The Paper journalist Nie Shuyi

Just as the United States and India announced the resumption of stalled trade negotiations, India suffered another wave of blows from the United States.

According to the Global Times, according to the latest U.S. decision on Iran¡¯s Chabahar port operating in India, from September 29, Indian individuals and who work or engage in related activities in the port could face sanctions.This makes the first overseas port project in India, and even India¡¯s planned ¡°Northern Corridor¡± connectivity program, facing a more uncertain future.

The lifting of sanctions exemptions to Chabahar port is the latest U.S. move to repress and coerce India in recent months.Washington isThere are constant frictions and disputes with New Delhi, and relations between the two countries continue to decline. According to US media reports, on September 28, local time, US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick issued a threat that India "needs to be repaired."

Wang Feng, a researcher at the National Institute of Strategic Research at Qingdao University, said in an interview with the press that Trump's continued pressure on India since the opening of the second term, is actually the result of India's declining position in the U.S. national strategy, "Trump's policy changes have led to India's ranking and importance in the U.S. strategy decline."At the same time, there is a conflict of interest between the U.S. and India, the contradiction and distrust between Trump and Modi have intensified, and ultimately led to the relationship between the two countries.

Indian Prime Minister Modi

Liu Zongyi, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies and director of the Center for South Asia Studies, told The Paper that since the beginning of his second term, Trump has hoped to continuously put pressure on India and ultimately force India to "contribute and work actively to serve the United States 'Indo-Pacific Strategy" and become a' small follower 'similar to Japan."However, for Modi, his domestic political status and his own political interests determine that India will not significantly compromise with the United States. In the future, relations between the two countries "will not return to the Biden administration even if they are eased."

India's connectivity strategy suffers a "fatal blow"

The U.S. government announced today that it will revoke the sanctions exemption for Iran's Chabahar port. According to The Hindu News Agency, U.S. Secretary of State rubio announced on September 18th that as part of a series of measures taken by the United States to "exert extreme pressure on Iran", the United States has revoked the sanctions exemption introduced in 2018 under the Iran Freedom and Non-Proliferation Act (IFCA). The decision will take effect Sept. 29.

Chabahar Port is located along the Gulf of Oman on the southeastern coast of Iran, only 550 nautical miles (about 1000 kilometers) from the important port of Kandra in Gujarat, India. Indian media said that this port provides India with convenient access to Afghanistan, Central Asia, Russia and Europe that bypasses Pakistan, and is a key node in India's "North-South Corridor" plan. Since 2016, India has invested heavily in this project, having invested 2 billion rupees (approximately 160 million yuan). The port's throughput has been growing steadily, and government officials and experts had hoped that the port's full operation would significantly boost trade, tax revenue and enhance Delhi's strategic influence.

Today India news site said the time for the waiver was very bad because India had just signed a 10-year port operating contract with Iran in May 2024, and India invested about $3.7 billion in the project through investment and international financing. The report quoted U.S. foreign policy expert Michael Kugelmann as saying that the U.S. move was ¡°a strategic blow to India.

According to Qian Feng's analysis, the lifting of sanctions on Chabahar Port continues the recent momentum of the United States' continuous pressure on India. Chabahar Port has played a very important role in India's westward strategy. It has played an important role in India's "expanding its influence on Afghanistan and Central Asia and resolving energy import risks." "The United States also knows the importance of (Chabahar Port) to India, so it also uses this to further put pressure on India."

Liu Zongyi said that the lifting of the United States 'sanctions exemption on Chabahar Port would have a "very serious impact" on India. He said that in the past few years, the construction of Chabahar Port and the interconnection plan proposed by India have been progressing slowly, and U.S. sanctions have further affected the sustainability of the project."The construction of Chabahar Port requires not only India's own investment, it also hopes to attract investment from other countries. After the United States implements sanctions, other countries will definitely not dare to invest. With India's own financial resources and capabilities, it will be difficult to advance the project."

"This blow to the project is'fatal '," Liu Zongyi said. "It is also fatal to India's strategy of starting from Chabahar Port, connecting Central Asia and the Caucasus through the' North-South Corridor ', and leading to Russia and Europe."

The US-India relationship may become ¡°more and more tough¡±

In fact, the U.S. lifted sanctions exemptions to Chabahar port, pouring a slice of cold water into the recent cooling Indian-American relations. The past few months between the U.S. and Indian-American tensions and frictions have long made the once "decisive partnership of the 21st century" also the "objects to be repaired". and after the U.S. punitive tariffs on India in August, India has a "intensive" "special" relationship with the U.S., becoming one of the only two countries to be imposed 50% tariffs by Washington, the ambitious goal set by Modi and Trump in early 2030 to raise the bilateral trade volume of the two countries to $50 billion, and now few people have raised.

