On September 30, 2025, Russia¡¯s ¡°United Day¡± was supposed to be a moment of national celebration, but Putin gave a meaningful speech to the country on this day, which was not just a routine political mobilization.

It¡¯s more like an open ¡°break-up letter¡± written to Trump, and to the entire Western world, he doesn¡¯t have a name, but the sentences are all responding to one question: and America¡¯s ¡°Honeymoon¡± is over.

This speech is not just as simple as declaring sovereignty. It hit the floor responded to the sudden change in the relationship between the two men after the "Special Pool Meeting" in August. The meeting that was originally highly anticipated now looks more like a misunderstanding.

Putin's "iron fist"

Putin's speech began by mentioning: "The residents of Donbas and New Russia have finally realized their dreams for many years." This sentence, translated into human language, is: We will not give up these places again.

He re-packed the outcome of the controversial ¡°referendum¡± in 2022 as the reflection of the will of the people, and re-encapsulated it on the international stage, telling the world that these lands now belong to Russia.

Then he stressed that "Russia is a great independent sovereign country and can withstand any test." This sentence is not meant for domestic ears, but for the United States. The meaning is very direct: You want us to make concessions, that is wishful thinking. I am ready to fight a protracted war. Who is afraid of whom?

In fact, the calculation behind Putin's series of statements is not complicated. On the one hand, he wants to turn war into a "national project" and allow domestic people to tie the sacrifices on the front line with the destiny of the country.

On the other hand, he is also responding to the predictions of the outside world about Russia "unbearable", especially an idea that has been spread inside Western societies: Russia may, because of the economic pressure and the battlefield impasse, at some point actively withdraw, Putin's speech, is to water the fantasy.

More importantly, his attitude towards Trump has changed. In August, Trump proposed a "realistic plan"-Ukraine keeps its core territory and Russia withdraws some controlled areas in exchange for ceasefire negotiations.

But Putin obviously didn't buy it. There was no hint of compromise in his speech. Instead, he told Trump in the most direct way: You want to talk, but I don't want to stop.

Trump's "awakening"

In fact, after the end of the "Trp Conference", Trump once thought that he had found a breakthrough. He publicly stated,"Ukraine should accept reality and it is impossible to regain all its lost territory."

The implication is that he is willing to promote a plan of "taking a step back", and his deputy team is also actively making arrangements for this, trying to win the aura of a "peacemaker" for himself through diplomatic mediation.

But Putin¡¯s response, more cold than he could have imagined, not only refused to meet Zelensky, but also put forward an almost unacceptable negotiation prerequisite ¨C including Ukraine¡¯s recognition of Crimea and Donbass¡¯s ¡°ownership¡±, which made Trump fully aware that Putin had no intention of letting go.

In September, Trump began to change his face, first posting on social media, saying he had ¡°lost patience with Russia¡±; then, after meeting Zelensky, rarely expressed his support for Ukraine¡¯s ¡°recovery of all territories.¡±

This transformation is not an emotional outburst, but a reversal of political reality. He must show toughness at home, especially in front of the MAGA group. He cannot look like he is giving in to Putin.

The more substantial change appears at the level of security assistance. Deputy Vance publicly stated that he is considering providing Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine.

This is not an ordinary upgrade, but a qualitative leap: from ATACMS, which had a range of 300 kilometers in the past, it was suddenly pulled to 2,000 kilometers. As soon as the "Tomahawk" came out, core cities such as Moscow entered the range. This is no longer assistance, but naked strategic deterrence.

Trump's turn is not just as simple as being disappointed with Putin. He is also using this method to regain the dominance of Russia policy. In the past, the "honeymoon period" was based on each other's vague expectations. Now that these expectations have broken down, he must repair his ruling image with a tougher stance.

the risk of escalation

If there is still some "bottom-line consensus" in the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the past three years, it is to avoid affecting Russia's core strategic areas, but once the "Tomahawk" is deployed, this bottom-line will become useless.

During the Biden administration, the use of long-range weapons was extremely cautious. U.S. assistance was basically limited to targets around the battlefield. Even if Ukraine had the ability, it was required to "stop at the point." But now, the attitude of the Trump team is obviously different, almost encouraging Ukraine to burn the war farther and deeper.

What consequences will this bring? We might as well look back at the crisis in June last year, when Ukraine attacked the port of Sevastopol with ATACMS. The result directly alerted the defense ministers of the two countries and made an emergency call to avoid a serious escalation of the situation.

If the "Tomahawk" is really deployed this time, no one can predict how Russia will react once the Ukrainian army attacks facilities around Moscow. What is more serious is that once such long-range attacks become the norm,"Strategic mutual trust" between the United States and Russia will disappear completely.

Even if there is no direct exchange of fire, the risk of misjudgment will hang over Europe like a shadow. From a larger perspective, the model of "Europe pays for money and the United States shoots guns" is solidifying.

Not only will Trump¡¯s hardness not shorten the war, but it could put the conflict into a ¡°new normal¡±: the war is no longer a conflict, but an institutionalized confrontation.

Putin's speech is actually a response to this situation. He no longer expects the West to make concessions, nor does he expect the negotiating table to bring results. What he needs to do is to adapt Russia to the war and even find a new country in the war. Order, and Trump's choice just paved the road to war wider.

Putin's "Unification Day" speech is not just a political statement, but more like a watershed of the times. From the handshake of the "Special Conference" to the tit-for-tat confrontation today, the US-Russia relationship has once again returned to zero.

Next, the Ukrainian battlefield will no longer be just an Eastern European issue, but the stormy eye of a global geo-game, Russia will continue to consolidate new territories and build long-term warfare preparations; and the United States, led by Trump, will no longer be soft-handed, and may further push Ukraine to fight the ¡°back-Russia¡± targets.

The window for negotiations has been closed, and there is no sign of easing in the short term. The next "dialogue" may only be launched under artillery fire. This "parting" may appear to be a disagreement between the two leaders in their ideals, but in fact it is a structural contradiction that cannot be reconciled.

Putin and Trump¡¯s game,, is just a bigger conflict, on a table without mutual trust, each bid is a big bet, and this bet is taking Europe and the world to a more dangerous stage.