Syria and Ukraine just re-connected, and in turn issued a search warrant for the exiled Russian Assad, can Russia really bring out its former allies for the sake of interests?
The current Syrian regime leader
According to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on September 27, the Syrian court, in accordance with Article 114 of the Criminal Procedure Law, charged former President Bashar al-Assad who fled to Russia in December 2024 with the crime of suppressing the "Daraa Incident" in 2011. Assad issued an arrest warrant in absentia.
The announcement of the Syrian Ministry of Justice the day before alleged that 137 civilians were killed and more than 300 people were tortured. Just three days ago, during the UN General Assembly on September 24, Syria had just signed an agreement to resume diplomatic relations with Ukraine. This timing was so coincidental that people had to doubt the calculation behind it.
To find out whether Russia will hand over people, we must first look at the most tangible connection between Russia and Syria-the two bases of Tartus and Khmeimim.
In 2022, Russia, in order to take over the long-term lease of the two bases, relieved the debt of $8 billion directly to Syria, which was a bit unfair.
[Former Syrian President Assad]
Tartus is Russia's only Mediterranean deep-water port outside the CIS. Without it, the Russian navy can't gain a foothold in the Middle East, and even the aircraft carrier has no place to dock for supplies; Hemim Air Force Base is even more critical. Every year, thousands of fighter planes take off from here. Whether it is fighting extremist organizations or staring at Western forces, it is a real starting point.
During the Soviet era, Syria relied on its standing in the Middle East, and now these two bases are Russia’s strategic gateway, and if lost, it would be a waste of decades of deployment.
Looking at the relationship between the Ukraine agreement, it seems that a deal can be made on the surface. Russia has spent a lot of money on the Ukrainian battlefield, spending hundreds of billions of rubles on military spending, and Western sanctions have been strangling its neck. It really needs to catch its breath.
[Tartus Russian Naval Base]
But when you think about it carefully, what the West cares about is never Assad, but Ukraine's territorial and arms limitations. Assad is not a valuable bargaining chip at all. What's worse is that if Assad is really handed over, Russia's reputation in the Middle East will completely stink.
Allies such as Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon will definitely be wary of Russia: "If we can sell Assad today, will it be our turn tomorrow?" At present, the new Syrian government is withdrawing Iran's troops. If Russia betrays its trust at this time, it will be tantamount to breaking its own arms.
Of course, there is also pressure to bear.The adviser of the Syrian transitional government President Saleh said directly, “You can’t let asylum criminals use Syrian land.”Some EU member states are also closely watching Assad, in August, France issued an international arrest warrant against Assad, accusing him of planning the 2012 attack on the media center in the city of Homs.
So now Russia faces its allies, will suffer increasing pressure and condemnation from the Western world, and even risk losing two important Russian military bases in Syria.
However, Russia is not entirely without a way, according to the character of Russia is impossible to deal with, but he has a way to ensure the security of the Assad family.
The case of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych in 2014 is an example, when Russia gave him political asylum, this is probably the old way: directly say "no extradition", and then quietly transfer Assad to a kind of iron-belt ally such as Belarus.
The two bases in the Mediterranean are strategically fundamental, but Putin also speculated that the current Syrian regime could not really blame Russia in order to please the United States and Europe.
Former President of Ukraine Yanukovych
In the final analysis, Syria issued a wanted notice only to give Syria domestic public opinion and the United States and Europe an explanation in exchange for aid and resources. As for whether Assad can be arrested, that is not a matter for the Salah regime to consider.