According to India¡¯s ¡°the Wire¡± news network, when Trump and Modi ended the G7 meeting in Canada, in a 35-minute conversation, Trump invited Modi to visit the United States before he returned to India, according to reports that Trump hoped Modi would be in Washington on June 18 with the Pakistani army chief of staff who visited, and said that he was the mediator of the ceasefire in Pakistan and should therefore be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.

In a speech to the 80th General Assembly on September 23, Trump once again boasted that he ended seven wars over the past seven months, including a new round of conflict in India in May, and accused India of continuing to buy Russian oil as a ¡°sponsor¡± of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

On September 25th, Trump held talks at the White House Oval Office with Pakistani Prime Minister Khabaz and Pakistani Army Chief of Staff and Army Chief Marshal Munir. According to a statement issued by the Pakistani Prime Minister¡¯s Office, Khabaz praised Trump as a ¡°pacifist¡± in the talks, thanked him for mediating the Indian Army ceasefire, and officially invited Trump to visit Pakistan. The Indian Times wrote: ¡°Most of Trump¡¯s political career has been mocking Pakistan as a fraudulent terrorist haven ... But the photos released by the Pakistani showed that Khabaz and Munir sat in the brilliant Oval Office for an allegedly lasting 80 minutes of talks, and then laughed and raised a thumb.

Liu Zongyi said that the reversal of U.S. -Indian relations during Trump's second term was the result of the adjustment of U.S. national strategy. He said that over the years, in addition to having common interests on the issue of "containing China," the United States and India have inconsistent interests in many areas,"including relations with Russia and Iran." In addition, since his second term, Trump has paid more attention to the United States itself, especially the goal of achieving "American reindustrialization" in his "America First" and the Indian government's hope that the global industrial chain will be transferred to India and the realization of "Made in India"."The conflict between 'America First' and 'India First' is fundamental."

"Coupled with Trump's observation that India was beaten to a pulp in the air war in May, he further strengthened his determination to completely 'suppress' India and turn India into a 'little follower' like Japan," Liu Zongyi analyzed.

According to Wang Feng, one of the core goals of Trump¡¯s geo-strategy during his first term was to ¡°pull up India¡¯s siege and hold onto China¡±, but now the White House¡¯s strategic focus is more focused on returning to the U.S. mainland and the Americas, which in fact has led to India¡¯s ranking and importance in the U.S. overall strategy declining.

¡°In addition to Trump¡¯s own preferences,¡± Wang said, ¡°the Modi administration and India are both trying to reduce or even eliminate Trump¡¯s role in the ceasefire in India, which makes Trump very unhappy.¡±

In response to US pressure, India returns to diversification policy

The picture shows US President Trump

Of course, in the face of aggressive pressure from the United States, India is not completely without the ability to fight back.

From September 22 to 24, the Indian delegation traveled to Washington and met with representatives of the US side to discuss a potential trade deal. According to a recent report by Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao, some Indian scholars believe that the United States and India will reach a trade agreement within a month or two, but neither side may be satisfied with the result. These scholars pointed out that the Indian government is making every effort to promote multilateral free trade agreement negotiations, actively diversify exports and reduce dependence on the single market to cope with the impact of US tariffs.

According to Indian media, under U.S. pressure, India is seeking more pragmatic cooperation with countries such as Russia.In recent contacts with ASEAN and African countries, India has also laid the foundation for a more complex and less U.S.-centric economic layout.

The picture shows the data map of Russian President Vladimir Putin

Liu Zongyi said that the India-Pakistan conflict in May actually exposed India's security weakness to the eyes of the international community."After this battle, India also knows that the only person it can rely on in the field of defense may be the United States." "If the Indian government still regards national security as a top priority in the future, cooperation with the United States will remain inevitable. So the ultimate direction is actually to see how India compromises with the United States. But in the final analysis, India-US relations will definitely not be as close as they were during the Biden administration."

From August 31 to September 1, Modi participated in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in 2025. This was Modi's first visit to China since 2018.

"India's recent series of diplomatic actions can be seen as a callback to the previous excessive inclination to the United States, because India also sees the risks of excessive inclination to the United States. After being suppressed by the United States, India began to implement diversified strategies in both economic cooperation and diplomatic strategy," Qian Feng pointed out. "Whether it is to further develop economic and trade cooperation with China, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN and Europe at the economic level, resist the impact of US tariffs through a diversified network of economic and trade cooperation, or continue the traditional friendly relations with Russia at the diplomatic level.

Editor of this issue Xing Tan