On October 1, local time, the Senate failed to pass the provisional funding bill proposed by Republicans and Democrats separately on September 30.The U.S. federal government shut down again after seven years.Hundreds of thousands of federal employees face compulsory leave or job cuts, and many federal departments are also shut down.

How did the U.S. government go to this ¡°stop¡±?

Every federal fiscal year in the United States begins on October 1st and ends on September 30th of the following year. To ensure the smooth operation of the new fiscal year, Congress must pass the budget authorization of various departments in advance. This should have been completed one by one through 12 regular appropriation bills, but because party differences are difficult to solve all the year round, Congress often delays it until the last minute. If regular appropriations cannot be agreed on in time, the temporary appropriations bill becomes a "firefighting brigade". The provisional appropriation bill will "renew the life" of the government according to the expenditure level of the previous fiscal year, which can usually last for several weeks or months.

But this year's "help" became a problem. Early in the spring and summer, Congress fell into the rubble of health insurance subsidies, foreign aid, and immigration law enforcement funds, leading to discussions about 12 regular appropriations almost stagnating. By September, Republicans in the House of Representatives hastened to throw a temporary appropriation bill, wanting to keep the funds until November 21, but were rejected by the Democrats because of the clause cutting some medical aid expenditure and accompanying conservative policy demands. Nearly at the same time, Democrats also proposed another version of the temporary appropriation bill in the Senate,ining the "Obama Medicine Reform" subsidy and increasing the spending of social projects, and the result was relentlessly opposed by the Republicans.

As the two plans failed one after another, the time window was constantly compressed. For most of late September, Congress was adjourned again, so the real working days available for negotiation and voting were compressed to the last two or three days of the month.

The U.S. media Federal News Network, which focuses on the administration and policy of the federal government, that despite the government's "stagnation", the two parties' differences on the main issues were far from agreed.

But at this critical moment, the White House is in trouble. On September 25, the White House Office of Management and Budget ordered agencies to prepare for Reduction in Force (RIF), not just the usual unpaid leave for people in non-essential positions. "RIF" is a term in the field of personnel and labor management of the U.S. government. It usually refers to layoffs, streamlining of personnel, and revocation of posts due to funding, establishment, organizational adjustment and other reasons. Therefore, this move is not only a contingency plan, but also seen as putting pressure on Congress. If the stalemate continues,The consequences may not only be short-term shutdowns, but also permanent changes in institutional and employee structures.

Before the US government's shutdown crisis

The struggle between the two parties is still "on the top"

Only a few hours before the US federal government's funds were exhausted, when the US government "closed" "near in front of the eyes", the Democratic and Republican parties still refused to release a compromise signal, and the position became more and more tough.

On September 30, Senate Republican leader John Thun urged Democrats to vote in favour of the Republican Provisional Allowance Bill to be passed and signed into law by U.S. President Trump. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said, ¡°We are standing on the cliff of government shutdowns because Republicans are not serious about keeping the government running.¡± Chuck Schumer said, ¡°The Republicans want to shut down the government and don¡¯t want to negotiate, while forcing Democrats to accept Republican laws.¡±

U.S. President Trump said that day:The government may actually shut down, it was the Democrats who shut down the governmentTrump also said he would do some irreversible things during the government shutdown, such as massive job cuts and cuts in projects.

U.S. federal government funds were exhausted at midnight local time on September 30. Previously, the House of Representatives had narrowly passed a temporary appropriations bill drafted by the Republican Party in an attempt to maintain the federal government's operating funds until late November. However, the Senate then failed to pass the bill, and the two parties were in a deadlock. Democrats criticized the Republican interim funding bill for ignoring health care priorities, while Republicans said the bill would buy time for further negotiations.

The US government is closed.

How much influence

The U.S. federal government¡¯s ¡°shutdown¡± situation due to the two-party political game is so rare that federal agencies have developed a set of operational manuals on how to deal with the ¡°shutdown¡±. According to media reports, at the end of the September 30 Japanese fiscal year, the Trump administration is rapidly rewriting these response plans, and if the government¡¯s ¡°shutdown¡± occurs again, it will be harder to predict than ever before and could cause greater chaos.

CBS reports that the government "stop" will have a series of impacts on government staff, social security, medical insurance, transportation and other aspects of society.

During the government shutdown, about 750,000 federal employees may be "forced to take unpaid vacation" every day, and their total daily compensation cost is about $400 million.

Many museums, national parks and monuments may be closed or shortened.Some windows at the U.S. Department of Consulates and the Immigration Office will slow down or even close, and the processing time for documents such as passports, green cards, visas will be extended.While mandatory expenses such as social security payments will still be issued, related labor services may be stuck.

