Speaking of recent events on the U.S. side, I always felt that the battle was playing more and more like a big game, each step involved the world. On July 13, the South Korean intelligence department said that North Korea had shipped to Russia 2,8 thousand containers of arms, according to the 152 mm cannon, the total number exceeded 12 million.
North Korea has not only sent ammunition, but also 1,000 workers and 5,000 construction personnel to help with the mine clearance work. South Koreans estimate that this aid has caused North Korea more than 4,700 casualties, more than 600 confirmed deaths, equivalent to indirect warfare.
Russia launched 620 attacks on Kharkiv, Ukraine, on July 12, using 597 drones and 26 cruise missiles, and the Ukrainian Air Force shot down 319. As soon as the supplies arrived, the firepower on the front line became obviously fierce. The Russian artillery shell inventory was 15 times that of Ukraine, and it could suppress an average of 20,000 rounds per day. This shipment was transshipped from the Far East of North Korea, keeping a low profile and avoiding the eyes of the West.
At this time, Putin didn't rush to push the general offensive, but first stabilized the diplomatic backyard, and Lavrov went straight to Beijing. China has always emphasized that Sino-Russian relations are non-aligned, non-confrontational and non-targeted at third parties. Russia knows this, so it has to disclose the bottom first, so as not to escalate misunderstandings into strategic cracks.
North Korea's ammunition supply line, Russia's front line is confident
North Korea’s aid is not at the time, sooner or later, but at a key node in Ura. South Korea’s defense intelligence headquarters data shows that from 2024, North Korea will continue to deliver goods through maritime railway sources, containers not only 152 mm cannons, but also rockets.
Russia's own production cannot keep up, Western sanctions are stuck, and this batch of goods is directly renewed. Yonhap News Agency reported that North Korea's arsenal is working day and night. Although the quality is rough, it is durable and easy for the Russian army to use it. As soon as the engineering team arrived, many minefields on the eastern line were cleared. The construction team dug trenches and built fortresses, making the position much more stable. The South Koreans also said North Korea may send more troops to reinforce tens of thousands of troops within two months.
This is not a simple sale of weapons, it is a strategic bet. The Russian economy grew 4.1% last year, but the U.S. has a negative growth in the first half of the year, and Putin has a heavy load. On the Ukrainian side, Kharkov is bombed every day, the residents are sad, the international aid is much, but the firepower is not. Russia uses this supply to accelerate the pace, hundreds of missile drones were launched in the night of September 27-28, and the air defense of Kiev was not busy.
Putin knows that only ammunition can not win, and the allies must stand. Iran gives drones, and North Korea provides cannon bombs, this chain clamps a ring. Lavrov went to Yonshan and Tsipras to talk a round, is to settle bilateral affairs, do not spread into multilateral misreading. China's position is stable, China-Russia communication from a strategic height, avoid tactical small things to make a big disaster.
The supply line stretches, Russia is not only stable on the battlefield, but also the economy. United Nations data show that Russian oil exports have declined, but shifted to Asia, India and other countries have increased purchases. North Korea has a lot of cannons, quality problems are also emerging, Russian military feedback accuracy is low, waste rate is high. But the number overwhelms everything, front-line soldiers use caution.
South Korean intelligence agencies monitored rigorously and estimated the container route, from Pyongyang port to Vladivostok, and then the railway to Moscow. Russian warehouses were crowded, and commanders prioritized the Eastern line when allocated. Ukrainian intelligence said that this batch had doubled the Russian arms density, and the outskirts of Kharkov lost a lot. Putin's team assessed that a general assault was possible in the short term, but a diplomatic window was needed.
The Western secondary sanctions are tough, but Russia is ready, Iran and North Korea jointly hold on. To be honest, this helps to make Russian Utenping slightly sluggish, Ukraine has to ask for help, Europe has to pay more. After Trump came to power, the policy varies, Putin has to tighten the window period.
Lavrov's rapid march in Beijing, and China and Russia draw lightning protection zones
On July 13, Lavrov made a direct flight from Yunnan to Beijing, where he met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the same day. This trip was not a cross-country trip, it was a real deal. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs that the two talked about China-Russia relations, the SCO, the Ukraine crisis, relations with the United States and the Korean Peninsula.
Wang Yi said that China-Russia is the most stable relationship between the great powers today and is willing to prepare for the Tianjin summit with Russia to promote the development of counter-risk cooperation. Lavrov stated that he supported China's rotating chairman and deepened cooperation to safeguard multilateralism. The Russian Foreign Ministry added that Putin's visit to China and the 80th anniversary of the war against Japan were discussed.
Why didn't Putin do it first? Because North Korea's aid is sensitive, China doesn't want to be involved. The West loves to label, China, North Korea and Russia join forces or something, and Lavrov has to dismantle Taiwan. The two exchanged documents, stressing that the bilateral framework remains unchanged, that the North Korean affairs are private between Russia and the DPRK, and that China does not participate. Russia knows that China needs transparency, not empty talk.
