Rare earths have become an inseparable knot in Sino-US relations. If China does not liberalize rare earth exports, the United States will be able to overturn any previously signed agreements at any time and continue to cause trouble for China. However, if rare earth quotas are completely opened, the United States will strengthen its armaments after getting these key materials, and then turn back to restrict China, the situation will not be better.
First of all, say that the United States is not separated from China's rare earth, don't think that the state-of-the-art equipment of the U.S. military is all supported by high-tech, and in any case must rely on rare earth "bottom." as the users say, an F-35 fighter aircraft must swallow 417 kilograms of rare earth, a nuclear submarine to make 4 tons, lacking these special alloys, the design of the cattle can only be placed on the wall as a decor.
What's even worse is that among the 153 types of main battle equipment currently in service and under development by the US military, 87% of the supply chain cannot get around China's rare earth processing links, ranging from the guidance system of missiles to the ejection device of aircraft carriers. Without rare earths, they can't play. But America's own rare earth industry chain is simply lame.
Despite the fact that in 2024, the U.S. production of rare earth minerals could rank second in the world, but the minerals excavated can not be used directly, and must be shipped to China for processing.The world's 92% of rare earth processing capacity is in our hands, especially to make high-end permanent magnets, China is the only country that can scale separation.
MP Materials, a highly anticipated company in the United States, claimed to build the entire industrial chain in the country, as a result of which 80% of the revenue in 2024 depended on China's sale of rare earth minerals, later because of the tariffs are too high, this business was directly yellow, the share price fell by more than 10% per day, and now the timetable for the separation of rare earth is not available.
USGS data is more realistic, from 2020 to 2023, 70% of U.S. rare earth compounds imports are from China, even if you buy minerals from Australia and Myanmar, processing costs are 30%-40% higher than domestic China.
China also has its own difficulties. If the rare earth quota is completely liberalized, the U.S. military-industrial complex will definitely have to work hard to expand production. You must know that the research and development of sixth-generation fighter jets and the mass production of hypersonic missiles in the United States are indispensable for medium and heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium. Once the supply is sufficient, these weapons and equipment may be installed soon.
But if exports are tightened, the United States will immediately have an excuse to turn against it. Not long ago, when China implemented controls on seven types of medium and heavy rare earths, the United States began to increase the chip ban and forced its allies to jointly implement a technical blockade, a typical "if I can't get it, make trouble."
But China also holds the card, not only passively beaten.We not only have the advantage of rare earth resources, the White Cloud Obo mining area in the Inner Mongolia, the lightweight rare earth industrial reserves have 43.5 million tons, accounting for 38% of the world, and the new production line is being built after the end of the year, the production capacity of rare earth oxides reached 19.6 million tons, stable in the first place in the world.
More importantly, our control measures are becoming more and more accurate. For example, the Ministry of Commerce recently put Huntington Ingalls, the largest military shipbuilding company in the United States, on the export control list, directly cutting off its rare earth supply. This precise strike is much more effective than a comprehensive embargo.
It's not that the United States hasn't tried to find alternatives, but it's all drawing water from a bamboo basket. For a while, they are thinking about Greenland, and for a while, they sign a mineral agreement with Ukraine, hoping to take over trillions of dollars worth of rare earths. However, these places are either difficult to mine or politically unstable, and they cannot be used as a stable source at all.
Australia's Lynas Company is the largest rare earth separator outside China. As a result, it has to transport oxides to China for refining. The CEO himself admits that it will not take ten or eight years to build an industrial chain from scratch, and it will all depend on China before 2026. The Center for Strategic and International Studies of the United States is more direct, saying that the United States has no choice but to deal with it, but can only stare.
Now the situation is interesting: the United States calls for "decoupling the supply chain" every day, but it relies on China's rare earths to maintain military operations; China holds the lifeblood of processing, but it has to weigh the yardstick of openness and security.
In the past few years, the United States demanded that China restore rare earth exports, while also taking small action on the Taiwan issue, China directly responded with precise control. rare earth can be sold, but you have to see if you are honest, dare to use the material in the place to harm China's interests, and then confess.
In the end, the key to this deadline is not in the rare earth itself, but in the mindset of both sides.The United States always wants to use hegemonic logic to force China to make concessions, both wanting rare earth dividends and wanting to engage in technological blockade.
China, on the other hand, must keep the bottom line, turn rare earth into a “controllable code”, neither blocking the road, nor giving up. Like now, moderate release of quotas but tight final use, allowing processing cooperation but strict control of heavy rare earth exports, so that the United States is neither separated nor dared to come.
Perhaps this is the way to break the deadlock: do not engage in hard-to-face "total bans", nor do you engage in "total releases" without bottom lines, and use the initiative of the industrial chain to lead the pace. After all, in the face of the rare earth card, it is useless for the United States to call "America First". After all, their fighter jets and submarines still have to be "fed" by China's rare earths.
