China's National Day is celebrated here, and the U.S. government is "shutting down"?
October 1 0.01 in Eastern U.S. time, or 12:01 in Beijing time, The U.S. government officially announced the shutdown.
Just a few hours ago, Walter, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, issued a memo and began to direct the "orderly shutdown" of major U.S. government agencies.
Why does the government shut down as a superpower like the United States? What are the effects of the US government shutdown? Why doesn't Trump care about closing the door? How does this affect China?
Today, let's talk about these topics. It's not easy to code words. Welcome to like, forward, and collect.
Two-party struggle to shut down the US government.
The direct reason for the US government shutdown was “no money” and the fundamental reason was the “internal struggle” between the two parties.
As we all know, the United States is a so-called "separation of powers" government. In order to check and balance the power of the President of the United States, American law stipulates that the government has to submit a 12-item budget expenditure to Congress every year. If Congress passes it, then the government can take the passed budget and get funds from the Ministry of Finance.
So what if Congress fails, then the US government will shut down because of no funding.
Seven years ago, at the end of 2018, Trump also encountered something similar during his first term, when Trump wanted to build a border wall on the U.S.-Mexico border and needed a budget of up to $5.6 billion, which resulted in the budget being dead in Congress, so the U.S. government shut down for 35 days.
So what about the situation this time? It's actually similar to last time.
This time, Trump, that is, the Republican government, submitted a series of budget policies, which were suppressed in the House of Representatives. Therefore, Trump can only submit a "temporary spending bill" in an attempt to avoid the government shutdown.
As Trump controls the House of Representatives of Congress, this temporary spending bill has passed the customs in a thrilling way. Theoretically, if the bill is passed in the Senate, the time for the US government to shut down will be postponed from today to the end of November, so Trump will have time to better revise the budget and try to prevent the US government from shutting down.
But unlike the Senate and the House of Representatives, the law stipulates that the Senate needs to get 60 votes to pass a budget bill, while the Republicans, despite having a majority in the Senate, have only 53 seats, which means Trump has to pull seven Democratic lawmakers to counter.
So, is the Democratic Party willing to compromise? Not willing, of course. Because there is a "core difference" between Democrats and Republicans. Trump believes that the Affordable Care Act of the Obama era is an inefficient policy that wastes finance, so he directly abolished the subsidy of this bill in this budget.
However, Obama is the president of the Democratic Party, which is an important political legacy for the Democratic Party, so the Democratic Party desperately opposes it. Even two days before the government shut down, the Democratic Party still voted against it.
Without resolute resistance from Democrats, Trump's budget is unlikely to pass the Senate vote, so the US government can only be forced to "close the door".
So, the core of this US government shutdown is not a simple issue of funding, but a deep disagreement between the two parties on key policies, both attempting to use the allocation bill as a code to let each other surrender.
US government shutdown, what are the consequences?
Now that the U.S. government has shut down, what is the impact?
First, 750,000 U.S. government employees will be “forced off” because they don’t get paid, and public servants’ jobs will be shut down because of a lack of workforce.
For example, most museums, monuments, national forest parks and other public service facilities in the United States will be closed because there is no personnel to maintain them. Dustbins in the United States will pile up like mountains, courts in the United States will be closed, trials of cases will stagnate, and processing windows of U.S. consulates and immigration offices will pile up like mountains or even close.
In terms of welfare distribution, the distribution of "food stamps" for millions of children and women will be affected, and energy subsidies and housing in many places will be interrupted due to lack of funds.
Not only that, there is a high probability of problems in medical and health public institutions in the United States. Because the U.S. FDA will shut down, the U.S. air flight system will be delayed due to lack of staff, because the government has no money.
According to experience, the last shutdown of the Trump administration caused direct economic losses of more than US $10 billion. Considering factors such as inflation, the possibility of this shutdown of the US government will be even more exaggerated. According to the analysis, the shutdown of the US government will bring an economic loss of 7 billion dollars per week.
What is the impact on China?
What impact will the U.S. government shutdown have on China? In fact, it's very interesting. National Day in China is off because of the holiday, and in the United States it is off because of the government shutdown. Although they are all off, the U.S. government shutdown also gave us a "fun" on National Day.
In the final analysis, the shutdown of the US government damages the influence of the US government. For example, in terms of geodiplomacy, the shutdown of some functional departments of the U.S. government may delay the specific implementation of its "Indo-Pacific Strategy" (such as military exercises and diplomatic initiatives), providing China with a short window for diplomatic activities in the Asia-Pacific region.
In terms of economy and trade, the shutdown of the U.S. government in the short term will weaken U.S. consumer demand, affect China's exports to the U.S., and from the financial market perspective will trigger a global retreat, after all, the U.S. financial market is still the world's most important market.
Of course, in the technology industry, due to the shutdown of the U.S. Department of Commerce and other agencies, U.S. sanctions against China will come to an end, and the pressure on China companies will be reduced. In particular, the technical review of China will also be suspended and slowed down.
In general, although the "shutdown" of the U.S. government is a black swan, it is more biased towards a short-term negative. It is generally good news for China.
Nevertheless, we can also grasp the underlying logic of the U.S. government from here.We found that the U.S. government doesn't seem to be so united, and the two-party dispute between Democrats and Republicans has come to the point where you die and live.
In the long run, the division in the United States will become more severe. This is not good news for Americans. After all, no one wants their government to be a "straw team" that will close government agencies.
But for China, the bad news from the United States is good news for China.
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