On October 1, 2025, the Chinese are immersed in the fireworks and laughter of the National Day, but the United States has fallen into a state of complete "closure".
Just late on September 30, the U.S. Congress again failed to pass the provisional allocation bill, and the federal government formally shut down.
What is even more interesting is that at this critical moment, while dealing with civil unrest, U.S. officials suddenly "showed kindness" to China, as if afraid that China would take the opportunity to "make up for it."
This gesture reveals the real anxiety behind the Trump administration’s internal diplomatic trouble.
The appropriation bill aborted, and the US government was deeply mired in the "shutdown vortex"
This time, the U.S. government shutdown was not an “accident”, but a new outbreak of political polarization. Republicans were dead in the House of Representatives, Democrats held the Senate, and the two parties fought out on the fiscal budget.
Medical insurance subsidies, immigration policies, border wall funding... each of them can cause a big quarrel. The final result is that the bill gets stuck in Congress and the government directly "cuts off power".
This is not a paper game, but a loss of real money. According to the Associated Press, about 800,000 federal employees have been forced to take unpaid leave or work without pay, national parks have been closed, passports and visas have been delayed, and even tourists traveling to the United States have been blocked outside embassies.
To make matters worse, Moody's Analytics estimates that for every week the government shuts down, the U.S. economy loses $6 billion to $7 billion. The stock market is unstable, corporate confidence is declining, and consumers are beginning to tighten their wallets.
For the people at the bottom, this is not just news, but a livelihood issue. Millions of low-income families who rely on food stamps, housing subsidies and other benefits are at risk of running out of food and cooking. When the government stopped, their lives also stopped.
Trump certainly does not want to see things get out of hand. According to US media, he has repeatedly urged Republican lawmakers to compromise and once threatened to permanently lay off federal agencies that "perform poorly." Unfortunately, no one bought this scare at this juncture. The party struggle remains as usual, the bill is sad, and the government can only "collapse".
Crisis time urgent "proof of good", screaming to China exposes strategic anxiety
Just hours before the government's imminent shutdown, a seemingly "unrelated" move raised concern.On the morning of October 1, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio sent a national congratulatory letter to China, with words much more gentle than ever.
He said "I hope that China and the United States continue to maintain constructive communication and promote the stability and progress of bilateral relations."To know, this Rubio, but a long-term strong representative of China, suddenly "changed his face", let people doubt what the motivation was.
Almost at the same time, U.S. Trade Representative Greer also spoke: “Al there will be no adjustment of tariffs against China in the near future, we are still looking forward to continuing consultations with the Chinese side on a fairer trade agreement.”
Behind this “abnormal” is a sophisticated political calculation.
On the one hand, the Trump administration is being overwhelmed by domestic outcry, stopping to become the export of people's anger. At this time, a gesture of "diplomatic rationality" can shift some attention and create an atmosphere of "we are struggling to maintain".
On the other hand, more importantly, the Trump team knows that China has cards in its hand. If Beijing chooses to "shoot" in trade, exchange rate or financial market at this time, the leaky ship of the United States may really sink.
What they are afraid of is not China's "sudden disaster", but China's "go-go", adding a little fire to the already turbulent situation, even a little bit.
There is another practical problem that has to be mentioned: American agricultural states are almost unable to hold on. According to the data of the American Farm Bureau Federation, due to the Sino-US trade war, the loss rate of soybean farms in some states exceeds 45%.
These agricultural states are Trump's important votes. As soon as the government shut down, the subsidies to these farmers also stopped. Trump knows better than anyone about their anger.
Therefore, this "good demonstration" against China is not a diplomatic courtesy, but a political pursuit.
China responded calmly and accurately hit the sore spot in the United States
Faced with the “cry” of the United States, China did not rush to respond, but instead chose to take more partial action.
Since the intensification of friction in China and the United States, China has begun to diversify imports of agricultural products.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the second quarter of 2025, the total amount of soybeans imported by China from Brazil, Argentina and other countries exceeded 30 million tons, a record high. This means that the share of U.S. soybeans in the China market has been greatly squeezed. Once taxation is resumed, farmers will have almost no way to fight back.
According to the latest TIC report from the U.S. Treasury Department, China’s U.S. debt holding has dropped to a decade-long low of $730.7 billion.
This is not a "selling tide", but it is enough to send a signal that if the United States continues to be in chaos, China will not pay for its fiscal deficit. The market is also sensitive, with the dollar exchange rate and bond interest rates fluctuating due to this movement.
Looking at the longer-term layout, China has not put all its eggs in the American basket. Trade with ASEAN and countries along the "the belt and road initiative" continues to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4% in the first three quarters of 2025. This makes China's position in the global industrial chain more stable, and even if Sino-US relations fluctuate, there is enough buffer space.
Therefore, China is not "looting in troubled waters", but has already taken precautions. Change the supply chain when it is time to change, reduce the holdings of U.S. debt when it is time to reduce, and find new markets when it is time to find. The so-called "mending the knife" actually means that when the other party itself is unstable, China just takes its own way.
Whether Trump shouts or shows kindness, after all, it's just a unilateral "self-talk". China's response is calm, restrained and sober.
conclusion
The shutdown of the U.S. government is the inevitable result of its internal political tear. In this chaos, the sudden "show of kindness" to China is just a helpless move by the Trump administration in the face of the real crisis.
China is not in the rhythm, but responds to everything in its own rhythm. No noise, no panic, but accurately hit the pain of the United States. The game between China and the United States is never solved by screaming, but to see who is more stable, who has more spirit.
This time, the U.S. has lost control, China has not handed out, but the situation has changed greatly.The future game will continue, but who is in control of the pace, who is in passive handling, is already unclear.