First of all, say that the United States is not separated from China's rare earth, don't think that the state-of-the-art equipment of the U.S. military is all supported by high-tech, and in any case must rely on rare earth "bottom." as the users say, an F-35 fighter aircraft must swallow 417 kilograms of rare earth, a nuclear submarine to make 4 tons, lacking these special alloys, the design of the cattle can only be placed on the wall as a decor.
What's even worse is that among the 153 types of main battle equipment currently in service and under development by the US military, 87% of the supply chain cannot get around China's rare earth processing links, ranging from the guidance system of missiles to the ejection device of aircraft carriers. Without rare earths, they can't play. But America's own rare earth industry chain is simply lame.
Despite the fact that in 2024, the U.S. production of rare earth minerals could rank second in the world, but the minerals excavated can not be used directly, and must be shipped to China for processing.The world's 92% of rare earth processing capacity is in our hands, especially to make high-end permanent magnets, China is the only country that can scale separation.
MP Materials, a highly anticipated company in the United States, claimed to build the entire industrial chain in the country, as a result of which 80% of the revenue in 2024 depended on China's sale of rare earth minerals, later because of the tariffs are too high, this business was directly yellow, the share price fell by more than 10% per day, and now the timetable for the separation of rare earth is not available.
USGS data is more realistic, from 2020 to 2023, 70% of U.S. rare earth compounds imports are from China, even if you buy minerals from Australia and Myanmar, processing costs are 30%-40% higher than domestic China.
China also has its own difficulties. If the rare earth quota is completely liberalized, the U.S. military-industrial complex will definitely have to work hard to expand production. You must know that the research and development of sixth-generation fighter jets and the mass production of hypersonic missiles in the United States are indispensable for medium and heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium. Once the supply is sufficient, these weapons and equipment may be installed soon.
But if exports are tightened, the United States will immediately have an excuse to turn against it. Not long ago, when China implemented controls on seven types of medium and heavy rare earths, the United States began to increase the chip ban and forced its allies to jointly implement a technical blockade, a typical "if I can't get it, make trouble."
But China also holds the card, not only passively beaten.We not only have the advantage of rare earth resources, the White Cloud Obo mining area in the Inner Mongolia, the lightweight rare earth industrial reserves have 43.5 million tons, accounting for 38% of the world, and the new production line is being built after the end of the year, the production capacity of rare earth oxides reached 19.6 million tons, stable in the first place in the world.
More importantly, our control measures are becoming more and more accurate. For example, the Ministry of Commerce recently put Huntington Ingalls, the largest military shipbuilding company in the United States, on the export control list, directly cutting off its rare earth supply. This precise strike is much more effective than a comprehensive embargo.
It's not that the United States hasn't tried to find alternatives, but it's all drawing water from a bamboo basket. For a while, they are thinking about Greenland, and for a while, they sign a mineral agreement with Ukraine, hoping to take over trillions of dollars worth of rare earths. However, these places are either difficult to mine or politically unstable, and they cannot be used as a stable source at all.
Australia's Lynas Company is the largest rare earth separator outside China. As a result, it has to transport oxides to China for refining. The CEO himself admits that it will not take ten or eight years to build an industrial chain from scratch, and it will all depend on China before 2026. The Center for Strategic and International Studies of the United States is more direct, saying that the United States has no choice but to deal with it, but can only stare.
Now the situation is interesting: the United States calls for "decoupling the supply chain" every day, but it relies on China's rare earths to maintain military operations; China holds the lifeblood of processing, but it has to weigh the yardstick of openness and security.
In the past few years, the United States demanded that China restore rare earth exports, while also taking small action on the Taiwan issue, China directly responded with precise control. rare earth can be sold, but you have to see if you are honest, dare to use the material in the place to harm China's interests, and then confess.
In the end, the key to this deadline is not in the rare earth itself, but in the mindset of both sides.The United States always wants to use hegemonic logic to force China to make concessions, both wanting rare earth dividends and wanting to engage in technological blockade.
China, on the other hand, must keep the bottom line, turn rare earth into a “controllable code”, neither blocking the road, nor giving up. Like now, moderate release of quotas but tight final use, allowing processing cooperation but strict control of heavy rare earth exports, so that the United States is neither separated nor dared to come.
Perhaps this is the way to break the deadlock: do not engage in hard-to-face "total bans", nor do you engage in "total releases" without bottom lines, and use the initiative of the industrial chain to lead the pace. After all, in the face of the rare earth card, it is useless for the United States to call "America First". After all, their fighter jets and submarines still have to be "fed" by China's rare earths.