Preliminary
No matter how big the U.S. aircraft carrier is, it cannot withstand a cross-oceanic ban. On September 25, China announced that it would add three U.S. entities to the export control list.
As the saying goes: one move moves the whole body, and these companies hold the only one in the United States Construction of aircraft carrier, and one imported from Qingdao 70,000-ton floating dockThe impact is far beyond imagination.
How will the US aircraft carrier construction industry be affected? How should the US government break the situation?
The only factory that can build aircraft carriers
How many American shipyards can build aircraft carriers? a， Newport News。 This shipyard can not only build it, but also the only one that can replace the "heart" of an aircraft carrier ( replacement of nuclear reactors.) place. 11 aircraft carriers., whichever ship needs overhaul, you have to wait in line for this factory.
The only one, and often the most vulnerable.Why did the Chinese prefer it?Because the snake hit seven inches. Newport NewsNot only is it an aircraft carrier, it is also the only aircraft carrier in the United States The nuclear submarine.One of the factories, the other is a general electric boat.
Columbia ClassStrategic nuclear submarines Virginia levelAttacking nuclear submarines, all on the delay list, generally extended for more than a year. The only thing that can createFactory for Wasp-class and US-class amphibious assault ships.
The construction state of these types is also in the delayed mud. Last June, goviniThe U.S. Defense Intelligence Company has released a report that clearly disrupts the U.S. defense supply chain’s reliance on China.
The key conclusion is that the United States Department of Defense More than 20,000 parts, directly affected by China's export ban, involving all departments of the US military A thousand weapon systems。
The report named several big-appetite systems: the Navy's Arleigh Burke-classDestroyers, U.S. -class amphibious assault ships, Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, nuclear missile programs. You can see by looking at the list that they all match by Huntington Ingels.The product is tied to a rope.
Materials are only one part of it. What Chinese suppliers provide to the U.S. military industry system also include data links, electronic components, general parts, thrusters, software, structural parts, and testing services. these are The two objects, after the ban, the production rhythm will inevitably be affected.
Loma's F-35Delivery failed, Boeing Aircraft Delivery Yakuza, GE to India F404The engine has been delayed for years. The Task Missile.Seventy percent of the parts are related to Chinese companies.How much connection is there behind these events and Chinese regulation?
It is difficult for the outside world to get official recognition, but from the logic of the supply chain, the impact must be there. ingles shipyardBought a crane from Qingdao Beihai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. 70 thousand tons.This stuff is huge and cannot be hidden like socks.
The people in the factory know best that the floating dock is the key node in the closing, launching, and maintenance of large ships, and the chain collapses when it stops.
85 sealed circles, 11 aircraft carriers captured
The sealing ring looks inconspicuous, just like a bicycle valve core. But the floating dock must be replaced every quarter. Without it, 70 thousand tons.The steel behemoths would not dare to use them. If you dare not use floating docks, the aircraft carrier will not be able to dock for maintenance.
11 aircraft carriersLine up and watch the inventory bottom day by day. The warehouse keeper marked the date on the notebook and 92 days91 days, 90 days...it’s not the most headache yet. Los Angeles-classNuclear submarine "Boycey" stopped outside the dry boat, with a gray boat with a number SSN-764。
It queued up to enter the factory in 2015, signed the contract in 2024, and was told that it would not be completed until 2030. Repairing a nuclear submarine in 15 years is not a delay, it is systemic paralysis. The on-site record reads: the engine cooling pump is missing and the sonar cover cracks have not been repaired.
The worker put the watch into the folder, and fine rust powder fell from the cracks. The floating dock covers an area as big as ten football fields and can lift a 40,000-ton hull at one time.
This equipment was shipped out from Qingdao Terminal in 2019, crossed the ocean to Michigan and then towed to Virginia. During trial operation, the US engineering notes recorded: lifting limit 5,500 tons of, the hydraulic system needs to replace the sealing rings quarterly.
Now the sealed circle list is in the sanctions item, remaining on the warehouse shelves. 85 of, only enough for three months. The White House interim report also lists another data: there are only six shipyards in the United States that can build warships, and only six shipyards that can be invested in aircraft carrier projects Newport NewsOne family.
After 2000, 20,000 skilled workers were lost. There are 13 gantry cranes, seven of which have exceeded the design life, and three need to be overhauled immediately. Remarks on the last line of the report: "If the missing parts continue, the lead time will be extended 40 percent。"
KennedyThe aircraft carrier CVN-79 was originally scheduled to be delivered in 2022 after its departure in 2019, but could not be delivered until 2027. The Washington.The aircraft carrier was delayed for nearly two years.
Currently undergoing overhaul by StanislasThe aircraft carrier is also expected to be delayed by more than a year. The Pentagon issued an order on the afternoon of the same day to investigate alternative suppliers. At the forefront of the table are Japan, South Korea, and Germany.
In the telephone conference, the Korean vessel company responded: steel panels can be supplied, delivery prices float 170%, the luck period is from October to Fourteenth. The American recorder wrote a question mark in the remarks column. The next day, a local Virginia newspaper published a short message that the shipyard might lay off 300 jobs.