For low-income families, the blow will come sooner. Food stamps for millions of pregnant women and children will be affected, housing assistance and energy subsidies will also be delayed due to the shortage of funds, the federal government's support for preschool education and school lunches may be forced to be advanced by local governments, and the financial pressure of states and counties will increase sharply.

Transportation, travel, medical care, public health, etc. will all be affected. Not only will staffing shortages lead to delayed flights and frequent queues, but new route approvals, pilot training and licensing will also stop; In addition, the daily statistical update and drug approval speed of CDC and Food and Drug Administration will also slow down, and it will be difficult to obtain telephone customer service, case appeal and other services of government medical insurance and other institutions.

Will cost the United States more broadly economically. Analysts generally believe that the government shutdown may cost the U.S. economy about $7 billion a week, the delayed payment of federal employees' salaries will affect consumer spending, and the market's anxiety about policy uncertainty will aggravate volatility. If the "shutdown" drags on for a long time and is intertwined with issues such as the debt ceiling and fiscal deficit, it may also lead to an increase in the borrowing cost of the US government.

The "closing door" drama is staged every year

This year is dangerous.

The "shutdown" of the government has almost become an annual drama in Washington politics, especially with the intensification of party polarization, it is increasingly difficult for Congress to pass the annual budget, and the threat of shutdown is also staged every year.

¡÷ A list of federal government closures since 1976 compiled by PBS

Since the 1970s, the U.S. federal government has "stopped" twenty times because of the differences between Republican and Democratic two-party policies.

The last and longest "shutdown" occurred during Trump's first presidential term.At the time, about a quarter of federal government agencies were closed for five weeks, with more than 800,000 government employees, and economic losses estimated at more than $10 billion.

During the 2013 Obama Administration of the United States, some conservative Republican lawmakers obstructed the implementation of Obamacare, causing the government to "shut down" for 16 days. Hundreds of thousands of federal government employees have been forced to stop work and stay at home, and public services such as private sector applications for government loans have also been forced to postpone.

During the reign of former President Clinton,The federal government has been suspended twice and about 28,4 thousand government officials have been forced on leave.

During the Bush administration.Some agencies of the U.S. federal government also ceased operating in October 1990. At that time, Republican George W. Bush and congressional Democrats reached an agreement to increase tax rates to reduce the government deficit, but this decision was opposed by some congressional Republicans, so that the budget bill for the new fiscal year failed to be passed.

As political mutual trust has dropped to the bottom, the new Congress has been sharply opposed since the beginning of the year on issues such as health insurance, immigration, foreign aid, and there is hardly any incentive to negotiate regular allocations in advance. The relationship between the White House and Congress leadership is also more cold than in previous years, and several key consultations have been suddenly cancelled, breaking the last-minute communication channels.

The ¡°Big Final¡±:

Short-term shutdown + emergency temporary allocation relief


So far, both parties have raised the bottom line and public opinion positions in public statements.

The Republican Party firmly advocates "clean" temporary appropriations, that is, short-term budgets that do not tie in health care or larger policy terms, emphasizing that this is the most pragmatic solution to keep appropriations running and buy time for negotiations. Republican Senator and Majority Leader Thun has repeatedly said that as long as the Democratic Party "relaxes" medical insurance conditions, there is still a chance to avoid a shutdown.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party insisted that "health protection is not tradeable" and refused to extend or withdraw relevant temporary appropriations without medical insurance subsidies, accusing the Republican Party of using the budget process to "kidnap" low-income groups. In the public opinion battle, the Democratic Party used "family medical security" as its core narrative, warning that millions of families would face insurance outages after the shutdown.

Based on these statements and historical experience, the public opinion believes thatThe next situation is likely to be a short-term shutdown and an emergency temporary removal.Because after public opinion and market pressure rise, the two sides will reach an interim agreement to purely maintain the operation of the government, the Republican Party may make symbolic concessions, while the Democratic Party will accept "opening the door first and negotiating conditions later" after winning relevant commitments.

If the deadlock exceeds two weeks, it may enter a seesaw delay stage, which will inevitably cause economic losses to spread rapidly. Contractor defaults, flight chaos, and scientific research interruptions will all create new political pain points and force the centrist and the White House to push for compromise.

In extreme cases, although the probability is low, long-term shutdown and structural adjustments cannot be ruled out. The White House took the opportunity to promote layoffs and institutional restructuring, but the political and market costs were extremely high.

Comprehensively, the political and economic costs of long-term delays are too high.Making the ¡°temporary transition achieved after a few days of chaos¡± the most likely.The final compromise will revolve around how to place medical insurance subsidies: whether to handle them independently first or write them into the follow-up negotiation agenda, which will depend on the final game between the two sides.

The Red Winged Journalist.