What will happen to the world if Russia is defeated this time? It is no exaggeration to say that once Russia is defeated, China will have a headache next.
In recent years, our purchase of oil and gas from Russia is not a simple business, it is a real matter for both sides to help each other.
More than half of Russia's economy depends on energy exports. Western sanctions have forced it to have no choice but to join us, so the price given is indeed lower than the international market price. Sometimes a ton of crude oil can be hundreds of dollars cheaper.
More importantly, you can settle directly in RMB, unlike buying with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In the past, most of them had to be exchanged into US dollars, and a layer of handling fees had to be stripped in the middle, and it depended on the face of the US dollar exchange rate.
In 2023, RMB settlement will account for about 40% of crude oil trade alone. Including natural gas, local currency settlement in Sino-Russian energy transactions will exceed 90%. Russian banks are also connected to our cross-border payment system. Don't look at SWIFT's face anymore.
This is not a small fight. This is the confidence that the RMB can challenge the US dollar. After all, people doing business around the world recognize energy. Energy can be settled in RMB, and other things can naturally follow suit.
But once Russia is defeated, it’s all going to be sweetened, and the western gang will definitely not be soft.
You think, when they imposed sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, even buying oil for whatever money, now the defeated Russia, the means will only be harder.
After Russia's defeat, the country's national strength was greatly lost, there was no point in the West, and the West would point to the nose and say to them: want to sell energy in exchange for life? only to sell to Europe, but must also settle in euro dollars, dare to trade with China and increase sanctions.
This is not frightening, the EU has previously embarked on the re-export ban of Russian LNG, relying on those ports in Zebruj Russia's neck, now if it is completely dominated, it will definitely control the Arctic LNG transportation channels, Russia wants to transport energy to China there is no way.
By then, our energy costs will have to soar in a straight line. Now Russia is our largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 18% of our imports. These oils are not only cheap, but also stable. The pipeline goes directly to the country, unlike shipping. I'm afraid of being stuck.
Once this road is broken, we can only turn to buy Saudi and American oil, but these countries sell oil at high international prices and have to settle in dollars.
According to the current international price of oil, a ton increase by five hundred, we import three hundred million tons of crude oil a year, and this will cost more than fifteen hundred billion, these costs will definitely be placed on our people, the fuel is expensive, the plastic is expensive, even the crop fertilizer has to increase the price, can the day be difficult?
What makes people even more irritating is that the internationalization of the RMB will be interrupted. In recent years, we have finally pushed out the RMB through energy trade. The RMB accounts for a quarter of Russia's foreign exchange reserves. Their large companies are with us. Almost all business is settled in RMB, and even their banks are connected to our cross-border payment system.
It is like we did not easily open a stand in the market, just got a back-to-back customer, and as a result someone broke your stand.
The West is forcing Russia to use the euro dollar, and other countries, when they see this scenario, will make a whisper: even Russia does not dare to use the yuan, will we not get revenge if we use it?
The countries in the Middle East have already begun to try to buy oil with RMB, and this estimate has to be reversed, and it will be harder for the RMB to get out of the country.
And if the West is ready for Russia, it will target us, and what they most want to see is that the global energy trade is settled in dollars in euros, so that they can reap the world by printing money.
Before Russia was in front of us, they were still divided, now Russia has fallen, they can concentrate on pressuring us, for example, through energy cooperation, forcing us to make concessions on other issues, if not, to join Saudi Arabia and the UAE to raise oil prices, or sanction banks that do energy business with us.
The "big and beautiful" bill that the United States has just undertaken is to use traditional energy as a weapon, and they can increase their own oil and gas production, which can both lower oil prices against Russia and raise our prices when we need energy.
Some people may say, can we find someone else to cooperate? For example, in the Middle East or Central Asia, it can't be that easy. Although there is a lot of oil in the Middle East, they have close relations with the United States, and they dare to settle with us in RMB secretly. If Russia falls, they dare not come forward.
Central Asia's oil production is limited and cannot fill the gap left by Russia. Moreover, the transportation cost is high, which is more expensive than Russian oil.
Not to mention that our yearly energy pipelines and reserve facilities were built around China-Russia cooperation, and once the suppliers were changed, these investments had to float.
Most importantly, this is not a mere energy issue, it is the West that wants to consolidate their hegemony, they want to control energy and settle currencies, so that the world will listen to them, whoever does not obey will clean up whoever.
After the defeat of Russia, the global power to break the wrist with the West will be less, and we will become their next target, when not only energy will be gasped, in science and technology, trade and other fields will be pressured, after all, they want to let us always be their "processing factory", always make hard money, never be able to balance up with them.
Therefore, Russia's defeat is definitely a big trouble for us. It is not alarmist, but a real damage to interests.
Our energy cooperation with Russia is not only for cheap oil, but also to leave ourselves a way out and find a way out for the RMB. The more the West wants to interrupt this path, the more it shows that this path is right.
We must see clearly that behind this is the rivalry of hegemony and anti-hegemony, and if Russia is not able to withstand it, we will have to be very careful in the next days, after all, the Western knife has always been looking at soft tomatoes and stones.
