«--[· Preface ·]--»
What kind of signal was sent behind the bombing of the Polish Embassy in Ukraine? What is the reason for Poland's calm behavior?
12 hours of airstrikes broke the calm.
Russia launched a massive air strike on Ukraine lasting more than 12 hours, one of the largest since the outbreak of the war in 2022.
According to Ukrainian President Zelensky, the Russian army dispatched nearly 600 drones and more than 40 missiles in this operation, including 2 "Dagger" hypersonic missiles, targeting Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, Kiev Oblast and Sumy Oblast and other places.
At the start of the airstrikes, Kiev’s air defense warning sounded all night long. Citizens flooded into shelters such as metro stations, underground parking lots and listened to continuous explosions on top of their heads. Russia’s strikes focused on Ukrainian military industrial complexes, military airports and energy infrastructure, trying to undermine the military’s operational capabilities.
According to official Ukrainian statistics, the attack has killed at least four people, wounded more than 80 people, including a child, seriously damaged several residential areas and civilian facilities, and even the leading Ukrainian cardiology medical institute, the Strasbourg Institute, has not survived.
The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that the Russian military used long-range air-based and sea-based precision weapons, as well as attack drones, carried out "high-precision strikes" on Ukrainian military targets, and all pre-set targets were destroyed.
However, for the number of drones and missiles Zelensky said, the Russian side gave different figures, saying that only 41 Ukrainian drones were shot down.
«-[· Bullet hole in the kitchen of the Polish Embassy ·]-»
Just as the Russian-Ukrainian war was on the brink, an unexpected incident complicated the situation: the Polish embassy in Ukraine was bombed.On September 28 local time, Foreign Ministry spokesman Vronsky confirmed that a small-caliber cannon fell on the roof of the Polish consulate, then penetrated the ceiling and fell into the kitchen.
From the scene photos can be seen, the roof of the embassy was blown up in a hole about 2 meters in diameter, and the kitchen was a wreck: the stove was overthrown, there were cracks on the wall, the hanger and the smoking machine fell to the ground, and the ground was full of glass debris and building debris.
Fortunately, there were no people in the kitchen at the time, the accident did not cause any casualties, and the work of the embassy was not substantially affected. The incident sparked a wave of alarm because Poland was a NATO member, and this was the first time since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that the diplomatic facilities of NATO countries were damaged in Russian attacks.
Relations between Poland and Russia were already tense, just two days before the incident, Poland just closed the Russian consulate in Krakow on the basis of "suspicion of involvement in the firing of the Warsaw shopping center", which the Russian side firmly denied.
“The dark flow behind diplomatic statements...”
After the incident, the parties reacted quickly and subtly. The Polish government, despite confirming the fact that the embassy was damaged, was relatively restrained. Foreign Ministry spokesman Vronsky stressed that the accident did not cause significant losses and the embassy would continue to operate normally. Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki also said that Poland would "be calm" and called for a diplomatic solution to the issue.
This low-profile approach is in contrast to the tensions that Poland had previously caused due to the entry of drones into its airspace, while Ukrainian President Zelensky called on NATO to strengthen its support for Ukraine.
He said on social media that the Russian military attack was “a challenge to the entire civilized world” and once again called on NATO to provide more air defense systems and weapons assistance. NATO Secretary-General Luther also spoke to Zelensky for the first time, promising to speed up aid to Ukraine’s air defense systems and launched the “Eastern Guard” mission to strengthen NATO’s eastern wing defense.
However, NATO did not invoke Article 5 (collective defense clause) of the North Atlantic Treaty, but characterized the incident as an "isolated incident." Russia remained silent, neither admitting nor denying the attack on the Polish embassy.
However, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova has previously warned that if NATO countries continue to supply weapons to Ukraine, it could lead to an “uncontrollable escalation” of the situation.
«--[· Chain reaction from drones to missiles ·]--»
The impact of the incident goes far beyond the diplomatic level. Militarily, it exposed vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian air defense system. Although the Ukrainian military claimed to have intercepted 611 air targets, there were still some drones and missile breakthroughs in the defense, causing damage to civilian facilities including the Polish embassy.
To this end, NATO countries have begun to re-evaluate their military aid strategy to Ukraine, and Dutch Defense Minister Breckelmans has even suggested that NATO needs to accelerate the development of anti-drone technology to address this “asymmetric threat.”
Economically, Poland, as an important ally and transit point for Ukraine's goods, changes in its security situation could affect the operation of the Central European airline. Previously, Poland had closed border ports with Belarus due to drone incidents, leading to a large number of Central European airlines stagnating.
Following the attack on the embassy, Poland’s domestic public opinion again called for stronger border controls, which would undoubtedly put new pressure on the already fragile European supply chain.