The US federal government's "stagnation" is both an inevitable product of systemic design flaws and a concentrated embodiment of the polarized political ecology.

¡õ Author Wang Jin (Director, Center for International Strategic Studies, Northwest University)

According to CCTV news reports, at 0: 01 local time on October 1, the U.S. federal government closed again in nearly seven years. The direct reason is the differences between American political factions on the annual appropriation issue, which once again exposes the drawbacks of the American political system. Against the background of bipartisan politics and the polarization of American politics, the appropriation issue has led to the "politicization" of partisan differences and also exposed the political rift in the United States.

Since the 1970s, the U.S. federal government has "stopped" twenty times because of the Republican and Democratic two-party policy disagreements that resulted in an interruption of funding. The last "stoppage" occurred in late 2018 to early 2019, during Trump's first term, the Democratic Party opposed Trump's proposed funding for the U.S.-Mexico border wall project, and the two parties fought on immigration issues, leading to the government shutdown for 35 days.

The picture shows the White House at night

This round of U.S. government shutdowns has been seen before. During Congressional negotiations at the end of September, both Democrats and Republicans refused to compromise.Temporary resolutions on short-term allocations also aborted due to party differences.

Since the domestic political "polarization" in the United States in recent years is becoming increasingly obvious, Democrats and Republicans will deepen the relevant political and social public opinion on tax, education, healthcare and other issues, so that the discussion of relevant topics not only involves the expertise itself, but also involves parties, ethnic groups, ideas and political colour.

In this situation, Either side tries to force concessions from the other side through a tough stance and hopes to blame the other side in the field of public opinion.Some lawmakers are more inclined to maintain a tough stance to cater to the primary pressure in their districts, thereby reducing the room for cross-party compromise. Even if the federal government falls into a "shutdown", relevant lawmakers may still continue to "tough" stance in order to gain more voter support.

At the institutional level, the negotiation of annual allocations has become a political node for the interplay of American parties, and in the context of political opposition, the opposition of annual allocations makes it easy for all parties to argue, falling into the "chicken game" pattern. All parties believe that when the allocations are coming to be temporary, the other party will give in the first place. In the end, when the parties are unwilling to compromise, it is often easy to lead to a "co-lose" situation.

Once the U.S. federal government "shuts down", about 800,000 federal employees will be forced to take unpaid vacation, and contractor bills will not be paid in time. Although they can't be paid, people, including airport security personnel, air traffic controllers, service members of specific services, etc., must continue to go to work as "essential workers". For low-income families, the blow will come sooner. Transportation, travel, medical care, public health, etc. will all be affected.

More importantly, the repeated government "shutdowns" in recent years may cause the American public to question the credibility and effectiveness of the U.S. domestic political system. The "shutdown" of the U.S. federal government is not only an inevitable product of flaws in institutional design, but also a concentrated expression of the polarized political ecology. Without structural reform and political compromise will, this cyclical crisis may repeat itself and become a lingering shadow in American political life.

(This article is the author's personal opinion and does not represent the media's position)

Editor of Dawn.

Review by Feng Shui

Extended reading

US Government Officially ¡°Closed¡± Trump: It May Bring ¡°Many Benefits¡±

As the U.S. Senate on September 30 vetoed the two-party allocation bill, the federal government has closed again for seven years, hundreds of thousands of federal employees had to face compulsory leave or dismissal, and the services of many federal departments have also "stopped".

On the evening of 30 local time, White House Administration and Budget Office (OMB) director Walter Watts issued a memorandum instructing government agencies to begin implementing their plans for an ¡°orderly shutdown.¡±Untouched departments include law enforcement agencies such as the military, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Ministry of Homeland Security, the Federal Aviation Administration and the Postal Office.

Republicans in the Senate will vote on the provisional funding bill on October 1.

Republicans in the Senate have decided to hold a procedural vote on the Republican provisional funding bill and the Democratic proposal on October 1st, depending on the scheduled voting schedule, the Senate may hold a session until October 3 or 4 (apart from October 2), and the House of Representatives will not hold a meeting this week.

