At the recent United Nations General Assembly in New York, a sentence came from the Russian Foreign Minister LavrovThe idea is to make the atmosphere of the place momentum.

He said the representatives of India and Brazil, the ¡°global South,¡± should be promoted directly to permanent members with a veto right.

At first glance, it seems like a call for reform in line with the times.But looking closely at the list, it is inevitable that China will shrink ¨C one of them is Beijing on international and border issues. Old opponent India¡£This is not only a diplomatic "test", but also a subtle geopolitical test.

On-site: Lavrov's carefully designed "explosion moment"

This is not an ordinary speech. Lavrov at the 80th High-level meeting of the United Nations General AssemblyThe arrangements above are very elaborate ¨C he puts the golden time of the speech, speaking slowly, first with a narrative of ¡°the global South is rising¡± and then throws the core arguments:

¡°India and Brazil¡¯s economic power and international influence are enough to represent the voices of the vast majority of developing countries, and they deserve a status in the Security Council that is consistent with reality.¡±

Representatives around were sitting for a while. Someone was fast recording, and some people exchanged eyes with each other.

[If this really becomes a reality, the pattern of "five permanent members" that has remained unchanged for 80 years will be rewritten-the five permanent members will become seven permanent members, and there will be two new faces in the highest power club on earth.]

How did the five come from?

must from 1945At the end of the Second World War, the United Nations was founded, and the United States, the Soviet Union, China, Britain, France, as victorious countries, directly sat on the cross chair of the permanent members of the Security Council.

The gold of this position is ¡°one-voted veto¡± ¡ª even if most member states around the world agree, as long as you shake your head, a paper resolution about the fetus is in the womb. Privileges in privilegesIt is also the hardest card in international affairs.

Year 1965The UN reformed once, expanding the seats of non-permanent councillors from six to ten, but the five-permanent seats remained unchanged.This means that for more than half a century, the core power distribution of the Security Council has remained in the post-war mode.

The problem is-today's world is different from what it was then.

Time: Why are you leaving this topic now?

The current global landscape is drastically reshaping ¨C Western dominance is challenged, and ¡°global South¡± is rising in economic and political speech.

India, the population has surpassed China, the total economy jumped the fifth in the world, is a heavyweight country with deep interaction with the West among the BRICS members;
Brazil, South America, agricultural exports, energy reserves, regional diplomacy are hard forces.

Lavrov's mention of India and Brazil is a multiple signal:

• wooing developing countries: Shaping Russia's image of supporting the "rise of the South";
• The balance of the West.: Let potential partners enter the core decision-making circle and increase game chips;
• A diplomatic problem for China.: China-Pakistan relations are good, but China and India have long-standing border disputes. This leaves China in a dilemma between supporting reform and preventing risks.

Parties: Disagreement

America is
Support for India is public ¨C U.S.-India relations have continued to warm up in recent years, and the United States sees India as the key to holding on to China in the Asia-Pacific layout.
Meanwhile, the United States has consistently advocated Japan¡¯s inclusion, while Brazil is cautious, fearing that its position on climate and trade will not match the United States.
In addition, the U.S. threw out the ¡°give Africa two permanent seats¡± trick, obviously a massive withdrawal of African diplomacy.

China
In principle, Beijing supports the reform of the Security Council and Brazil's entry into the WTO (after all, China and Brazil are BRICS partners and cooperate closely).
But India is another matter-the Sino-Indian border dispute is unresolved, and if India gets the veto power, it may pose a direct constraint when it comes to territorial and security affairs, which is a risk that cannot be ignored for China.

English
The position is relatively consistent, supporting Germany, India, Japan, and Brazil joining the permanent membership, and also supporting giving Africa two seats. For them, adding several allies to the core of power can distract the attention of China, the United States and Russia and pose no major threat to themselves.

Core problem: Charter and "one-vote veto"

To change the composition of the Security Council, the Charter of the United Nations must be amended.

• The United Nations General Assembly has Two thirdssupport from Member States;
• The existing five must be voted in favour.

This means that even with the support of four permanent members of the council, a shake of the head remains, reforms are directly struck to death.

What is more sensitive is the issue of veto power-if new members don't have veto power, their status will be "hemiplegic"; If there is veto power, the efficiency of decision-making may avalanche. Now it is difficult for the five permanent members to coordinate, and the seven permanent members or even the nine permanent members. I'm afraid the normal state is the "deadlock meeting".

Countries like Finland and New Zealand have long criticized the veto system as an ¡°obsolete closed club,¡± but the existing five can¡¯t easily give up this sharpest weapon.

Deep Interpretation: The Abacus Behind Lavrov

From power structureSee, this is a standard ¡°great power game¡±:

• Russia uses "reform" rhetoric to win favor from the global South and ease its sense of isolation on the international stage;
• By the way, increasing the variables of the western system makes the existing power distribution more complicated and more difficult to form a stable western synergy;
• Through India's entry into the WTO, China will be pushed into a diplomatic dilemma that must express its position.

This strategy can not only create a diplomatic image that is "pro-fairness", but also create cracks in the dark-this is a typical multi-handed move.

Impact Assessment: Winners and Losers

short period£º

• Add points for Russia's image in developing countries;
• India and Brazil to gain greater international exposure and agenda setting;
• China needs to maintain a balanced speech ¡ª neither opposed to reforms, nor vetoed India.

medium term£º

• The Security Council negotiating table will be longer and the level of complexity of the negotiation process will rise.
• There may be more tug-of-war on issues in the West, and the voice of emerging economies will rise.

Long term£º

• If the reform is successful, it will be the largest redrawing of the power map in the global governance structure after World War II;
• If the reform fails, the existing five-member system will still be maintained, but the trust of the global South in the United Nations may continue to decline, the regional cooperation mechanism will become more active, and the symbolic nature of the Security Council will be greater than substantive.

This proposal is not a flash in the pan, but a well-designed test of public opinion. The call for reform of the Security Council will revive, and it will even become a standard issue for countries to compete for the right to speak in public.

[Five permanent changes to seven permanent] It sounds passionate, but it actually affects the cutting method of the world's highest power cake.
For China, this is not only a question of diplomatic wisdom, but also a foresight for the international strategic layout in the coming decades.

This game has just begun.
How do you think China should express its position in this proposal to expand the membership of the Security Council? Is it to promote reform or stick to the status quo? Feel free to discuss in the comments section.

reference£º

1. Official statement of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (September 24, 2025)-Transcript of Lavrov's speech at the high-level meeting of the 80th United Nations General Assembly
2. United Nations News Center (September 25, 2025)-Special report on "Security Council Reform Issues"
3. U.S. State Department Press Conference (26 September 2025) - Official Statement on Security Council Expansion
4. Press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China (September 27, 2025) - A spokesman asks reporters about the Security Council reform
5. UK Foreign Ministry Policy Document (September 2025) ¨C Position Document on the Reform of the United Nations
6. Lavrov: Support Brazil and India's "permanent membership" in the Security Council-2025-09-28 13: 30 ¡¤ Reference News