On the other hand, the international situation has been unpredictable in recent years. Modi has played well in the diplomatic arena, especially how to navigate between the United States and China, which has led many people to call themselves experts. Recently, the US media has been fond of bringing up this topic, saying that Modi has taught the West a lesson: if China, a big player, is present, the United States cannot really break ground with India.
It's right to think about it. India is no small player. The strategic position of South Asia is too critical. In the past ten years since Modi came to power, India's diplomacy has shifted from non-alignment to multi-directional alignment. On the surface, it is to balance all parties, but on the bottom, it is to realize geographical advantages. In 2023, he visited the United States and negotiated the transfer of F414 engines. In the past, the United States only gave NATO a hardcore share of core technology, but now it is giving the green light directly. Why? It's not because China is watching closely and the United States is afraid that India will fall that way.
After Trump came to power in 2025, the tariffs added to the whole of India to buy Russian oil, India confiscated soft, but moved closer to China and Russia.
Modi's multilateral approach, a smart turn in Indian diplomacy
After Modi came to power, India's diplomacy changed its course, no longer staring at the old set of non-alliances, but playing multilateral balance. In 2014, he just became prime minister, and began to draw close to the distance with the United States, when bilateral trade and defense cooperation was already on the stage. In 2005, the US-India nuclear agreement was signed, relations broke the ice, and by 2014 there was a lot of hot ties.
But Modi did not foolishly bet all of the United States. He knew that there were no eternal friends in the world, only eternal interests. Therefore, while establishing the "2+2 Dialogue" and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the United States, India maintains an old friendship with Russia. When something happened in Russia and Ukraine in 2022, the United States pressured Russia everywhere. What about India? I didn't buy it and continued to promote the procurement of S-400 air defense systems. The US media later analyzed that China's shadow is heavy here. If India is really forced by the United States and turns to China and Russia to cooperate, the United States 'Indo-Pacific strategy will be ruined.
You see, India’s multilateral route goes smoothly. In 2023, Modi visited the United States and talked about the transfer of the F414 turbine engine, directing General Electric to India to build a factory, mounted on the “glorious” MK2 fighter aircraft. This agreement bombarded the world, because the United States had previously given core military technology only to NATO, and now to India.
China in the South China Sea and the border movement is frequent, the United States urgently need India as a South Asian branch. In the same period, the United States and India also pushed "key emerging technology initiatives", from semiconductors to quantum computing, all is a real cooperation. Tata Group jointly with Meizu Technology to build semiconductor plants, the United States is also listed as overseas support projects.
But backwards, this multilateral alliance is not a mess, it is calculated. India and Russia's AK-203 rifle production line has been pushed forward, energy settled in rubles, from 30,000 barrels of Russian oil per day before the war in 2022 to 2 million barrels in 2024. Trump tariffs in 2025 plus India's imports have dropped, but the mechanism has not changed.
India's multilateral logic is clear, that is, it does not put eggs in one basket. The four-party dialogue with Japan and Australia will position the security mechanism and not upgrade the military alliance. During the Malabar military exercise, the United States wanted to normalize its confrontation with China, Russia and India, but India refused and insisted on loose cooperation. The US media said that this taught the West a lesson: India is not a vassal and has to give face. Modi knows that once everything falls to the United States, the cost will be high, Russia's military trade will be broken, and energy will be stuck.
The Chinese card behind the US concessions, the awkward relationship between the US and India
To put it bluntly, the concession of the United States to India is inseparable from China's line. In the S-400 incident in 2022, the U.S. Congress granted India an unprecedented exemption to bypass the CAATSA bill. The bill was finalized in 2017, prohibiting allies from buying weapons from Russia. Turkey and Iran were all recruited, with the exception of India.
The US media pointed out that China is expanding in the Indo-Pacific, while the United States is pulling India to contain it, preferring to endure Russia's tone. The Biden administration was under great pressure at the time, but it still signed an exemption to ensure that India would not fall eastward. In 2024, India was approved to buy MQ-9B drones worth US$4 billion, which is another backdoor. This is not only military trade, but also technology. Semiconductor factories and biotechnology are all part of the China supply chain. The United States wants to use India to spread risks, but Modi plays well and doesn't listen to everyone.
