Reference News Network reported on September 30 According to a report on the British "Guardian" website on September 29, the former head of the British MI5 said that due to the depth and intensity of the cyber attacks, sabotage and other hostile activities launched by Moscow against the UK, the UK may already be at war with Russia.

Flag of Britain and Russia.

Eliza Manningham-Blair, who headed the five British military intelligence agencies 20 years ago, said she agreed with the comments of Russian expert Fiona Hill, who said in an interview with the Guardian earlier this year that Moscow was at war with the West.

Manningham-Blair said, ¡°Since the invasion of Ukraine, I have read things that show what the Russians are doing here, including destruction, intelligence gathering, attackers, and so on.¡±

She mentioned Hill on a podcast episode interviewed by John McFaul, Speaker of the House of Lords of the UK Parliament. Hill advised US President Trump during his first term and participated in writing Britain's strategic defense assessment report.

She said: ¡°She said we have been at war with Russia, and I think this statement may be correct. It¡¯s a different type of war, but hostility, cyber attacks, physical attacks and intelligence work are very widespread.¡±

Extended reading

As the confrontation between NATO and Russia escalates, will Poland become the backbone of European security or will it fall victim again?

On the night of 9 September, about 20 Russian drones allegedly entered Poland¡¯s airspace, which not only escalated tensions between Poland and Russia, but also predicted a change in Poland¡¯s position in the European security landscape. Poland has long been a key member of NATO¡¯s eastern wing and has taken on the key functions of defending the European security defense line.

On September 11, 2025, Poland, Poznan-Kheresny, Polish President Karol Navratsky met soldiers at the 31st Tactical Air Force Base. The President's emergency visit to the Kheresny Air Force Base is linked to Russian drone infringement of airspace

The drone incident has opened up the difficult choice Poland is currently facing: how to find a balance between ensuring national security, deepening cooperative relations with NATO and responding to the increasing military temptations from Russia; Although NATO's military deployment in Poland and the activation of the collective defense mechanism have enhanced Poland's defense capabilities, they have also increased the risk of Poland being involved in a broader conflict.

Poland's strategic trade-off and enterprising will not only profoundly affect its own security prospects, but also widely affect the future direction of the European security pattern. How Poland adjusts its role in the NATO system and how it recognizes and responds to external threats has become an important factor in judging whether the European security framework can maintain stability and transformation.

Historical Sadness, Geographical Sensitivity and Poland's Role Change

The deep historical memory and geographical sensitivity of Russia constitute the driving force behind Poland's tough stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Poland has repeatedly fallen victim to the hegemony of European powers, especially under the shadow of military interference and annexation by Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union. Historical trauma has made "never again subject to Russia" the core strategy of its national security. This psychological fear of the "imperial threat" has long been rooted in the collective consciousness of the Polish nation, resulting in Poland's long-term deep vigilance and hostility towards Russia. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has created an opportunity for Poland to exert its "great power energy." From receiving Western leaders and transporting military equipment to signing security cooperation agreements, Poland has deeply participated in and bound aid to Ukraine.

Poland, as a country on the east wing of NATO, is geographically adjacent to Belarus and Russia¡¯s Kaliningrad region. Poland sees Ukraine as a strategic buffer zone, declaring that ¡°Kiev today is Warsaw tomorrow.¡± When Russian drones violated Poland¡¯s airspace, Poland quickly took a military counterattack and urgently launched NATO¡¯s Fourth Consultation Mechanism of the North Atlantic Convention. This move reflects the historical awareness and geopolitical sensitivity of infiltrating the bone marrow and clearly conveys Poland¡¯s high stance of zero tolerance for any form of sovereignty violation.

The drone incident reshapes Poland's European defense role

The drone incident became a catalyst for Poland's rapid strategic rise on the European security chessboard. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk characterized the incident as an "unprecedented provocation" and couldn't wait to discuss the possibility of nuclear sharing with France. This not only highlights Poland's concerns about its own security vulnerability, but also highlights the reality of becoming the geopolitical focus of Central and Eastern Europe. Whether the real strategic intention behind it is to strengthen self-defense capabilities or strive to have more say in NATO, Poland's decisive response has attracted widespread attention from the international community. Taking advantage of the hype of the drone incident, it is reminiscent of whether Poland can gain more strategic space and resources.

Polish Prime Minister Tusk

The joint action of the EU and NATO consolidated Poland¡¯s role as a ¡°Eastern Guard¡± against Russia¡¯s threat. The day after the drone incident, European Commission President Von der Leyen announced that the EU would launch the ¡°Eastern Wing Monitoring Program¡± and that NATO would then deploy the ¡°Eastern Guard¡± system with the support of major member states such as Denmark, France, Britain and Germany. This collective military mobilisation and nuclear deterrence strategy significantly boosted Poland¡¯s security confidence in the short term, winning strong domestic and foreign political support. These measures were not only a direct response to Poland¡¯s security needs, but also highlighted the Western camp¡¯s view of Poland as its eastern defence line and increased Poland¡¯s influence and decision-making power within NATO.

With the opportunity to communicate the drone incidents, Poland has successfully pushed forward its long-standing demands to expand national interests and regional influence. The drone incident dispute has not yet settled, and Poland has once again asked Germany for massive WWII compensation and immediate approval for the long-term stationing of NATO forces. These moves are not coincidental, and are highly consistent with Poland's long-term goal of strengthening national defense and increasing military strength. Poland has significantly exceeded NATO's GDP standard of 2% of national defense spending, the purchase of F-35 stealth fighter jets and Patriot air defense systems, and the implementation of the "Eastern Shield" program, all aimed at making Poland one of the "most powerful armies in Europe".