Thun, the Republican leader of the Senate, hopes that five more Democratic senators will support the Republican proposal on October 1st, but he denies amending the contents of the bill to win more Democratic votes.

The operating funds of the U.S. federal government should have come from annual budget allocations. Both parties in Congress should usually pass new annual appropriations bills before the start of the new fiscal year on October 1. However, due to fierce fighting between the two parties in recent years, it is often impossible to reach an agreement in time, so Congress tried to temporarily maintain the federal government through temporary appropriations bills. In the past year, the U.S. federal government has faced multiple "shutdown" crises. In December 2024 and March 2025, Congress passed short-term spending bills hours before federal government funds were exhausted.

Senate Republicans will vote again on the interim appropriations bill on October 1

What impact will the "shutdown" of the US federal government have?

In the United States, although a government shutdown is nothing new, the risk of shutdown this year is different from previous years, and the behind-the-scenes logic is more complex.

Once the U.S. federal government "shuts down", about 800,000 federal employees will be forced to take unpaid vacation, and contractor bills will not be paid in time.

For low-income families, the blow will come sooner.

Transportation, travel, medical care, public health, etc. will all be affected.

The wider economic costs should not be overlooked.

The U.S. government has been ¡°closed¡± 20 times in half a century, the last time it was during Trump¡¯s term.

Since the 1970s, the U.S. federal government has been ¡°stopping¡± twenty times because of the two-party policy disagreements that led to the disruption of funds. The last and longest ¡°stop¡± occurred in late 2018 to early 2019, during Trump¡¯s first term, the Democratic Party opposed Trump¡¯s proposed U.S. Mexican Border Wall program, and the two parties fought on immigration issues, leading to the government shutdown for 35 days. At the time, about a quarter of federal government agencies ¡°stop¡± for five weeks, and reached more than 800,000 government employees, with economic losses estimated at more than $10 billion.

In terms of public opinion in the United States, several polls show that most Americans see the government's "shutdown" as an irresponsible political act, using power stagnation to manipulate public institutions.

TRUMP: We don¡¯t want to ¡°close.¡± But the US government¡¯s ¡°closure¡± could bring ¡°many benefits.¡±

According to media reports such as Bloomberg and USA Today, US President Trump said on Tuesday (September 30th) local time that the government's "shutdown" may bring "many benefits", which caused controversy among netizens.

"The last thing we want to do is to shut down the (government). But a shutdown can also bring many benefits. We can get rid of a lot of things that we don't want, and those things are Democratic things." Trump responded to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House that day. In addition, he accused Democrats of "not learning lessons" and therefore he "had no choice."

Trump claims that the government's "shutdown" may bring "many benefits" data map

In the video commentary area on the social platform X, there are netizens who agree with Trump¡¯s viewpoint; but there are netizens who disagree, saying it is ¡°crazy.¡±

The U.S. Senate failed to pass a temporary allocation bill on the evening of September 30, meaning that the federal government is likely to start "stop" from midnight a few hours after local time, which would be the first "stop" of the federal government in seven years earlier that day, Republicans and Democrats did not negotiate but continued to blame each other, saying the other side forced the government to "stop".

According to AP, the federal agencies have begun to issue emergency plans in response to a possible ¡°shutdown¡±, detailing which offices will continue to operate and which employees will be forced to leave. The White House said the government¡¯s ¡°stop-up¡± could lead to massive governmental cuts. The Trump administration has previously threatened to permanently dismiss those ¡°unnecessary¡± federal employees who have not received funding instead of giving them temporary leave. The White House Administration and Budget Office has asked the agencies to revise their emergency plans, clearly listing those who will be dismissed during the ¡°stop-up¡±.

It is understood that the last and longest "stop" of the U.S. federal government occurred at the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, during Trump's first term, the Democrats opposed Trump's proposed border wall project appropriations, and the two parties fought on immigration issues, leading to the government shutdown for 35 days.