Trump came to power in 2025 and things were even more animated. he added tariffs to buy Russian oil for India, the tax rate is up to 50%, the US media said this is a big risk, India may go straight to China's arms.
Indeed, India is not low-headed, although imports from 2 million barrels to 1.4 million barrels, but the relationship with Russia is iron. Trump is also publicly chanted Modi, saying India is Russians, lost the American face. Modi responded calmly, saying US-India relations are positive forward.
China's trade with India is stable, India exports more than $70 billion in the first half of 2025, India relies on that side of the supply chain.
In the past few years, U.S.-India relations, the surface of the oil, underneath do not twist more. in 2023, Modi visited the United States, Biden gave his face, signed the F414 agreement, technology transfer over 80%. but in 2025 the tariff war, the United States turned the face again.
India is not stupid and knows that love has a price code, but Modi can always talk about good conditions. Like MQ-9B approved, it is because China drone threat, the United States needs India intelligence network.
Logically, U.S. concessions are realism and strategic interests override everything else. When India buys Russian oil, the United States punishes China as well, but it takes a heavy blow to China because of its large economy, so it treats India lightly and leaves a way out. To be down-to-earth, the United States can make a good calculation, but Modi is even better at calculating, using the leverage of China to leverage U.S. resources. In August 2025, Modi visited China to talk about borders and trade, stabilize China, and at the same time talked to Putin about maintaining military trade.
The deep logic of China-India interaction, India does not rely on unilateral bets
China deserves to be the anchor point in US-India relations. Modi's diplomacy can't get around the Sino-Indian border and trade. After the Galwan conflict in 2020, India, Latin America, Japan and Australia contained China, but did not break the economic line. In 2024, the two sides will negotiate a patrol agreement, border troops will withdraw, and trade will continue to rise.
This shows that India's strategic autonomy, not wanting to be bound to the United States. China's policy to India, the history of the history always put the major diplomatic position in the forefront, and China's interaction with the U.S.-Russian relations dominated. But after the Trump tariffs in 2025, China actively stretched out the olive branch, Xi told Modi, don't let the border define relations, the two countries are partners and not rivals. Modi responded positively, Tianjin met to discuss broad scope issues, from trade to regional stability.
China needs the Indian market, and India needs China investment and technology. In the first half of 2025, China-India trade exceeded 130 billion yuan, and India's exports to China increased by 20%. Semiconductor and electric vehicle parts are all supplied by China. The United States wanted to China and asked India to build factories, but India did not take the bait. Although the Tata Micron factory has been built, China is still the largest trading partner.
The US media pointed out that Trump tariffs pushed India close to China, the BRICS cooperation strengthened, India suggested more relying on emerging groups. Russia's mediation role is also large, Putin is in China between India and India, military and trade energy is fully preserved. India is not relying on unilateral, smart in borrowing China to balance American pressure.
The future tug-of-war between the United States and India, how will the Chinese factor disrupt the situation
Looking forward to the end of 2025, the US-India relationship has to continue. how will Chinese factors interfere? Trump tariffs are not relaxed, India imports Russian oil adjustments, but will not stop.
In February 2025, the US-India Quantum Initiative was launched, joint labs were built and defense sales expanded.COMCASA agreement upgraded, communication platform testing passed.But trade friction was big, H-1B visas and tariffs became a pain point.
India responded by promoting energy and technological cooperation with China and Russia. In September, Modi visited Ukraine in Kiev, exchanged intelligence with Zelensky, and again went to Moscow to meet Putin, military trade confirmed.
China disrupts the situation in supply chains and regional security. India has not completely decoupled from China. Although semiconductors have a joint venture with the United States, China is still upstream. In the autumn of 2025, the Delhi branch of the Quantum Laboratory will open, but China-India talks about 5G cooperation continue. US media said that the United States is tolerant of India because China has taken too many actions in India.
In the future, India will be more flexible, the BRICS and SCO will be in parallel, the four-party dialogue will not be upgraded. Modi has ruled for 11 years, this path goes through, India's global position rises. Logically, China's variable makes it impossible for the United States to turn its face and India to raise resources.