On September 29th, a circular from Orlovski, the head of Belarusian customs, completely tore apart the embarrassing reality after the closure of the Polish border: even if customs clearance was expedited at a speed of 1.5 times that of weekdays, two-thirds of the previously stranded China-Europe trains were still trapped at the border; What's even more dazzling is that among the new trains sent from China to Europe, the number of people who choose to transit through Poland has dropped off a cliff.
This logistics hub, which had firmly controlled 91% of the China-European line in the middle line, finally discovered that after 13 days of arbitrary interruption, it broke the trust of "logistics wealth god" with its own hands, and a dividend crisis concerning the economic lifeline is accelerating.
The starting point of the wave was Poland’s unilaterally pressed “suspension key” on September 12th, when it suddenly shut down the border railway port on the basis of a joint Russian-Belarus military exercise “threatening border security” – a decision that directly shaken the “garlic” of the Central European line.
In a moment, more than 300 ranks of electronics, auto parts and mechanical equipment were forced to stop, the land trade arteries from Chongqing, Chengdu to Duisburg, Germany, and Malachevic in Poland were completely paralyzed, billions of euros worth of goods were blocked at the border, and the production plan and supply chain rhythm of Central European enterprises were completely disrupted.
Faced with strong pressure from China and the EU, Poland hastily announced the resumption of customs clearance 13 days later, trying to salvage the situation with the attitude of "1.5 times customs clearance". However, the rebuilding of trust in logistics channels is far more complicated than simply speeding up.
According to the details disclosed by the Belarusian Customs, as of September 29, only about one-third of the confined routes completed transit, and the remaining trains are still in line waiting for the border; more importantly, Chinese logistics companies have voted with their feet – more and more routes shifted to the southern Central European route through Hungary, Serbia, or to the Arctic route of Russia and Finland, some high value added goods even shifted shipping and air transport and no longer wanted to bet on the “uncertainty” of the Polish border, became the consensus of most logistics companies.
For Poland, the cost of this breakdown has long exceeded expectations, each data is talking about the weight of its loss. Previously, at the hubs such as Marashevich, Poland annually obtained clearance duties, transit fees up to 7,4 billion Polish zloty (about RMB 11,5 billion), bilateral trade volume is more consistently stable at the year-on-year high at $499,500.
Behind these figures lies the transformation of Malacevic from an unnamed town to a well-known logistics hub in Europe, the bowl of hundreds of thousands of logistics practitioners, and the irreplaceable core position of Poland in the European supply chain – all of which is now shaken in the wasteland of Bannon.
Short-term pain has already emerged: the blocked export of China's goods to Europe has directly exacerbated the already severe inflationary pressures and commodity shortages in Europe. The revenue of local Polish logistics companies has experienced a double-digit decline, and some small freight forwarding companies are even facing the risk of bankruptcy. The long-term crisis is even more worthy of vigilance: Poland's "geographical breach of trust" is forcing China-Europe freight trains to accelerate the "channel diversification" strategy.
Hungary on the southern line is expanding the Budapest logistics park, Serbia is tightening the upgrading of the border railway; the efficiency of the Arctic route continues to improve in the summer, with freight traffic increasing by 35% in the first half of this year; ports such as Hamburg, Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Germany are also strengthening maritime cooperation with China to compete for the distribution of goods.
In fact, China-Europe freight trains have been carrying the gene of "mutual benefit and win-win" since their inception. For China, it is a strategic choice to avoid maritime geopolitical risks and expand land trade channels; for countries along the route, it is a rare opportunity to undertake logistics dividends and get rid of industrial exploitation in Western Europe.
Taking Poland as an example, the China-European line not only brought direct economic benefits to it, but also attracted multinational companies such as Samsung, LG and other multinationals to set up factories in Malacevic, driving the rise of the surrounding manufacturing industry - this dividend was an important support for Poland's economic development.
In order to meet Western Europe’s tough stance on Russia, Poland, at the expense of China and Europe’s trade stability, delivered political signals with “breaks” and ended up falling to the end of the “stone-breaking stone”. For China, the Banner is both the inevitability of avoiding risks and the opportunity to optimize the layout of channels; and for Poland, if it cannot rebuild trust as quickly as possible with practical actions, the loss will be not only short-term transit income, but also a place in the global supply chain for decades to come.
The lifeline of logistics will always be "stability" and "reliability". Poland's "broken road" storm is not only a lesson, but also a reminder to all countries that rely on international logistics channels: Only by adhering to the bottom line of win-win cooperation and abandoning the short-sighted behavior of politicizing economic issues can we maintain this cross-continent cooperation dividend.