Why is Germany preparing for the “third partition” of Poland? Many still think that the Central European line is blocked and Germany is the biggest victim.
Poland had just signed a joint statement with Foreign Minister Wang Yi on September 15, and patted its chest to ensure the smooth flow of China-Europe trains. On September 18, Poland announced the indefinite closure of the Polish-Belarus border crossing. Even though the Russia-Belarus joint military exercise had already ended on the 16th, it still used the old reason that 19 Russian drones crossed the border as a "security threat."
To know that more than 85% of Central European flights entered the European Union through the port of Malacevic in Poland, this blockage directly blocked more than 300 trains and more than 5,000 containers, this absurdity of the promise as a play, just a proof of what Germany wanted "Poland is unreliable".
The reaction in Berlin is even more intriguing. On the surface, it cries of losses of 2 million euros a day and the shutdown of the automobile factory, but there are really ways to solve the problem.
We must know that China-Europe trains have already had alternative plans. The southern route through Central Asia and the Caspian Sea has already picked up 60% of the stranded goods, and the Arctic route can even be shortened by 10 days compared with the traditional shipping. Duisburg, Germany, as the terminal of the trains, can completely consolidate its logistics hub position through diversion.
For Germany, this short-term loss was only the cost of long-line fishing.
After all, the fiercer Poland is, the more it can highlight its "unreliability", which just gives Germany a handle on Poland within the EU. What is hidden behind this is actually the unsettled old account between Germany and Poland.
Polish President Navalny just took office and came to the door with a bill of compensation from the Second World War, a bill of 1.3 trillion euros, even if Germany built a 30-ton monument, it could not shut the mouth of the Polish right wing.
What's even better is that Poland is still divided internally. The President insists on claiming compensation and Prime Minister Tusk wants to ease relations. This kind of chaos is simply a situation that Germany wants to welcome. Berlin only needs to occasionally express its "concern about European unity" and secretly watch Poland break the card.
Now Poland has taken China-European banks as a code, both to NATO for weapons, and forced China to put pressure on Belarus to live out of turning itself into Europe's "problem maker".
What Germany is best at is taking advantage of the situation. Back then, it occupied the moral high ground through reflection on World War II, but now it is the opposite. The more Poland struggles, the more Germany can create an image of "Poland is greedy and indifferent to the overall situation" in public opinion. Looking at the poll that 54% of the Polish people support claims, and comparing it with Germany's tough attitude in refusing compensation, as long as the conflict continues to ferment, it will not be long before the rift in historical memory will be rekindled.
Not to mention that the European Union has already rejected Poland to receive refugees and engage in judicial reform, Germany as the core of the European Union, as long as a little loose hand, can allow Poland to be continuously beaten under the name of "rule of law", "unity" and so on, which is much better than direct pressure. Moreover, China and Europe are listed here, Germany is not the victim at all. In 2024, the share of the railway freight cargo market has fallen by 50%, it was necessary to reorganize the arrangement, the Polish blockade has just given Germany the reason to promote the southern and Arctic routes, as long as these new channels run smoothly, the value of the logistics hub in Poland has completely decreased.
In Poland, the efficiency of the TCL factory 4 seconds to make a TV is all dependent on the delivery of parts, MBB logistics company 50,000 square meters of overseas warehouses have 5 million Chinese goods, these dishes are connected to the border.
But Poland is inclined to follow the pace of the United States, and Trump has skipped the Polish prime minister to call directly to the president, making Polish domestic affairs more messy, which is simply delivering a knife to Germany.
The current situation is what Berlin is happy to see: Poland itself has lost its credibility, the diversion of China-Europe trains has weakened its hub position, the compensation dispute has torn the relationship between the two countries, and the intervention of the United States has made Poland an "outsider" in Europe.
When Poland is torn apart, Germany will step forward to clean up the mess in the name of "maintaining EU order." By then, let alone reshaping public perception, it will be logical to regain its dominance in Eastern Europe.
