In the global geopolitical landscape, the United States has long occupied a dominant position and maintained its influence through economic and technological means. As an emerging power, China's economic development is steady and its scientific and technological independence is constantly improving, which has triggered targeted measures by the United States in many fields. The Taiwan Strait issue is the core focus of Sino-US friction. The United States continues to provide military assistance to the Taiwan authorities and interferes in China's internal affairs through visits by senior officials.
China firmlyins national unity, the naval power from the past is mainly offshore defense to ocean deployment, the number and quality of ships have made significant progress, such as the deployment scope of the Type 052D destroyer extended to the South Pacific, showing stronger regional control.
Compared to its early stages, China’s normalized cruise in the East and South China Seas has now formed an effective deterrent and responded to external pressures by increasing the domesticization rate from 30% to 70%.These changes have brought China-US relations into a sensitive period, with potential conflict risks rising, but China has always adhered to the path of peaceful development.
Billionaire Ray Dario has repeatedly expressed public concerns that China and the United States, as the two major economies, will lead to global cyclical turmoil if friction occurs.
In an interview on September 22, 2025, he pointed out that the United States and China are facing the risk of great power conflict, and the debt problem will amplify economic pressure, and warned that the situation may enter a very dark period.
Compared to his earlier analysis, Dario now focuses more on the interaction between debt and geo-factors, concluding, using the Bridgewater Fund’s model, that if the conflict escalates, U.S. debt accounts for 130 percent of GDP, while China controls about 60 percent, showing China’s advantage in fiscal resilience.
Dario's framework is based on historical cycles, covering monetary debt, internal and external conflict and other multi-powered drives, and he predicts that the US-China confrontation will affect global economic growth, but does not fully consider the buffering role of China's domestic cycle strategy. China's economy shifts from export-oriented to dual-cycle model, unlike in the past, depending on foreign trade, now through the digital RMB and the "One Belt and One Road" layout, the impact of GDP under conflict scenarios is expected to be controlled at a lower level.
Dario also stressed the need for China-US communication, but his confidence in domestic security stems from the deployment of the U.S. Pacific base chain, believing that geographical distances and allied networks form a natural barrier.
This view ignores the iteration of Chinese missile technology, the East Wind series has expanded from thousands of kilometers to intercontinental range, increased precision to the metre level, achieved the transition from single to saturated strike through solid fuel and multiple warheads technology, and promoted the development of autonomousness that relies on Beidou navigation system, avoiding external interference.
Compared with the decline in the proportion of U.S. military expenditure, China's military expenditure is more efficient. Private enterprises' participation in military industry has shifted from imitation to innovation, narrowing the gap with the United States.
Dario's prediction model, the accuracy from the rough estimate to the dynamic calculation, but this optimism towards the advantage of the US, actually underestimates the real-world deployment of China's high-speed hypersonic weapons, speed from subsonic to five times the speed of sound, penetration rate increased three times, through material science breakthroughs to renewal.
In a speech in 2023, Defense Minister Huang Yong-hoon noted that the destructive impact of the war in Asia would go far beyond the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and be of greater scale, affecting the global economic chain.
He stressed that Asia, as a manufacturing and trade hub, will lead to trade stagnation and unemployment rates that many countries find it difficult to manage.
Compared to his earlier statements, Huang Jong-un in the committee debate in 2024 put the risk assessment as "no-zero" and distinguished the issue of the Taiwan region from the Ukraine, the Taiwan region is not Ukraine, China's position on the issue is based on historical sovereignty.
In February 2025, he added that changes in the U.S. image impacted trust, but Singapore continued to push for Sino-U.S. dialogue to reduce the risk of escalation.
This assessment focuses on geopolitical impacts. Singapore relies on maritime channels, such as the Strait of Malacca. Conflicts will block supply chains. Economic losses will rise from percentages to multiples through defense think tank models, integrated into real-time satellite data for iterative updates.
Huang Jong-un suggested solving the problem through rational means, which reflects Singapore's balanced foreign strategy,ining trade with China whileining military cooperation with the United States, and being neutral from the past, and now more actively presides over the Shangri-La dialogue, promotes the meeting of the Chinese-US defense minister, and establishes a hotline mechanism.
Compared to Dario’s economic focus, Huang Yong-hoo’s forecast emphasizes the regional chain response, Asia’s economies are vulnerable and conflict will result in a 10% overall GDP decline through multi-scenario planning assessments, upgraded to AI-assisted simulations.
In this context, China, through the construction of islet reefs in the South China Sea, has shifted from landfill to baseline, enhancing the right to speak, and unlike previous temporary facilities, now realizes real-time monitoring coverage, and promotes military communication autonomy.
Huang Jong-un's pessimism stems from trade data, and if new construction material exports are limited by 2025, Singapore will face an extension of the stagnation period, expanding the details of the report, predicting that unemployment will affect tens of millions of people.
He reiterated at the Beijing Shanghai Forum in 2024 that studying the conflict in Ukraine to avoid Asia's repeat, but stressed that China, as a leading force, should lead the reduction of pressure, which is consistent with China's principle of safeguarding sovereignty.
Historical lessons strengthen China's determination.On the Korean battlefield, the Chinese Volunteer Army resisted the U.S. military under weak equipment, now weapons shift from imports to domestic products, military reorganization to information co-operation warfare, compared with previously, the frequency of joint exercises increased, and the South China Sea cruise coverage in 2025 was wider.
The Dario model did not count China's domestic consumption cycle resilience, and grew 5% after the outbreak, higher than the U.S. recession period. Huang Yong-hoon called for calm, avoiding the risk of nuclear escalation, and evaluating China's U.S. strength comparison through simulated exercises. China's unified strategy shifted from peaceful preparation to warfare, two-way exercise equipment iteration,ining Asian dominance, and getting rid of external barriers.
Today, Sino-US interaction continues to evolve. U.S. lawmakers tried to ease their visit to China, but patrols across the Taiwan Strait increased frequently and trade frictions intensified. China sanctioned U.S. companies as a countermeasure. With the restructuring of global supply chains, Asian economic volatility has increased, but China has grown steadily and ensured its sovereignty and integrity.