On September 30th, Putin delivered his annual "Russian Unity Day" speech in front of 140 million Russians across the country. He has always been quiet, but this time he spent 15 minutes stressing many times that he should defend the "independent choice" of all "new Russian regions" and will not give up any inch of land. He also specifically named Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, saying they are already part of Russia.
After this speech, some analysts believe that the "honeymoon period" between them is completely over. In the past few days, western media have frequently broken out Trump's "disappointment" with Putin, even calling it a complete "parting ways". Why did Putin choose on this festival, openly and Trump "clear the boundaries"?
To understand all this, we have to start on August 15th. That day, in Alaska, representatives of Trump and Putin met secretly. A closed-door meeting, known as the "Trp Conference", was originally regarded as a turning point in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump was full of thoughts at that time that Putin would cooperate with his arrangements, promise a ceasefire before the end of the year, and even start contact and negotiations with Zelensky.
Putin not only has no interest in seeing Zelensky, but also proposes a series of harsh conditions, such as the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass and the recognition that Crimea is permanently part of Russia.
After the incident, Trump was thrilled and even said on social platforms: Putin completely disappointed me.In September, Trump's attitude changed significantly.He no longer mentioned "peace mediation", but instead began to openly stand on the side of Ukraine.
Speaking after meeting with Zelensky, he said that if Ukraine has time and patience, coupled with financial support from Europe and NATO, "it can fully recover all territories."
This is the opposite of his position in the past.To know, Trump has always thought that Ukraine could not win, and even advocated “reduction of peace”.He has said that if Ukraine really wants peace, it is right to worry about Crimea, and a ceasefire is urgent.
Now Trump has changed like a person.U.S. Vice President Wences openly stated that he was seriously considering providing Ukraine with long-range “Tax” cruise missiles with a maximum range of more than 2,000 kilometers, which could completely hit Moscow and St. Petersburg.
That's why he deliberately sent the signal of "fighting to the end" in his speech on September 30th.In fact, Putin is not without caution, he knows clearly that Trump has really changed this time. In his speech, he did not directly name Trump, but inside and outside his words, he made it very clear: Russia will no longer have illusions about anyone.
On July 28, when Trump visited Scotland, he publicly said he was "very disappointed" with Putin. This was his first time to express negative emotions in public. Before that, Putin actually tried to keep in touch with Trump through secret calls, sending special envoys, etc., leaving a way for nuclear arms control negotiations.
But Trump’s attitude has long been tough.On September 22, Putin convened a federal security conference again and proposed new conditions on the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty: he hoped that the United States would "comply with it equally", otherwise Russia would not unilaterally continue to fulfill its commitments. Although these words sound like a constructive proposal, they are actually an "ultimatum".
The treaty will expire on February 5, 2026, and Putin is willing to extend it for one year, but only on the condition that the U.S. side cooperates.This treaty is of great significance to the United States and Russia. It not only limits the number of nuclear warheads, but also one of the few "trust mechanisms" between the two countries. Now Putin's initiative to offer conditions is tantamount to telling the United States: If you don't cooperate, then we will completely tear our faces apart.
The White House's response is also quite cautious. Press Secretary Levitt said that this proposal sounds constructive and President Trump will handle it personally. These words neither refused nor accepted, leaving enough room for myself. Putin's calculation is clear: not to anger Trump, but also not to compromise, let Russia maintain a tough stance and prepare for a protracted war.
Many analysts believe that Putin is already preparing for a strategic pattern after 2026. He knows that in the next two years the situation will not be easy, and the United States will not make easy concessions.
This battle is not only a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a confrontation between Russia and the entire Western world.On Trump's side, although he claims to support Ukraine, his real goal is to use the Ukraine card to force Russia to make concessions, thereby gaining political capital for himself.
He knew that if he could push the end of the war, then his domestic support would boost, and it would also benefit the political layout in 2028. So we saw that when he had fantasies about Putin, he would implicitly suspend intelligence sharing and even let Russia break through the battlefield in Kursk.
From Putin to Trump, the two are in the next big game.On the one hand, Russia is trying to consolidate the domestic people's mind with festival speeches, showing its determination to "do not give up"; on the other hand, the United States is trying to use military aid and public opinion to push Russian concessions and win geographical advantage for itself.
This game is far from over. At present, the negotiations between the United States and Russia are deadlocked, and it is difficult to thaw in the short term. European countries also have to continue to pay for Ukraine, while arms dealers are making a lot of money in this war.
Trump has said to end the war, but has actually complicated the conflict.He now supports long-range missiles into Ukraine, and once they really land, the war may burn to the heart of Russia, when the situation will be more difficult to control.
Putin, of course, is not unprepared.He has already begun the layout of lasting wars at home and warned the people that the next two years will be a critical period.From unification day speeches to nuclear treaty negotiations, from action on the battlefield to diplomatic signals, Russia is fully responding to a "no longer friendly" America.
The split between Putin and Trump is not just a personal complaint of the two leaders, but a sign that US-Russian relations are entering a new phase.Within a short period of two months, From the Alaska conference to Russia’s national speeches, to nuclear treaty proposals and missile aid discussions, the layers of events overlap, and the geological logic behind it becomes increasingly clear.
The world is at a crossroads of division and confrontation, and behind this “split of separation” is hidden a major variable in the international pattern of the coming years.Putin’s speech is not just a festive speech, but a comprehensive response to the current international situation.
His strategic differences with Trump are becoming increasingly evident, and US-Russian relations are entering a new complex phase.Each decision in the future can change the direction of the global pattern.
Source of information:
Russian Foreign Minister: No intention to attack any EU or NATO country
[2] Russian Presidential Press Secretary: Putin is willing to meet with Trump in Moscow Beiwan Online