) continues to heat up, ranging from real-time naval exercises to diplomatic discourse, China's Foreign Ministry's repeated statements have drawn clear red lines.
This issue belongs to the bilateral scope of Russia and Japan, and the Chinese side adheres to its neutral stance, neither to intervene in territorial disputes, nor to “shake chest for fire” for any side, this stance stems from respect for historical facts and international law, but also highlights China’s realistic consideration of safeguarding regional peace and stability.
Southern Kuril Islands dispute
The roots of the dispute over the South Kuril Islands can be traced back to the construction of the international order after World War II. The core basis of its sovereignty is the victory of the anti-fascist war.
The archipelago, which consists of the four islands of the aftermath of the country, the Shetland, and the Danube, with an area of 5,000 square kilometers, not only has a value of up to $45.8 billion in fisheries and mineral reserves, but also occupies the throat of the Oaxaca Sea and the Pacific Ocean, and is of strategic importance.
According to international conventions such as the Yalta Agreement and the Potsdam Declaration, the Soviet Union took over the archipelago after the end of World War II, and in 1991 Russia inherited practical control, an arrangement that constituted an important part of the post-war international order.
However, Japan claims sovereignty on the grounds of "first come, first served" and tries to deny the framework of international law after World War II. This difference in historical cognition has become the core crux of the dispute that is difficult to reconcile.
Japan has always liked to hang on its mouths the Treaties of 1875 and the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1951, repeatedly stressing that this is their “inherent territory”, trying to build a seemingly complete set of historical narratives, which are the main tools they use to propel the international public opinion and generate sympathy.
But Russia does not buy this at all. Moscow's logic is simple and crude, and the results of World War II are beyond doubt. They cling to the two documents of the Yalta Agreement and the Potsdam Proclamation and define control of the South Kuril Islands as the fruit of victory in the anti-fascist war.
This is not just an occupation, but also a declaration of "historical justice." Anyone who doubts is a challenge to the entire international order after World War II.
At the same time, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian also clearly emphasized in response to Japan's questions that the achievements of World War II and the principles of international law should be respected. This statement is neither biased towards Russia nor accommodating Japan, but a commitment to the foundation of the international order.
The outer dispute.
When the "legal lever" of reason was completely out of play, the most primitive and dangerous "deterrent lever", military power, was pushed to the front. Now both sides are frantically adding weight to this lever. Everyone wants to overwhelm the other, and the result is that the entire region is pushed to the brink of high risk.
Japan's move is big, this year's defense budget has jumped directly to 8.7 trillion yen, making a record high for three consecutive years, and is rushing towards the breakthrough of the GDP's 2% percentage alert line, saying in the mouth "determined defense", but the body is very honestly turned to "active containment".
The bulk of the increase in military expenditure, a full 76%, has been spent on developing long-range strike capabilities and accelerating the installation of F-35 fighter jets and long-range missiles. They even openly discussed the need to have "counterattack capabilities" against disputed islands, and their missile range has been able to steadily cover that area.
Japan feels that because of the war in Ukraine, Russia has deployed about 30% of its troops from the Far East Military District to the European front line, which has left them with an excellent "window of opportunity". They want to take advantage of this defensive vacuum period to severely leverage the military. Add your own weight on it.
However, Russia is not a vegetarian. Although its troops are reduced, they have used "asymmetric" deterrence and deployed the S-300V4 air defense missile system on the key Itorofu Island.
On Guohou Island, not only were new observation posts built, but the "Fort" shore-based anti-ship missiles were also directly installed. These are all "trump card" level weapons, and the meaning is very clear. You have many people, but I can kill you with one strike.
Previously, the Russian army even conducted a military exercise with a scale of 3,000 people in the disputed island area. The meaning of deterrence is self-evident.
So a dangerous cycle formed, Japan felt organic multiplication, crazy add-on, and Russia with more cutting-edge weapons to counteract, this military deterrent lever, becoming more and more heavy, also more and more fragile, a little careless, could completely collapse.
More complicated, this bilateral dispute has been involved in a broader geo-game: on the occasion of the third anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU 27 countries, the United States, the UK and other 33 countries formed a hybrid war siege against Russia, and Japan followed the pace of the United States to participate in multiple rounds of sanctions against Russia, leading to Russian-Japanese relations to the ice point.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Trutnev revealed that he would build a World War II memorial hall on Chamshou Island in the North Kuril Islands and invited China officials to attend the September commemoration. Although this move did not involve the four core islands of the dispute, it was regarded by Japan as a signal for Russia to win over China and strengthen its presence in the Far East, further exacerbating regional tensions.
China's neutral position
In the face of the continuous escalation of the situation, China's neutral stance is clearly demonstrated through specific statements and actions. Some public opinion wants to drag China into the process, precisely because they do not understand China's core stance.
China’s concern is not to whom these islands belong, but to the authoritative foundations of the entire post-war international order, such as the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Declaration, the stability of this lever, the legitimacy of the whole victory in the Second World War, which is in China’s core interests.
Therefore, at the end of May, when the military confrontation between Russia and Japan was most intense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China reiterated at a regular press conference that the South Kuril Islands issue is a bilateral relationship between Russia and Japan and should be properly resolved by both sides through peaceful negotiations. Any interference from external forces will only aggravate tensions.
This position is not an empty diplomatic statement, but is reflected in practical actions: for the invitation of the Russian side to attend the Occupy Island Memorial, the Chinese side sent only low-level persons to attend, and made it clear that "only to commemorate the victory of the Second World War, does not involve territorial dispute positions."
This impartial attitude is in sharp contrast to the hype of some public opinions that "China should side with Russia", and it also makes the outside world clearly perceive China's firmness in refusing to be tied into disputes.
Behind the red line drawn by China is the dual adherence to the principle of "non-interference in internal affairs" and its own interests. China and Russia maintain a strategic cooperative relationship, but this relationship has never included the clause of "taking additional responsibility for the interests of the other party".
As a military power, Russia has deployed radar stations, missile systems and air bases in the South Chili Islands, with the ability to independently maintain practical control, without the need for intervention of other countries.
Based on China's own interests, peace and stability in Northeast Asia are directly related to the surrounding security environment and economic and trade development. In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between China and Japan will exceed US$300 billion.
China is Japan’s largest trading partner, while Russia is China’s major energy supplier, and any turbulence on either side could impact China’s economic interests.
More importantly, China has always adhered to the bottom line of "safeguarding the fruits of victory in World War II." The Potsdam Proclamation clearly stipulates that Japan's territory is limited to Honshu, Shikoku, Kyushu and Hokkaido.
If Japan breaks through this framework to seize the islands by military means, it will pose a challenge to the international order, when China’s intervention will also be based on upholding international rules, rather than “chestling in the fire” for Russia.
conclusion
In the current geographical pattern, the strategic calculations of the parties have complicated the dispute, and the game of power in the South Chili Islands has shown a dangerous imbalance.
It is worth noting that although China refuses to intervene in the territorial dispute, it has actively promoted the construction of regional security cooperation mechanisms, whether "South Chili Island has something" is equivalent to "China has something", the answer is already clear in the Chinese side's red line.
When the dispute is only a bilateral territorial dispute between Russia and Japan, China adheres to neutrality, and in the complex geo-game, this awake position choice is both respect for historical facts and the protection of its own interests, but also a key support for safeguarding stability in Northeast Asia.
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The source:
China: The issue of the South Chili Islands is a question of bilateral relations between Russia and Japan, and should be properly resolved by both sides.
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