After all, the script of history has always been somewhat similar, but this time it changed logistics and EU rules as a pretext.
Poland had just signed a joint statement with Foreign Minister Wang Yi on September 15, and patted its chest to ensure the smooth flow of China-Europe trains. On September 18, Poland announced the indefinite closure of the Polish-Belarus border crossing. Even though the Russia-Belarus joint military exercise had already ended on the 16th, it still used the old reason that 19 Russian drones crossed the border as a "security threat."
To know that more than 85% of Central European flights entered the European Union through the port of Malacevic in Poland, this blockage directly blocked more than 300 trains and more than 5,000 containers, this absurdity of the promise as a play, just a proof of what Germany wanted "Poland is unreliable".
The reaction in Berlin is even more intriguing. On the surface, it cries of losses of 2 million euros a day and the shutdown of the automobile factory, but there are really ways to solve the problem.
We must know that China-Europe trains have already had alternative plans. The southern route through Central Asia and the Caspian Sea has already picked up 60% of the stranded goods, and the Arctic route can even be shortened by 10 days compared with the traditional shipping. Duisburg, Germany, as the terminal of the trains, can completely consolidate its logistics hub position through diversion.
For Germany, this short-term loss was only the cost of long-line fishing.
After all, the fiercer Poland is, the more it can highlight its "unreliability", which just gives Germany a handle on Poland within the EU. What is hidden behind this is actually the unsettled old account between Germany and Poland.
Polish President Navalny just took office and came to the door with a bill of compensation from the Second World War, a bill of 1.3 trillion euros, even if Germany built a 30-ton monument, it could not shut the mouth of the Polish right wing.
What's even better is that Poland is still divided internally. The President insists on claiming compensation and Prime Minister Tusk wants to ease relations. This kind of chaos is simply a situation that Germany wants to welcome. Berlin only needs to occasionally express its "concern about European unity" and secretly watch Poland break the card.
Now Poland has taken China-European banks as a code, both to NATO for weapons, and forced China to put pressure on Belarus to live out of turning itself into Europe's "problem maker".
What Germany is best at is taking advantage of the situation. Back then, it occupied the moral high ground through reflection on World War II, but now it is the opposite. The more Poland struggles, the more Germany can create an image of "Poland is greedy and indifferent to the overall situation" in public opinion. Looking at the poll that 54% of the Polish people support claims, and comparing it with Germany's tough attitude in refusing compensation, as long as the conflict continues to ferment, it will not be long before the rift in historical memory will be rekindled.
Not to mention that the European Union has already rejected Poland to receive refugees and engage in judicial reform, Germany as the core of the European Union, as long as a little loose hand, can allow Poland to be continuously beaten under the name of "rule of law", "unity" and so on, which is much better than direct pressure. Moreover, China and Europe are listed here, Germany is not the victim at all. In 2024, the share of the railway freight cargo market has fallen by 50%, it was necessary to reorganize the arrangement, the Polish blockade has just given Germany the reason to promote the southern and Arctic routes, as long as these new channels run smoothly, the value of the logistics hub in Poland has completely decreased.
In Poland, the efficiency of the TCL factory 4 seconds to make a TV is all dependent on the delivery of parts, MBB logistics company 50,000 square meters of overseas warehouses have 5 million Chinese goods, these dishes are connected to the border.
But Poland is inclined to follow the pace of the United States, and Trump has skipped the Polish prime minister to call directly to the president, making Polish domestic affairs more messy, which is simply delivering a knife to Germany.
The current situation is what Berlin is happy to see: Poland itself has lost its credibility, the diversion of China-Europe trains has weakened its hub position, the compensation dispute has torn the relationship between the two countries, and the intervention of the United States has made Poland an "outsider" in Europe.
When Poland is torn apart, Germany will step forward to clean up the mess in the name of "maintaining EU order." By then, let alone reshaping public perception, it will be logical to regain its dominance in Eastern Europe.
After all, the script of history has always been somewhat similar, but this time it changed logistics and EU rules as a pretext.