Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak this visit to China, speaking especially hard. he in Beijing, as the highest level of the Chinese side, directly hit the chest assured: by the end of this year, Russia will pull the supply of natural gas to China to the fullest, pipeline pressure to the limit is not a matter.
This is not a small move in the international circle. after all, there are only three months left from the end of the year, and this "assurance-style promise" is really not anyone dare to say.
Why is he so confident? what is Russia doing? and is China ready to take on this wave of "all-out" east wind?
Behind "patting your chest" is the story of a pipe
Novak dares to say so full this time, because he has a sign in his hand - the "Siberian Force 1" natural gas pipeline. This pipeline, which leads from the Far East of Russia to the northeast of China, is now the main force of Russia's gas delivery to China. At the end of 2019, it was planned to run to full load by 2025.
In July 2025, Russia sent 42.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China through the pipeline, up 11% compared to that.
Why is it so important to be loaded? this pipe is like the main artery of Russia's energy exports to China, as long as it is smooth and Russian finances can breathe. The European market is now basically cold, can stabilize the demand on the Chinese side, for Moscow is a life-saving thing.
But then again, the pipe has a bottleneck. To put it bluntly, the annual gas transmission volume of 38 billion cubic meters is the upper limit. No matter how "you try your best", that's it. Therefore, Novak's "guarantee" sounds like confidence, but it actually hides some anxiety: everything that can be used must be used.
If one expansion is not enough, then repair more
In the final analysis, the reason why Novak dares to promise to "go all out" at the end of the year is that people have more than one card in their hands. In addition to "Power of Siberia 1", Russia's layout in Sino-Russian energy cooperation has become wider and wider in the past two years.
When Putin visited China at the beginning of the year, three documents were signed, namely, the expansion of pipeline 1, the advancement of the Far East pipeline, and the launch of the "Siberian Force 2" memorandum.
Let's talk about expansion first. Russia is preparing to pressurize the gas station on Pipeline 1. In other words, it wants to build the road wider and make the gas run faster. This matter is also advancing fast, because for Russia, it can't be done if it is not fast. Financial pressure is great, and energy exports are the most reliable source of income at present.
Furthermore, that Far East pipeline, in fact, is not a large size, a year will send a 12 billion cubic meters, but the meaning is not small. The route from Cook Island to the northeast of China, is to find an export to the Russian Far East, and also to China more insurance line. The Russian side is very positive about this project, after all, can drive the development of the remote region, can also stabilize the Chinese market, one stone and two birds.
Adding these lines together, Russia can deliver up to 56 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to China in the future.This is not a small number, for China, it is an additional element of energy security; for Russia, it is an economic lifeline.
If pipeline 1 is the main force now, the Far East line is complementary, then "Siberian Force 2" is Russia's focus for the future. this pipeline 2 plan can send 50 billion cubic meters a year, the Mongolian channel, the goal is directly to the north of China.
This line was originally stuck in Mongolia. Mongolia was initially reluctant to be a transit country for fear of being tied to a Russian chariot. But now the wind has changed, the Mongolian side has obviously let go, and the negotiations have begun to enter a substantive stage. The logic behind it is very realistic: transit fees can make a fortune, and repairing pipelines can also stimulate local employment. In the final analysis, interests speak for themselves.
From the design chart, once the pipeline 2 is built, the total annual gas shipment between China and Russia will exceed 100 billion cubic meters. In terms of the total gas consumption of China in 2024, the Russian family could account for a quarter.
Moreover, natural gas is not white food, it is energy, the back of geopolitics. Russia through the pipeline linked its economic vitality to China, it is proactive to "pick up". China through multiple lines to disperse the risk, to ensure energy imports are not caught in the neck by others.
Three months, see the true chapter
Novak’s “end of the year” is not an empty phrase, but rather a mid-term declaration of a gambling. Russia is betting that the Chinese market is large enough and demand is stable enough; China is focusing on the energy supply is safe and affordable.
But the global energy landscape is unpredictable. The price of liquefied natural gas fluctuates greatly, the situation in the Middle East is unstable, and the sanctions imposed by Europe have left Russia overwhelmed. In this context, the "pipeline cooperation" between China and Russia is particularly important. It is not a simple buying and selling, but more like a "strategic hedging".
From the trend of the past few years, Russia has completely turned its eyes from the west to the east, while China, in the global energy diversification layout, is also putting "pipeline stability" in a more reliable position.
This cooperation is not a question of who depends on whom, but the result of each other's choice. Russia needs markets, China needs energy, each hand in hand, each takes what it needs.
Novak’s visit to China was not an ordinary diplomatic visit, but a key card played by Russia in the geo-game. Three months, a node, and a test. Can China-Russia cooperation go up a level, not only to see how big the air volume, but also to see whether each other can stabilize in the turbulent world.
It is not far from the end of the year, and the answer is soon revealed, and then everyone will know whether this is a genuine word or a scene.