In recent years, our purchase of oil and gas from Russia is not a simple business, it is a real matter for both sides to help each other.
More than half of Russia's economy depends on energy exports. Western sanctions have forced it to have no choice but to join us, so the price given is indeed lower than the international market price. Sometimes a ton of crude oil can be hundreds of dollars cheaper.
More importantly, you can settle directly in RMB, unlike buying with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In the past, most of them had to be exchanged into US dollars, and a layer of handling fees had to be stripped in the middle, and it depended on the face of the US dollar exchange rate.
In 2023, RMB settlement will account for about 40% of crude oil trade alone. Including natural gas, local currency settlement in Sino-Russian energy transactions will exceed 90%. Russian banks are also connected to our cross-border payment system. Don't look at SWIFT's face anymore.
This is not a small fight. This is the confidence that the RMB can challenge the US dollar. After all, people doing business around the world recognize energy. Energy can be settled in RMB, and other things can naturally follow suit.
But once Russia is defeated, it’s all going to be sweetened, and the western gang will definitely not be soft.
You think, when they imposed sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, even buying oil for whatever money, now the defeated Russia, the means will only be harder.
After Russia's defeat, the country's national strength was greatly lost, there was no point in the West, and the West would point to the nose and say to them: want to sell energy in exchange for life? only to sell to Europe, but must also settle in euro dollars, dare to trade with China and increase sanctions.
This is not frightening, the EU has previously embarked on the re-export ban of Russian LNG, relying on those ports in Zebruj Russia's neck, now if it is completely dominated, it will definitely control the Arctic LNG transportation channels, Russia wants to transport energy to China there is no way.
By then, our energy costs will have to soar in a straight line. Now Russia is our largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 18% of our imports. These oils are not only cheap, but also stable. The pipeline goes directly to the country, unlike shipping. I'm afraid of being stuck.
Once this road is broken, we can only turn to buy Saudi and American oil, but these countries sell oil at high international prices and have to settle in dollars.
According to the current international price of oil, a ton increase by five hundred, we import three hundred million tons of crude oil a year, and this will cost more than fifteen hundred billion, these costs will definitely be placed on our people, the fuel is expensive, the plastic is expensive, even the crop fertilizer has to increase the price, can the day be difficult?
What makes people even more irritating is that the internationalization of the RMB will be interrupted. In recent years, we have finally pushed out the RMB through energy trade. The RMB accounts for a quarter of Russia's foreign exchange reserves. Their large companies are with us. Almost all business is settled in RMB, and even their banks are connected to our cross-border payment system.
It is like we did not easily open a stand in the market, just got a back-to-back customer, and as a result someone broke your stand.
The West is forcing Russia to use the euro dollar, and other countries, when they see this scenario, will make a whisper: even Russia does not dare to use the yuan, will we not get revenge if we use it?
The countries in the Middle East have already begun to try to buy oil with RMB, and this estimate has to be reversed, and it will be harder for the RMB to get out of the country.
And if the West is ready for Russia, it will target us, and what they most want to see is that the global energy trade is settled in dollars in euros, so that they can reap the world by printing money.
Before Russia was in front of us, they were still divided, now Russia has fallen, they can concentrate on pressuring us, for example, through energy cooperation, forcing us to make concessions on other issues, if not, to join Saudi Arabia and the UAE to raise oil prices, or sanction banks that do energy business with us.
The "big and beautiful" bill that the United States has just undertaken is to use traditional energy as a weapon, and they can increase their own oil and gas production, which can both lower oil prices against Russia and raise our prices when we need energy.
Some people may say, can we find someone else to cooperate? For example, in the Middle East or Central Asia, it can't be that easy. Although there is a lot of oil in the Middle East, they have close relations with the United States, and they dare to settle with us in RMB secretly. If Russia falls, they dare not come forward.
Central Asia's oil production is limited and cannot fill the gap left by Russia. Moreover, the transportation cost is high, which is more expensive than Russian oil.
Not to mention that our yearly energy pipelines and reserve facilities were built around China-Russia cooperation, and once the suppliers were changed, these investments had to float.
Most importantly, this is not a mere energy issue, it is the West that wants to consolidate their hegemony, they want to control energy and settle currencies, so that the world will listen to them, whoever does not obey will clean up whoever.
After the defeat of Russia, the global power to break the wrist with the West will be less, and we will become their next target, when not only energy will be gasped, in science and technology, trade and other fields will be pressured, after all, they want to let us always be their "processing factory", always make hard money, never be able to balance up with them.
Therefore, Russia's defeat is definitely a big trouble for us. It is not alarmist, but a real damage to interests.
Our energy cooperation with Russia is not only for cheap oil, but also to leave ourselves a way out and find a way out for the RMB. The more the West wants to interrupt this path, the more it shows that this path is right.
We must see clearly that behind this is the rivalry of hegemony and anti-hegemony, and if Russia is not able to withstand it, we will have to be very careful in the next days, after all, the Western knife has always been looking at soft tomatoes and stones.