Trade union representatives sent out a pamphlet at the edge of the fence, the bottom of the pamphlet was white, and the black letter read "Projects delayed, jobs transferred."Workers stood at the edge of the fence, no slogans, only a loud exchange of next year's pupil quotas.
Wouldn't it be enough to change the supplier?
The first time the U.S. thought of it was Europe.The phone went by and three companies offered: the original price. 4.3 times、 4.5 times、 4.7 times。 Delivery time? Start in 14 months. Technical certification? I'm sorry, at least two years.
This is not over yet. South Korean shipping companies directly said: Military equipment is too sensitive and will not accept it. Japan has a similar attitude. After all, it involves core military technology, and no one dares to take over casually. Finding substitutes is not unwilling, it is impossible.
Technical certification takes years, costs quadruple, and time can’t wait. Chinese suppliers provide the U.S. military-industrial system with more than just hardware. data chain, embedded software, security assessment algorithms, test standardization tools.
These » Soft restrictions"Outside can't be seen, but for military-industrial enterprises, it's a grip on the throat. A system that originally purchased hundreds of thousands of dollars from China, replaced by domestic self-research could cost tens of millions of dollars, and the time cycle directly doubled.
As a result, the budget exploded and the schedule collapsed. Look at the numbers and see how big the gap is: China shipbuilding accounts for global market share 52%Only the US occupies. 0.2%Korean technology is advanced, but the cost is three to four times that of China.The gap in the industrial foundation is not the slogan can fill.
In the past year, China has Rare earthRelated items, and Gallium、 by、 byExport control of critical metal materials has not been relaxed.These materials are necessary for the construction of aircraft carriers and submarines, there is no alternative.
Columbia ClassThe nuclear submarine was originally planned to deliver the first vessel in 2027, and the engineering file must use the hydraulic lock positioning device of the same series as the floating vessel, which has a total of four hundred and eighty sealing circles, previously supplied by Qingdao North Sea vessels.
Alternative inquiry documents were sent to three European companies, and the quotations were original prices 4.3 times、 4.5 times、 4.7 timesThe shortest deadline is fourteen months.The Washington Budget Office puts a rough line in the e-book Riga: "Building expenses added" 2 billionTo maintain the beat ".
At the Congressional Appropriations Group meeting, members flipped through documents, found coffee stains appeared on the side pages, and there was no vote on the two adjournment sessions. Where is the money? Who will pay? This is a problem.
Americans are stuck in themselves.
Remember what the old soldier said?"We didn't have to worry about the parts at the time. "In the shipbuilding history museum of Donaldson, there was a photograph of Enterprise No. 1, dated 1961.
Visiting the squad at the front of the glass, an old soldier pointing to the photo of the corner of the miniature floating boat model said: "Then we don't have to worry about the parts."The voice fell, and next to the child blinked and didn't answer. Rare earthto by Chip, ban it if you want.
It's different now. China accounts for global shipbuilding 52%, rare earth 90%, gallium 95%You don’t let me buy chips, and I can’t sell you seal circles.
On September 25, China issued an announcement that it decided to include three U.S. entities on the export control control control control control list and to ban exports to these three U.S. entities. The two objectsThe ongoing export activities must be stopped immediately.
These three American entities are: Huntington Ingalls IndustriesThe company is the United States Navy’s most important ship manufacturer. Flat Earth Management Company, the company mainly builds and manages real estate in the United States.
Including US military base facilities; Global dimensional companiesThe company mainly provides information, networking, training, special warfare and logistics services to the U.S. military.China's export restrictions will inevitably affect the U.S. military's capacity building.
It is not an impulse, but Reciprocal oppositionIn accordance with domestic law and international rules, compliance game. Notice issued by the Naval Logistics Agency is marked with a red crying number: Wally SchairaIt was sent to a Korean shipyard for maintenance.
Now it needs to be maintained again, but key valves are also included in the sanctions list. As a result, one column was vacated in the shipping schedule, and the maintenance projects originally scheduled for next year were forced to be postponed. As the New York Stock Market rings, by Huntington Ingels.Shares are falling. 7.2%, the trading volume was tripled.
Three hours later, the decline narrowed by 2 percentage points, and the exchange announcement said, "Supply is uncertain." At 8 p.m., the White House spokesman said only, "We are assessing the impact." There was no other explanation.
The TV station subtitles roll, the camera cuts to Newport NewsAt the door, the wind blows through the fence, the flags stretch straight and fall. From a floating dock, to a shipyard, to the military-industrial system of a country, this supply chain once broken, the impact is systematic.
conclusion
70,000 tons of float.Hanging on the sea, what hangs not only its destiny, but also the entire Western military industry system's determination Manufactured in Chinadependence. From a seal ring to a shipyard to a country's naval readiness, supply chains have rewritten the rules of great power competition.
When sanctions become a double-edged sword, how will the next contest unfold? This game has just begun.