A recent U.S. defense strategy report emerged, the outside world immediately smelled an unusual smell. A long-time high-profile topic - "China threat", suddenly in the official U.S. documents, even the usual keyword "Taiwan Sea" no longer monopolizes the C-point.
Not only that, the U.S. Department of Defense has changed its name to the "war department", a set of preparations for "activity", but also stepped on the brake in the expression of China. this cold and hot operation, how can it not turn: is a strategic turn, or tactical retreat? is a temporary escape, or the momentum to fight again?
The Trump administration's "cold treatment" this time actually hides a series of practical pressures and deep changes.
The focus of U.S. strategy is shifting back
With a new round of U.S. defense strategy adjustments, the most noticeable change is not the volume of the scream, but the direction of the scream.In the past few years, whether a White House spokesman or a military general, the "Chinese Threat Theory" has almost become their standard.
But in the recent U.S. National Defense Strategy Summary, the frequency of the term "China" has declined significantly, and even the mention of Taiwan Sea has become contained, reducing from the past "core challenge" to "one of the risks".
In contrast, Latin America and Central America, which are geographically closer to the United States, are suddenly the focus of attention.
This is not a coincidence.The U.S. Department of Defense (precisely the current “war department”) has explicitly suggested in the report that interventions in the Western Hemisphere should be strengthened, including strengthening border security, fighting drug smuggling, and tackling illegal immigration.
This means that the posture of the United States in global strategy is changing from "global deterrence" to "local consolidation". American think tanks such as CSIS and RAND Corporation also pointed out that this is a typical signal of "strategic contraction". In the past, the ambition to launch multi-line competition around the world at the same time seems somewhat unable to do in the face of reality.
You know, fighting is not about shouting slogans. Resources, troops and domestic support are indispensable. Nowadays, the United States is facing the need of resource restructuring, and the priorities naturally need to be reordered. China, as an opponent who has no longer been "obedient", is obviously not suitable to continue to confront each other head-on in the short term.
Multiple warnings of strong enemies, civil strife and the failure of old tricks
The Trump administration's strategy for warming up this time was not out of goodwill, nor did it suddenly start, but was sharply pushed by reality.
The first is from China's "screen shock".2025 China's "93 parade", various advanced weapons have been shown.BBC, CNN and Western mainstream media must also admit that China's military hard power has reached a point that one cannot ignore.
For the United States, this is not a general "military display", but a direct challenge to its military projection capabilities in East Asia. Before you want to do something, weigh the price first. Americans actually know it very well.
The second is the "back-to-back effect" of the Chinese pressure.Remembering the Trump administration's trade war and science and technology war against China over the years, the outcome is not as expected.The farmers of the US agricultural states are upset, soybeans exports have been cut back; U.S. enterprises have caused a surge, and the supply chain is chaotic.
The report of the IMF and the World Bank showed that the United States itself was not slightly hurt in this economic confrontation.The pressure level spread to the country, protests, lawsuits, support rates, all became a real issue that the government had to face.
Finally, there is a "mountain of votes" weighing on Trump. The mid-term elections are approaching, and internal conflicts in the United States are unprecedentedly fierce. Inflation, immigration, public security, and racial issues have taken turns, and people's emotions have become very fragile.
In this context, government resources must prioritize “stopping blood” rather than continuing to “expand the front”. for Trump, “cold treatment of China” is not to give up confrontation, but to temporarily shut down, first to stabilize the domestic basic disk.
Washington's internal strife crisis
However, don't think that the United States this step back, it means wanting to "reconcil". The strategy report although the description of China is less, but "Taiwan Sea" is still named. This shows that the United States still holds this card in the hand, just hit not so hard before. The question is, this "Taiwan Card" is really a lottery?
China's position on the Taiwan issue has not changed. The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have stated on many occasions that "the Taiwan issue is an internal affair of China that brooks no foreign interference." This is not diplomatic rhetoric, but the bottom line.
Today, the normalized military exercises of the Liberation Army in the Taiwan Sea and the continuous increase of the precise strike capabilities of the "Taiwan independence" forces have made it clear to the US that this is not a game that can be arbitrarily controlled.
The more the Taiwan Strait issue is stirred up by external forces, the pace of cross-strait reunification may accelerate. If the United States plays this card wrong, it is likely to shoot itself in the foot.
What's even more difficult is that the United States is increasingly divided on its China policy. Media such as Foreign Policy and Politician revealed that some Republican hawkish lawmakers were very dissatisfied with the Trump administration's "downgrade of anti-China" and considered it a sign of "weakness".
They insist on continuing to comprehensively curb China in military, economic, foreign affairs, etc. This voice is rare in Congress, and may even form an elbow in the future.
In other words, the United States has not formed a long-term consensus on its China strategy. On the one hand, pragmatism wants to delay their efforts, and on the other hand, hawks want to continue confrontation. This kind of internal friction makes the U.S. policy towards China more like walking a tightrope. Any carelessness is a strategic misjudgment.
conclusion
The Trump administration's cooling of China strategy this time is a "tactical cooling" driven by reality, not a strategic abandonment. Faced with a tougher China, a more complicated international situation and a more fragile domestic situation, the United States has chosen to "cultivate internal strength first" instead of continuing to "release external pressure".
But this does not mean that China-U.S. relations will thus warm up. Competition continues, only the way and pace is adjusted. The United States through "cold treatment" to fight for time and space, trying to save power, waiting for the next time to go. while China, is steadily advancing its development pace, with strength to respond to the challenge.
The future China-U.S. relationship is destined to be a long-term game.But the initiative of this game is changing quietly.If the United States continues to address China in the new era with old thinking, it is likely to go further and further in the strategic fog.The turning point in China-U.S. relations is not in who screams louder, but in who can see the direction of the future more clearly.