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Editor | L.Y.
Preliminary
Trump has become completely impatient with Russia recently. Not only has his attitude made a 180-degree turn, he has also given Putin a new nickname. Even the United States' position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict has changed accordingly-this wave of operations, even Zelensky called it "surprise".
Behind the title: A shift from mediation to pressure
Trump's change in attitude towards Putin and Russia is not without warning. In August, he also talked to Putin during a meeting in Alaska about “jointly pushing for a ceasefire,” even suggesting that Ukraine could be pressured to make concessions on territorial issues.But in September, a series of events gradually shifted its position.
Air friction between Poland, Estonia and Romania has continued with Russia, European allies have expressed strong dissatisfaction with Trump's simple classification of the drone crossing as a "mistake", Britain and Poland have threatened to shoot down Russian fighter jets directly, and the confidence gap between the United States and Europe is gradually expanding.
At a campaign rally on September 19, Trump expressed his disappointment with the results of the mediation for the first time, saying that "we spend too much time on meaningless conversations." Four days later, the title of "paper tiger" was officially put into effect, and a new judgment on the situation in Russia and Ukraine came with it: "With the support of the European Union and NATO, Ukraine is expected to win back all Ukraine and restore the status quo ante." This is in sharp contrast to previous statements of “consenting Ukraine to make concessions for peace,” which analysts view as a 180-degree shift in policy towards Russia.
This change involves multiple considerations. The concept of "expanding options to gain the initiative" emphasized by Trump in "The Art of the Deal" is particularly evident in this statement.
As the Russia-Ukraine peace talks reached a deadlock, he realized that it was difficult to achieve the core goal of "America first" through mediation alone, and instead put pressure on Putin through tough remarks-if Russia did not change its negotiating position, the United States might give up mediation and instead support the EU's peace plan for Ukraine. At the same time, this statement is also a reassurance to European allies, trying to repair the NATO trust system damaged by the previous "negative response".
Policy landing
The change in title quickly translates into specific policy actions. On September 17, Ukraine President Zelensky confirmed that he would receive the first batch of military assistance worth US$1 billion under the "Ukraine Priority Needs List" mechanism, including Patriot missiles and Hamas rocket launcher vehicles. The core of this new mechanism promoted by the Trump administration is "Europe pays the bill and the United States supplies it." It allows European NATO member states to bypass the lengthy US arms sales process and directly purchase US-made weapons to assist Ukraine. The first batch of aid has already arrived in the arsenal in Lviv, western Ukraine in late September.
NATO Senior Representative Patrick Turner confirmed to Reuters that the mechanism has committed more than $2 billion in aid and is expected to rise to $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion in October. Even more worrying, Trump suggested in his paper tiger speech that it could be possible to sell long-range weapons, missile defense systems and even fighter jets to Ukraine, meaning the scope of U.S. arms sales to Ukraine would be further expanded.U.S. officials have revealed that the approval process for arms sales has been accelerating, and some military-industrial enterprises have received preliminary production orders.
The increase in economic sanctions is also taking place simultaneously.The Trump team revealed that new sanctions against Russia’s energy and financial sectors are being plotted, focusing on the European transportation channels for Russian oil and gas exports. This contrasts with the previous strategy of “softening sanctions to leave room for negotiations,” showing a new idea of “suppressing negotiations.” Trump himself said in his September 19 speech that “the United States is profiting from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict” and also indicated the strategic consideration that continuing to consume Russia can bring short-term benefits to the United States in the energy and military industries.
Doubts and rejection of the situation.
The sudden change in Trump's attitude triggered a chain reaction. The Kremlin remained consistently tough in its response on the 24th. Presidential Press Secretary Peskov bluntly stated that "Russia's image is often associated with bears, and paper bears do not exist." He refuted the statement of "paper tigers" and emphasized that Russia's economy "has maintained resilience and macro stability", and special military operations "have no choice to defend national interests." At the same time, Russia expressed concern about the "new wave" of Western aid and believed that Trump's judgment on Ukraine's recovery of territory was a "serious misjudgment."
Zelensky openly expressed “surprise” at Trump’s remarks, reflecting the lack of effective communication with the Ukrainian side before the US policy adjustment. Although the Ukrainian military has expressed hope for new aid, there are still internal doubts about "whether it can really recover all the territory" - after all, the current situation on the battlefield has not seen a fundamental reversal, and the Russian side still controls some of the critical areas of eastern and southern Ukraine.
Germany and France welcomed the shift in U.S. attitude, saying it would help “consolidate NATO unity”, but also concerned that the U.S. would transfer more military aid costs to Europe. Eastern European countries, such as Poland, hope that the United States will go further, directly participating in military support to Ukraine, rather than just staying at the level of arms sales.These differences make it difficult for NATO to coordinate its policy on Ukraine not to be diminished by Trump’s remarks.
conclusion
The outside world also has many doubts about the sustainability of this policy shift. In the eight months since Trump took office, he has adjusted his policy towards Russia and Ukraine many times: from the initial mediation stance of pursuing the "Nobel Peace Prize" to pressuring Ukraine to make concessions, and then to today's tough support. The repeated positions have made Europe and Ukraine lack confidence in the stability of their policies. Some analysts pointed out that this may be just tactical pressure rather than a long-term strategy. As long as the core goal of "America First" remains unchanged, its policies may still be adjusted as the situation changes.
From "persuading peace" to calling Russia a "paper tiger", from single mediation to a two-pronged approach of "military aid + sanctions", the Trump administration's sudden change in attitude towards Russia and Ukraine is essentially a dynamic adjustment based on its own strategic interests. The title of "paper tiger" is not only a pressure on Putin, but also a response to internal and external conflicts, and the effect of subsequent military aid and sanctions will directly affect the direction of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. This policy earthquake triggered by the title is adding more uncertainty to the already complex Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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