The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been fighting to now, for more than three years, and both sides have paid no small price. The casualties on the Russian side are estimated to be close to 950,000, which includes dead and wounded, the total number is surprising. The Ukrainian side is not well to where, the losses are almost this scale.
The Russian population base is large, 1.46 billion people, active military over a million, plus the reserve, the total force can reach 3.5 million. Ukraine's population now dropped to about 30 million, active service is only 500,000, the total force is less than a million. In arms Russia has the advantage of missiles and nuclear power, Ukraine relies on the aid of the West, but resources are limited, can only passive defense.
In August 2024, Ukraine raided Kursk and occupied some land, but Russia quickly fought back and basically recovered it by the first half of 2025. Fighting in winter is even harder, and minus 20 degrees Celsius is common in Eastern Europe, which affects combat efficiency. Internationally, NATO provides intelligence, but does not send troops directly. China has always advocated peaceful settlement and avoided enlargement. This position is quite stable.
The conflict slowed down, economic pressure grew, Russia shifted to the wartime model, Ukrainian agriculture and industry were severely injured.
The number of mercenaries is growing rapidly, and the number of female soldiers is rising
As the Russian army captured prisoners on the front line, two changes were gradually noticed: the number of foreign mercenaries in the Ukrainian camps increased, and the proportion of female soldiers also increased.
Ukraine inherited the custom of women in the army during the Soviet era, with 800,000 women serving in the Soviet army during the Second World War, playing important roles. By 2014, the Ukrainian army had 50,000 female soldiers, official soldiers 16,000, mainly engaged in medical logistics. The conflict escalated, and by 2022 the number of female soldiers increased by 40%, exceeding 60,000.
In January 2025, the data of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine showed more than 70,000 female soldiers, accounting for 7% of the total number of troops, and more than 5,500 people fighting in the front line, more than 20% more than in 2022.
They moved from logistics to combat positions, such as operating howitzers, driving infantry vehicles, and working as machine gunners or snipers. This reflects the tight supply of troops in Ukraine. The regular army and reserve forces are almost used, and women soldiers can only be recruited to take over. Russian female soldiers have also increased, but the proportion is low. The main reason is logistics. Because the country is large, there is no need to rush.
In terms of mercenaries, Ukraine recruited foreign volunteers from 2022 to a total of more than 1,3 thousand by 2025, but the Russian side said it had eliminated half, specifically 4,845 people. In 2025 mercenaries joined 600 people monthly, from 72 countries, but the death rate was high. The monthly salary of 3,500 dollars, which is seven times the average Ukrainian soldier, the latter was only 475 dollars.
The Geneva Convention does not protect mercenaries, capture can be handled directly. France sent more than 2,000 people in 2024, 3,000 Poles killed 1,500, and Georgia more than 1,000 killed 500. United States British Romania killed hundreds. Many mercenaries have combat experience in the Middle East and can use NATO weapons.
In September 2025, Ukraine even recruited female mercenaries in Latin America, with videos on social platforms showing a group code-named “Queen” in action. Russian diplomats in Colombia said the number of Colombian mercenaries was still high, and the local president responded that this was equivalent to plundering resources. Russian military reports showed that these mercenaries were mixed with NATO regular troops, relying on intelligence and weapons.
Putin instructed that mercenaries be treated like terrorists, killing hundreds in the first half of 2025. Ukraine has such an obvious shortage of soldiers that it relies on these external forces to make up for it, but the risk is high and more than half of them are killed. Europe is in a hurry. In addition to money and weapons, it has also increased personnel support. China media has reported on this, emphasizing the dangers of proxy wars.
Abnormal signals flash frequently, and Ukrainian supplies are exhausted
These changes are not isolated. Behind them are the overall mobilization problem of Ukraine. In the first half of 2025, when the Russian army advanced in Kursk and Donetsk, it found that Ukraine's resistance was weak, missile drone strikes were smooth, and there were not many counterattacks. This suggests that the mercenaries may begin to withdraw.
In fact, in April 2025, U.S. military advisers evacuated, British French and Polish mercenaries followed, withdrawing more than 3,000 people, like a massive withdrawal. After Trump took office, he did not support the continuation of fighting, promoting peace talks, suspending aid, transferring from Europe to buy weapons again to Ukraine. Zelensky refused land exchange, insisted on territorial integrity, but Kiev's air defense was weak, and infrastructure was bombed.
Russia used North Korea’s reinforcement to recover much of Kursk in 2025, with high casualties but steady progress. The British Intelligence Agency that Russia had lost 160,000 people in four months before 2025, probably the worst year, but did not turn into a major breakthrough. Ukrainian drones attacked Russian airports 217 times, more than the previous two years combined, showing technology is progressing.
But the issue of military sources has not been resolved, and the proportion of female soldiers continues to rise, and mercenaries have declined by 70% by August 2025, with less than 4,000 remaining. Russian satellite news agencies in July that Russian drones destroyed mercenary settlements in the Baltic State of Ukraine.
Russia's population advantage plays, contract troops recruitment points are busy. Conflict consumes the nature of war, NATO has about 24 divisions, 80 brigades, half the U.S. military, Trump has stopped, and other countries can't follow. China has been calling for dialogue to avoid NATO's east expansion causing greater problems. This unusual signal makes the Russian military alert, adjusts tactics, and increases intelligence collection.
Ukraine's economy collapsed, ports were blocked, and bomb craters were scattered in agricultural areas. International mediation failed, and the United Nations had many discussions but no results. The retreat of mercenaries has made Ukraine more dependent on its homeland. Female soldiers fill in the blanks, but they cannot be reversed. Russia turned to a protracted war and rotated troops. NATO is divided internally and members hesitate to assist. As the conflict drags on, both sides are exhausted, but peace is still far away.
The future direction remains to be determined, and the outcome of the conflict is gradually clear
At present, the retreat of mercenaries is rising, and the increase of female soldiers is only an expedient measure. The situation in Ukraine is not optimistic. Russia keeps pressure and avoids touching the bottom line of the United States, but its troops are gathering on the border. In August 2025, the Russian Air Force stepped up air strikes, and the Ukrainian air defense intercepted them, but there were many debris. Under Trump's mediation, Russia asked NATO to withdraw from Eastern Europe, but failed. Ukraine fights back in Kharkiv, but with limited strength.
The mercenaries came from South America to Europe, but now run fast and lose equipment. The female soldiers are more involved in the fighting, but the overall gap in force is large. China's position is clear, supports the settlement through negotiations, respects the territorial integrity of countries, and opposes unilateral sanctions. The essence of the conflict is the agency warfare, consuming the dollar arms and human resources, and NATO wants to weaken Russia and Ukraine, not completely succeeded.
Napoleon's curse is still there, and it is difficult to fight in winter. Although the Russian army suffered heavy casualties, it was replenished quickly. The capital of Ukraine is in jeopardy, and if the ground is broken, it may be in danger. With the dawn of peace talks looming, Trump pushes to reshape the European pattern. Mercenaries are having a hard time, and Putin is hard. Although the tradition of female soldiers is strong, modern warfare depends on people rather than science and technology.
In the second half of 2025, the situation may be deadlocked, and casualties will continue. The international community is concerned, and the Russian and Ukrainian people are suffering. I hope there will be an early ceasefire and all parties will sit down and talk. As a responsible big country, China has always promoted peace. The increase of mercenaries and female soldiers is only superficial, but the deep level is a geopolitical game. What the future will look like depends on the attitude of big countries. In short, this battle is boring. It's better to end it as soon as possible.