A series of chain reactions triggered by the drone incident have shaped Poland's position and trend in the security landscape of Central and Eastern Europe and even the whole Europe. Poland's active involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its tough stance towards Russia have significantly enhanced Poland's role as a strategic outpost in the Western camp. The drone incident has become a stress test for Poland to strengthen national defense, seek nuclear sharing and deepen cooperation with NATO. Through this series of intensive defense operations, Poland has not only further built its own security environment under the trend of the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but has also successfully embedded itself in the future European security architecture, becoming an indispensable and key link, which has a profound impact on Europe. The rebalancing and stability of power have had a profound impact.

Conflict risks and economic costs under Poland¡¯s tough stance

Poland¡¯s defense-strengthening strategy has significantly exacerbated its geopolitical risks and the heavy economic burden, while improving national security to alleviate security concerns.

Although Polish society generally holds negative views on Russia, there are obvious differences among the public on whether to directly intervene in military conflicts. Once the war in Russia and Ukraine escalates and impacts people's daily lives, anti-war sentiment may rapidly ferment, creating unnegligible public opinion pressure on the ruling authorities. In addition, although Poland enjoys the guarantee commitment of NATO's collective defense mechanism, once local frictions intensify and spill over into full-scale confrontation, it still needs to rely on extremely complex multi-party coordination and consensus-building within NATO. Even if Poland intends to take more proactive military action, it will have to carefully consider the positions and limits of support of its allies. The U.S. military presence and large-scale arms sales have certainly enhanced Poland's defensive capabilities, which will undoubtedly be interpreted by Russia as strategic provocations, which will in turn lead to a worsening of the security dilemma.

Whether Poland will be directly involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict depends largely on two key variables ¨C strategic misjudgment and sudden external events. Any further military trials by Russia ¨C such as a recent drone cross-border incident ¨C will directly test Poland¡¯s reaction capabilities and strategic determination. If missiles or drones re-enter Poland¡¯s airspace in the future, and even cause casualties or damage to facilities, Warsaw may find it difficult to maintain restraint. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has threatened, ¡°If another missile or aircraft is not allowed, whether intentionally or erroneously, to enter our airspace and be shot down, and the remains are in NATO territory, please don¡¯t come here to complain.¡±

The complexity of modern intelligent warfare further increases the risk of crisis misjudgment. Missile displacement and electronic warfare interference can trigger unplanned military action escalation, becoming the spark of out-of-control, Poland may unintentionally fall into a wider uncontrolled conflict whirlwind. On the morning of September 28, Russia launched a massive airstrike on Ukraine, the Polish embassy in Ukraine was hit. This undoubtedly exacerbated the tense relations between Russia and Poland, poured fuel on the regional security situation, and also tested Poland's strategic capabilities and strength.

Poland¡¯s hard-hearted attitude is pushing it to the forefront of the geo-game and becoming a dangerous front for Western camps to confront Russia. Though NATO¡¯s Article 5 provides collective defence commitments, if Russia sees Poland¡¯s military mobilization as a systematic ¡°provocation¡±, taking preemptive or escalating countermeasures, regional conflict risks are significantly expanding. In extreme cases, if the conflict is pushed to the edge of nuclear deterrence, the future crisis may unfold under a more uncertain and more dangerous ¡°dark cloud cover.¡±

In addition to security risks, Poland has also paid a heavy price on the economic level. Poland unilaterally closed its border with Belarus on the basis of ¡°national security¡±, leading to a stagnation of the Central European border, an important trade artery across Asia and Europe. As a key hub for the Central European border to enter the European Union, Poland¡¯s Malasevich port accounts for about 90% of its transit volume. Poland¡¯s closure of the border, despite its intention to show NATO¡¯s stance and pressure on Russia and Belarus, has serious economic consequences. In the two weeks after the closure of the port, Poland¡¯s state-owned railway giant PKP Cargo, which can earn €250 billion a year from the European border, has been severely impacted, with local unemployment rising, customs

More importantly, this move exposes the unpredictability and instability of the Polish policy environment, prompting international merchants and capital to begin to be forced or actively seeking alternative routes to avoid excessive reliance on Polish channels. 18 days of direct European "Central European Arctic Express" and cross-Caspian "Southern Channel" alternatives are gradually rising, weakening Poland's long-standing irreplaceability as a "Central European gateway". Poland has undermined its long-term credibility as a reliable cross-border country, causing chain effects and complaints on the overall economic stability of China, especially with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The decision to stop the border has triggered China's reassessment of its supply chain layout and regional cooperation

Poland's strategic involvement among security, economy and diplomacy

Poland is at a critical strategic crossroads: the strategic rapid advance in the face of changes in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not only related to its own security, but will also profoundly affect the evolution of the security architecture in Central and Eastern Europe and even Europe as a whole. Poland continues to strengthen its armaments and adopts a firm tough stance towards Russia, suddenly becoming the frontier force of the Western camp against Russia.

However, whether Poland can find a balance between strengthening its own defense, maintaining regional stability and seeking greater international discourse power will determine its strategic adjustment in the process of European political reconstruction game. At a time when the Trump administration lacks substantial progress in mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and faced with Russia's frequent military operations, how can Poland not only demonstrate its determination and bottom line, but also manage the crisis and prevent the spiral escalation of confrontation, while at the same time carrying out flexible diplomacy and avoiding economic The negative consequences of militarization are multiple strategic dilemmas that the Polish government has to weigh urgently.