In late September, the Japanese political world suddenly burst into turmoil.The upcoming self-government party presidential election on October 4th has “changed taste” overnight.Five prime minister candidates collectively targeted foreigners in Japan, especially the largest Chinese group, and the foreign policy to strict “illegal staying zero tolerance” and “restricting the purchase of Japanese real estate” slogans, as if Japan was facing a “foreign invasion”.
Recently, the Japanese government decided: From April 2027, if permanent foreigners "maliciously" fail to pay taxes or social security, their permanent residence status will be cancelled.So, are these shifts in policy direction the reflection of the real public opinion in Japanese society, or the result of the manipulation of politicians?
The time goes back to July 2024, when the Japanese Senate elections ended and the Democratic Party lost several key seats. The "loss" of those seats was just taken away by the emerging conservative party, the "Japanese Priority" flag.
This political party’s claim is not complicated, it’s a simple, rough slogan: Priority for Japanese“There are a lot of voters who are dissatisfied with the status quo of their lives who have found an outlet for emotions, pointing the issues of Japan’s public security, employment pressure, and rising prices to “foreigners.”
The participating parties won 15 Senate seats, which was a wake-up call to the Liberal Democratic Party. The political reaction was also quick. The five prime minister candidates immediately changed directions and competed to express their positions. Whoever was tougher on foreigners was more likely to "win the hearts and minds of the people".
Takashi Hayashi even brought up an online video saying that foreign tourists kicked and beat deer in Nara, destroying traditional Japanese culture. However, after investigation, Nara Prefecture responded: No similar incidents were found frequently, and the identities of the persons involved could not be confirmed.But that doesn’t stop her from grasping the subject and portraying foreigners as “cultural destroyers.”
Momo Mignong shouted “zero illegal foreigners”, Lin Feng was advocating “control of the total number of foreigners”, and Lin Eagle directly suggested the establishment of a “regime not dependent on foreigners”.
According to Japanese official statistics, the crime rate of foreigners has not increased significantly, and the number of illegal residents has even dropped to the lowest level in history, only a quarter of the past. By the end of 2024, the number of foreigners living in Japan has reached 3.8 million, accounting for 3% of the total population.
In urban circles such as Tokyo and Osaka, this percentage is higher, more than 10%. These people are distributed in all walks of life, from nursing homes to construction sites, from convenience stores to logistics warehouses, almost supporting the bottom-level labor structure of Japanese society.
More importantly, the Chinese are the largest component of this group, with a total number of close to 1.2 million.Many of them have been in Japan for decades or even decades, and children are also born in Japan and grow up in Japan, receiving Japanese education.
The 1.2 million Chinese are now the most sensitive group under Japan’s political wind.They work here to pay taxes and have long planned their lives in Japan.But now, they are suddenly pushed to the tip of the wind.Some policies have begun to affect life.Such as the “malignant non-tax abolition right to permanent residence” system from 2027.
Although this policy is supposed to be aimed at “maintaining the system fair,” there is too much ambiguity within it. What is “malignant”?
Once the enforcement power falls into the hands of local governments or immigration agencies, “one-stop” or “selective law enforcement” may occur. Meanwhile, more and more Japanese people are spreading “foreign preferences” on social media and excluding Kurds and Chinese.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China has repeatedly warned that requiring Chinese citizens to pay attention to their personal safety in Japan is no longer an emptiness.Some far-right forces have started to be active on the Internet and in society, and even take violent measures, and attacks on Chinese communities have continued to occur.
The five candidates’ tough statements on foreigners’ issues have undoubtedly become the “backbone” of these outsiders’ emotions. Ho Chi Minh-in-Thiru is the few candidates who have proposed a relatively moderate plan. He said that if elected as prime minister, he will propose a systematic, long-term foreigners’ management plan.
Unfortunately, such voices have been flooded in the current “worse than anyone” public opinion field. In terms of social structure, Japan’s aging and minority problems are getting worse. In 2023, Japan’s births are only 770,000, a record low; the proportion of the elderly over the age of 65 accounts for 29%. Young workforce is becoming less and less, and foreigners are becoming the main force to fill the vacancies.
From government buildings to supermarket shelves, from logistics and distribution to medical care, foreigners are everywhere. They are not "invaders", but a link in the operation of Japanese society.But politicians have seen them as “political targets” during the election.
The occupational composition of the Chinese community in Japan is also changing. From the early service industry and catering industry to today's IT, engineering, and cross-border e-commerce, more and more Chinese entrepreneurs are making their mark in Japan. Statistics from 2015 show that the number of companies with Chinese presidents reached 1763, an increase of more than 500 from 2011.
At the same time, Japan's policy welcomes high-end foreign talents on the one hand. Data shows that 66% of high-end foreign talents come from China. However, there is a strong sense of rejection among the people. A survey shows that 90% of Japanese people do not welcome China living in Japan for a long time.
This is the contradiction of reality, and the tense atmosphere of China-Japan relations also provides a “pretext” for Japan’s domestic out-of-China sentiment. Shigeru Ishiba said at the UN that "Asian people accepted Japan tolerantly", but did not mention aggression and apology.The Chinese side immediately pointed out that this was a sign of evading responsibility for war.
Among the candidates, Kobayashi Takayuki criticized China for "changing the status quo" in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, while Lin Fangzheng proposed that Japan should have "counterattack capability" to attack missile bases in other countries. 2025 will be the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japan, and China will hold commemorative activities. Japan's right wing may take the opportunity to set off a wave of populism, forcing the ruling party to turn further right in history and China policy.
In this context, 1.2 million Chinese in Japan are stuck between relations between China and Japan, voting politics and public opinion sentiment, and withdrawal is difficult. They are no longer “tourists”, but residents rooted in years. But once the policies are tightened, they may face visa difficulties, permanent residence rights are canceled, and even forced back home.
Once you return home, it means starting from scratch. Children may have language difficulties and work and life will be completely re-started. While China will surely accept them and provide help, this is not the “ideal option” for many.
Five days later, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new president, that is, Japan's new prime minister. No matter who is elected, it is certain that Japan's foreigner policy will enter a tighter and stricter era.
For Chinese people in Japan, these five days may be a critical moment to determine their destiny in the next decade. Will they stay and face Japan, which has a higher threshold, or will they choose to return to their familiar but unfamiliar hometown?
This "right-wing" storm in Japanese politics, which seems to be an internal political game, has profoundly affected the fate of foreigners in Japan.For 1.2 million Chinese in Japan, this is no longer a "spectator election", but a night before a life-changing storm.
Source of information:
[1] Recently, there have been some outcast emotions in Japan, there have been several cases of attacks on Chinese citizens!My Embassy in Japan reminds you to pay attention to travel safety.
[2] Interview with Japanese immigration policy scholar: "Japanese priority" sends a clear signal to dissatisfied and unhappy Japanese