After the meeting, Lavrov transferred to Tianjin to attend the SCO Foreign Ministers 'Meeting. Wang Yi presided over the meeting, and foreign ministers from Russia, Belarus, India, Iran and other countries arrived. The topics covered Ukraine, the Korean Peninsula, and the Iranian nuclear issue. Russia made a clear statement, supporting China in hosting the summit well and jointly resisting external pressure.
This platform is good. Shanghai Cooperation is a multilateral cooperation mechanism, which can touch many hot spots. Putin delivered a message through Lavrov: Ammunition is a tactic, and the strategic direction is stable. To put it bluntly, Russia is afraid that China will misjudge, stretch the distance and fall into the small circle of North Korea and Iran. That situation, Putin is the most taboo.
China-Russia communications frequently, Wang Yi met Lavrov again in Kuala Lumpur on July 10 and talked about the strategic dialogue of the head of state. The two emphasized that in the century of change, China-Russia is steadily far away. Russian satellite agency analyzed, four days and two sessions, China-Russia to strengthen cooperation, jointly against external pressure.
The SCO Foreign Ministers 'Meeting opened on the 15th. Wang Yi announced that the summit would be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, with leaders from more than 20 countries attending. Russia supports multilateralism and avoids Western containment. The rotating presidency of China will hold a series of activities from July 4, 2024 to September 1, 2025 and reach consensus.
Lavrov's trip is like confirming the status of relations. Only in the midst of global turmoil can there be long-term space for stabilizing the circle of friends. After the West drew a circle and North Korea intervened, it was easy to drag China down. Russia made a timely statement and removed the label trap. China sits at the main table, SCO is a multilateral platform, and discusses Uzbekistan, North Korea and Iran at the same time.
Putin's diplomacy is grasped with both hands, the battlefield is advanced, and the diplomacy is balanced. Russia needs China's cooperation and support under the multilateral framework, while Iran and North Korea give ammunition, but can't give international space. The bottom line between China and Russia is sensitive, and the principle of non-alignment must be observed. Putin understands that transparency among friends is not alone.
Trump's tariff ultimatum hits, the pendulum swings in Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Trump, the man, turned his face faster than the book. On July 14, the White House he threw a 50-day announcement as NATO secretary: Russia has no peace deal in 50 days, the United States imposes 100% tariffs on Russia, and additional tariffs on buying Russian oil countries. White House officials explain that the secondary is a combined penalty, can not be avoided. Trump's counter, through NATO to Ukrainian patriot system, heavy weapons came a few days, money from Europe.
A few days ago, he said that he had a pleasant phone call with Putin, but it was useless. Now he is not satisfied. Xinhua News Agency reported that this changed from a bilateral war to a European issue, and the United States did not pay for it. Russia has a headache, and all countries doing business with Russia are shaking. Trump takes a time bomb, and Putin has to deal with diplomatic balance, otherwise the world will be isolated. Russia responded, and the US intensified tension.
Putin's team assessed that tariffs impacted the economy, but there was support from India and other countries. Ukraine welcomed aid, Kiev's street weapons were unloaded, air defense upgraded. But the 50-day deadline was tight, Russian Urals, who made concessions first? Trump settled from 24-hour to 100-day ceasefire, now 50 days, a large variable. The media said it was dangerous to the United States itself, and Europe could not withstand. Russia responded coldly, Putin continued to fight, sources said they were not afraid of sanctions.
Trump threatened to hit trade partners with 100% tariffs or similar, secondary sanctions. Russian oil shifts to Asia, India and other countries to increase purchases. European energy is expensive, German factories cut output. Trump said that the tariffs are strict, but Putin has North Korean ammunition, Iran drones, is not in a hurry. On July 30, Trump again reduced the deadline to 10 days, on new sanctions.
On August 2, he said he would impose new sanctions on Russia. Russia's economy is resilient, growing by 4.1% last year and turning eastward. Putin is not panicked, the diplomatic line stabilizes multilateral cooperation, and the SCO Summit is completed. Behind Trump's face change, domestic pressure is high and voters are looking forward to an end to the war. Russia understands that the US ticking time bomb must be balanced.
Ukrainian Zelensky Trump stated, but stressed the need for pressure, more sanctions support. Russia’s frontline advanced, Kharkov dropped the ground, Trump’s aid came late. Secondary tariff enforcement was difficult, Putin’s two hands, military pressure, diplomatic talks. To be honest, Trump was cheating, Russia learned to get around.
Russia with new ammunition, pushed 206 square miles in September, the position consolidated. Ukraine counterattack, drone crowd fired, but fire power weaknesses. Trump helped, Europe spent more money. Putin's leadership is stable, and the diplomatic line is not disturbed.
To be honest, this battle did not win quickly, Putin understood that stable multilateral cooperation is key. In the global game, on the synthesis of the backbone, Russia relies on it to breathe. The Tianjin Declaration landed, more cooperation projects, China and Russia in the multilateral framework trade exchanges normally advanced. In the long run, who can withstand, who wins big.