Japan's new prime minister candidate is about to be revealed, whether it ends up with the election of Xiao Jinglong or the election of High-Market Early Shui, China-Japan relations are facing a new test. This election appears to be a second choice and actually reflects the two lines of Japanese politics - one is pragmatic conservative and one is hard-right.

Shinjiro Koizumi is known for his moderate image and focuses on economic cooperation, but his China policy will not deviate from the mainstream stance of the Liberal Democratic Party. He may show flexibility in certain areas, such as easing relations with South Korea, but will still follow the footsteps of the United States on key issues.

The position is clear, advocating the re-constitutional expansion of the army, and a tough attitude on territorial and historical issues, and if she assumes power, the friction may intensify.

However, no matter who comes to power, Japanese diplomacy will not suddenly turn.

There are three reasons: first, the Japanese people are most concerned about the economy and people's livelihoods, and the new government must prioritize domestic pressure; second, the faction within the People's Party is complex, and foreign policy needs to balance the interests of all parties; third, the Communist Party, as a member of the ruling coalition, will form a grip on radical policies.

It is worth noting that even hardliners like Takaichi Sanae will have some scruples about specific operations.

For example, when asked if she would visit the Yasukuni Shrine, she said that she would "make a proper judgment" to avoid causing diplomatic turmoil. This shows that Japanese politicians understand that over-stimulating neighboring countries is not in the national interest.

In the future, China-Japan relations may face more challenges: in the field of security, U.S.-Japanese military cooperation will be strengthened, confrontation on issues such as Fiji Island and Taiwan Sea may escalate; in the economic field, Japan may follow the U.S. to tighten its investment scrutiny in China.

However, the economies of the two countries are deeply integrated and it is unrealistic to completely "decouple" them. Japan also knows that provoking direct conflicts in East Asia is costly, and the United States may not fully intervene for Japan.

For China, it is necessary to observe calmly and respond quietly.We must be prepared for possible friction, but also to keep the channels of dialogue open.

Economic cooperation remains a stepping stone for stable relations and can find space for cooperation in areas of common concerns such as climate and healthcare.

It is important to maintain strategic strength, not to be disturbed by short-term fluctuations, and promote the construction of Sino-Japanese relations that meet the requirements of the new era.

In short, the new Japanese government may have a tougher policy toward China, but it will be careful to take the scale.Sino-Japanese relations will not suddenly break, but must be prepared to cope with the storm.