The contents of this article are written with authoritative materials and personal opinions. The source of the literature has been marked at the end of the article, so please know.
The situation is changing.
On September 22nd, the Presidential Election Management Committee of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan issued an announcement. Five people, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Koizumi Shinjiro, former Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Fangzheng, former Minister of Economic Security Kobayashi Takayuki and former Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party Toshimitsu Motegi, officially signed up for election.
These five people were all regular faces in last year's presidential election, when they all lost to Shigeru Shi.
Now in power less than a year after the resignation announcement, the election has been mocked by the opposition as "the resurrection of the losers a year ago."
The five defeated generals in last year's presidential election are now on the stage again. Shinjiro Koizumi and Saami Takashi are temporarily leading in the polls, but the final result depends on the complex factional game within the party.
According to the Japan Broadcasting Association, five candidates delivered speeches at the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party on the afternoon of September 22nd. They all unanimously regard economic issues as a priority issue，The focus will be on how to deal with the current rising prices.
It is worth noting that The issue of foreigners becomes the focus of almost every candidate.
The company said it intends to rethink how to establish relations with foreigners, while the Japanese citizens are concerned about the illegal employment of foreigners in some areas.
All five candidates have made it clear that if they win the election, they will not dissolve Congress and compel a general election.
Analysts believe that since the ruling coalition formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party has lost more than half of the seats in both the House and Senate, the Liberal Democratic Party's status is in jeopardy.
The presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party adopts a unique voting mechanism.The total number of votes in the first round was 590 votes, of which 295 Liberal Democratic Party members each had one vote, and ordinary party members and "party friends" in various places were converted into 295 local votes in proportion.
If in the first round of voting a candidate gets more than half the vote, the candidate is directly elected; if no one gets more than half the vote, the first two candidates enter the second round of voting.
In the second round of the vote, 295 MPs each held one vote, plus one vote in each of the 47 provinces and provinces.Total 342 votes.
Compared to last year, the number of party members entitled to vote decreased to approximately 91,6 million, down more than 140,000 from the previous election.
On the one hand, this is due to the decrease in the overall number of Liberal Democratic Party members; on the other hand, this election stipulates that only party members who have paid party dues for two years can vote, resulting in some new party members having no right to participate.
After the Liberal Democratic Party's "black money" scandal was exposed at the end of 2023, the number of party members has declined for two consecutive years.Data released by the Liberal Democratic Party in March this year showed that the party's membership has dropped to less than 1.03 million.
He dissolved the parliament after being elected president of the Democratic Party last year, leading to the Democratic Party's election loss, becoming a minority party.The difficulties facing the Liberal Democratic Party today are closely related to Shigeru Ishiba's ruling mistakes.
In the Senate election in July this year, the "foreigners' issue" became the focus of the election campaign, which made the Japanese participating parties, which focused on "Japanese first", suddenly emerge.
Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet approval plummeted from 38% to 20.8%It was the lowest since the ruling, and the unsupported rate rose to 55%.
In Japanese politics, if the support rate falls below 20 percent, it is considered to enter the downward region.
Shigeru Ishiba's predicament is no accident. Japan is experiencing the most serious inflation crisis since the 1980s. The CPI index rose 4.0% year-on-year in May, exceeding 4% for six consecutive months.
In particular, the soaring price of rice triggered the "Linghe Rice uproar."
Although the government has put in reserve rice, due to the interception of middlemen manipulated by the Japan Agricultural Association, the actual proportion flowing into the market is less than 7%. The people still face the dilemma of "saving rice".
In this presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, Fumio Kishida played a key role.
Though Shaytada文雄 is no longer prime minister, he still has little power of speech within the Self-Democratic Party.As the leader of the Kishida faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida has important influence in faction politics.
There has always been a complex party politics.Even if most of the valves were dissolved due to the "black gold scandal", the self-government party "big asses" such as麻生太郎,岸田文雄,菅义伟 and others still have little voice in the party, which can determine the direction of some votes.
In 2021, when Shakyata was elected president of the self-government party,He mainly received the support of the Shaytada faction, as well as some of the细田派 and麻生派, mostly for the self-government party to build forces.
At that time, some analysts believed that Kishida's victory was the result of the mechanical operation of the Liberal Democratic Party faction.
Today, who of the five candidates will be able to gain the support of in-party giants such as Shayta will be a key factor in determining the outcome of the election.
In particular, the flow of "stone-breaking votes" is also very important, and those who voted for the last president's election may vote for the candidate who will inherit the policy of the stone-breaking.
Whosoever will be elected as the new leader of the Democratic Party will face huge challenges.
The ruling coalition formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party has lost more than half of the seats in both the House and Senate, the new president will continue to face the dilemma of a minority in power.
In this context, how to play with the opposition and win popular support through effective policies is an important issue facing the Democratic Party.The new president must find ways to deal with severe problems such as rising prices and the downturn of the economy.
Before the vote on October 4th, the five candidates will explain their policy propositions in a series of public occasions.
How to deal with the current rising prices is seen as a core issue, at the same time how to restructure the unity within the party, and under the status quo of a few ruling parties in Congress to cooperate with the opposition and promote the adoption of budgets and bills, also became the focus of this presidential election.
This election will not only determine who will be Japan’s next prime minister, but will also test the reunification of faction forces within the Democratic Party.
The support tendency of party giants such as岸田文雄 may be a decisive factor.
The new leader faces a difficult situation.Ways must be found to work with opposition parties if the ruling coalition loses majorities in both houses of Congress.
The election results on October 4th will determine whether Japanese politics will move towards a new stability or return to the chaos of "nine phases in ten years".
References:
“Five-person competition, two major determinants who will be Japan’s next prime minister” 2025-09-23 08:34 Source: China Daily Network
The Election of the New President of the Japanese Self-Democratic Party Immediately Reduces the Number of Party Members in the Right to Vote 2025-09-22 13:25 PM Source: Lightning Network
3. "Japan's rice price rises again, retail prices approach historical highs" 2025-09-23 08:55| Source: Cailian