Only a day before the upcoming US government "closure", the two-party negotiations in Congress at the last minute still declared a breakup, and if no variables occur, the U.S. federal government will formally shut down from zero on October 1 local time.

At a crucial moment, both Democracy and Republicans began to extricate and blame each other, while Democrats insisted on linking health insurance benefits to policy requirements, while Republicans refused to compromise and asked Congress to grant unconditional approval for funds to operate for the government. U.S. Vice President Wences criticized the Democratic party¡¯s threat behavior and said that he would rather choose the government to ¡°shut down¡± than agree to provide free medical benefits to illegal immigrants.

U.S. Vice-President Watson looks at China

Unlike the previous ¡°closure crisis¡±, the White House Administration and Budget Bureau (OMB) issued a memorandum instructing agencies to prepare for ¡°cuts¡± rather than simply ¡°pay off¡±, which is seen as a means of pressuring the executive department on Congress. According to the bill, once the U.S. government ¡°closure¡± becomes a reality, not only will the daily service of the people be affected, but government agencies will see massive ¡°permanent cuts¡±.

"The probability of closure is increasing.

Gold prices rise.

On the 29th local time, U.S. President Trump and Vance met at the White House with Senate Majority Leader John Thuan, House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. The talks achieved little, and the two sides still have obvious differences on key issues. Al Weaver, a senior U.S. political journalist, said: "As these leaders leave the White House empty-handed, the probability of a shutdown actually occurring is getting higher and higher."

Schumer said after the meeting that they had a ¡°honest and direct discussion¡± with Trump, and hinted that the president was ¡°for the first time aware of the seriousness of the crisis.¡±Wans said after the meeting, ¡°We are taking the step toward the government shutdown because the Democrats will not do the right thing.I hope they can change their minds, but we can only wait for Wans to criticize the Democrats for using the ¡°shutdown¡± threatening to force the Republicans to make concessions: ¡°You can¡¯t take a gun pointing to the head of the American people and say: Unless we¡¯re fully accountable, we¡¯ll shut down your government.¡±Wans said that some of the Democratic policy proposals have also received Trump¡¯s leadership, but the Republicans are not willing to ¡°render free medical benefits to illegal immigrants.¡±

¡ø On September 25th, Trump signed an executive order at the White House, and Vance (left) watched the picture according to vision china

Under the influence of risk aversion, the price of gold in the U.S. market broke through $3,800/oz in one fell swoop on September 29th, and once broke through the $3,860/oz mark in the early morning of the next day, and then pulled back slightly. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have risen by 45%. Deutsche Bank's analysis report pointed out that high U.S. government debt, persistent inflation, and countries' doubts about the status of the U.S. dollar as the world's main reserve currency are all fundamental factors supporting the long-term strength of gold prices. The imminent "shutdown" of the U.S. government has become the catalyst to set off the latest round of gains.

At present, the difference between the Republican parties in * lies in whether to guarantee the Medicaid program initiated during the Obama era. The proposal proposed by the Democratic Party is to extend the funding of the federal government until October 31, with policy conditions, including an increase of about $1 trillion to Medicaid programs, a permanent extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies, and restrictions on the president's authority to intervene in congressional approval of funds. Democrats believe that it is meaningless to extend funding unless the health care problem is solved. The Republican Party insisted on a "clean" resolution. They proposed to extend the funding maintenance time until November 21st, without any policy clauses.

Really different this time?

Government employees face layoffs crisis

The US government¡¯s ¡°shutdown¡± means that all ¡°unnecessary¡± functions will cease, but the basic services to protect lives and property will continue. During the shutdown, about hundreds of thousands of ¡°unnecessary¡± federal employees will have compulsory unpaid leave, while ¡°necessary¡± employees (such as transportation site security inspectors, air controls, border patrols, active military personnel, etc.) must continue to work unpaid until federal funding is restored.

On September 29, members of the National Guard patrolled near the U.S. Congress Building.

U.S. government-owned museums, national parks, monuments, etc. may be closed or services may be limited (such as toilets closed, garbage piled up, etc.). Security and air traffic control at the airport will continue, but staff shortages and flight delays may be encountered. Mandatory expenditures such as social protection, pensions, and medical insurance will continue to be paid out, but manual services such as processing new applications and address changes may be interrupted or delayed. Loan approvals for the Federal Housing Administration and the Small Business Administration may be suspended. As the Bureau of Labor Statistics will also be forced to close, the release of some key economic data reports (such as the employment report and inflation report) may be delayed, which may affect market judgment and the Federal Reserve's decisions.

However, unlike before, this time the ¡°closure crisis¡± instead became a ¡°stress test¡± for the U.S. government¡¯s cuts, with many federal government employees this time not only facing the state of ¡°stopping pay waiting to send money¡± but more likely to be cut as a whole. The White House Administration and Budget Office (OMB) has notified federal agencies that they are ready to maintain basic services with the least number of people. The department wrote in its memo to the agencies: ¡°We still hope that the Democratic Party will not trigger the cuts, but have asked the agency to prepare relevant measures, and any person who does not meet the priorities designated by the president will face permanent job cuts.¡±

Previously, the longest shutdown in U.S. history occurred between 2018 and 2019, when approximately 340,000 federal government employees faced compulsory unpaid leave, and the number of affected employees is expected to be no less than this figure. According to statistics released last month by the U.S. Labour Thinking Agency Partnership for Public Service, 200,000 federal employees have been threatened with departure since 2025 and are called for ¡°voluntary departure¡± by higher departments in various forms. (Red Star News previously: The Trump administration is in crisis, and more than 100,000 federal employees are ¡°departure¡± in fear, and the departure compensation is expected to reach $14.8 billion).

Red Star reporter, Global Times

Edited by Guo

Review by Feng Shui