Dr. Mark Takach of the Hungarian Academy of Military Sciences wrote about the next phase of the Battle of Pokrovsk.
The great and important victory of Ukraine is taking place here.This also means that Pokrovsk will not be occupied by the Russians this year – so they will not be able to cut the links between the two important fortress towns of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk in the short term.
Mark closed the article on September 21, but his prediction was completely accurate, and the Ukrainian military was acting as he predicted in the article.
The general advice on these articles also applies to this: Read carefully
First of all, I’m deeply sorry for the little update. This blog is just my hobby and updates are getting fewer and fewer. I’d like to especially thank my friends who are still supporting the blog financially. I’ll try to keep the level and reduce the amount of writing, but the same way as before.
The last time I the decisive battle of the third phase of the Battle of Pokrovskok was at the end of August. Yes, the intensity of the Battle of Pokrovskok varied, but it has lasted a year. The first phase, or the preparatory phase, was in the early autumn of 2024, when the Russian army surrounded the city from the southeast to the victory of the summer. This phase the Russian army won and successfully approached Pokrovsk from the south, but the Ukrainian army took advantage of the southern terrain of the city and prevented the Russian army from entering the building area on its way.
The second phase of the Battle of Pokrovsk took place at the turn of 2024/2025 and lasted until the end of February 2025. The Russian army tried to surround the entire Pokrovsk-Kostyadinivka-Chasiv Yar triangle from the southwest. During this period, the Russian army continued to advance westward, but at the last moment, the Ukrainian army once again stopped the Russian army's attack by virtue of the last step of terrain advantage. The focus of this phase is the battle for the villages of Udacine and Kotlin. This front has been extended so far ever since. Although it was only an auxiliary direction of the Pokrovsk campaign from February to September 2025, the intensity of the fighting is evident from the fact that the above-mentioned settlement (its remnants) changed hands on average once a month.
The third phase of the Battle of Pokrovsk began in May of the same year, when the Russian army made a breakthrough between Pokrovsk and Kostyanivka, and then turned from there to the west. The final decisive battle of the battle took place at the suburb of Sovolov. This was the final link, whether it could be seized, that determined whether the Russian army could successfully surround the city from the northeast. The Ukrainians won the battle, but even though the force was extremely large, the Russian continued to skillfully mobilize troops and skillfully shift the weight. In the end, the Ukrainians occupied the outpost of Kourichev and basically destroyed it at the end of August. The clue to the story starts here.
By August 25, it was clear that the destruction of the Russian Ministry of Emergency was only a matter of time. At that time, all Russian troops north of Kushtivar had been destroyed, but there was still organized Russian resistance south of the settlement. After the success of the Ministry of Emergency in the north, the Ukrainian army suspended for several days, reorganized forces, and organized coordinated operations between numerous ground forces. Of course, this does not mean that both drones, artillery and air strikes did not continue. In a post on the excellent substack page of Tom Cooper, a fine map shows the astonishing scale of the attack.
However, the effectiveness of Russian airstrikes is likely to be less than ever. Around a small town like Porkovsk, 1500 airstrikes were launched in three weeks, almost equivalent to carpet bombing during the “Defense Operation”. This does not include drone and artillery strikes. Nevertheless, the will of the Ukrainians prevailed on the battlefield – I hope I didn’t make a joke.
Russia’s chain of destruction has fallen back to the bad levels of the spring of 2022, but I think this is unlikely to happen.
The Ukrainians have developed some kind of effective countermeasure. Yes, since there are no universal weapons here either, a sophisticated system of measures is needed, including both passive (camouflage, fortifications, etc) and active (jamming, team air defense, fire counterattack, etc) methods.
In any case, the Ukrainians are ready to continue the offensive at the end of August to maintain their proactivity at the operational level.
Destroy the Suvorov Outstanding Department.
According to scattered publicly available sources, Ukrainian forces entered the defensive zone 2 kilometers west of Toretsk around August 30 or 31. This can be seen from the fact that Ukrainian infantry was shelled here according to Russian reports on September 1. However, this is only a supplementary action to a larger offensive by Ukrainian forces.
Meanwhile, a camp of the 425th “Scala” Squadron occupied the New Economic City and neighboring Nikolayevka. There is currently little information about the operation, and the Ukrainian side has not revealed much, in such an important offensive, which can be understood. And the Russians have nothing to boast about. We can be sure that the Ukrainians have captured a large number of Russian troops in total, according to the war situation so far, which means that the Ukrainians have defeated at least one camp-sized Russian troops here. With this victory, the Ukrainians have brought out the entire Russian army and the Russian troops stationed in which about 3-4 brigades are placed in a very disadvantage. The new economic zone is an important Russian military bridge located on the west bank of the river Kaz
A new legion appeared on the public map, and they attempted to launch a side-wing counterattack and a small-scale independent attack on the Ukrainian army’s identification of the Russian division’s offensive route in order to reclaim the initiative. On September 3, they advanced from Poltavka to Sofivka.
However, this apparently did not disrupt the plans of the Ukrainian army, as the decisive attack on the Kucheriv Yar salient was launched on the same day. As the Russian army was attracted by the Ukrainian army's victory in the New Economic Zone (Novoekonomicheskiy) and their own offensive on Sofiivka, the Ukrainian army found itself in a favorable position. Of course, well-organized firepower preparations also contributed to all this. As a result, the 425th Assault Regiment-another battalion of the 14th National Guard-also took part in the offensive. With the support of the 1st Ukrainian Army, the Ukrainians swept the Russian infantry defending there from the west and reached the village of Boykivka, north of Suvorov. With this offensive, the Ukrainians wiped out the Russian Suvorov salient north of Pokrovsk, which posed a threat to the town, and further worsened the situation of the Russian forces north of the breakthrough area, because although they failed to capture Kazan An important crossing point on the Nitolets River, which was unusable due to its close proximity.
However, the Russian army made a deadly resistance. They increased airstrikes, almost to an unbearable point (see above), and almost continuously attempted infiltration with infantry forces. The latter was a typical feature of the entire Porkovsk front, but unlike the victory of July, the Ukrainians had entered a state of alert. The suffering 155th regiment gathered together, along with another camp of the 425th regiment, and successfully destroyed the Russian military forces infiltrating in the outskirts of Porkovsknan. The Russian army also tried to break the side wing from the successful breakthrough of the Ukrainian army, and some of the soldiers even reached Bilik, but were captured there. Overall, the Ukrainians made huge progress in the past two months against Russian infil
By the end of the first week of September, the Ukrainian army had destroyed the subdivision of Sovolov and reduced the force of the subdivision of Kucherivyar to less than half. On September 9, Hungarian birds attacked two Russian soldiers with hand-held tanks, an event that fully demonstrates the logistical condition of the Russian army there. If a force needed to transport the tank on foot, it would be a considerable problem, even if the subdivision was basically stationed by infantry.
The logistical situation of the Russian army in about one camp of the Koutseriver Highlight Ministry has worsened due to two factors. First, the Ukrainians seem to have mastered the advantage of drones, and the air advantage is not entirely in the hands of the Russian army. Second, the supply of troops can only be resolved through the Kazanitolets River.
The Ukrainians did not rush to attack, but used this advantage to continuously destroy the Russian army with drones and artillery in just a week. According to dispersed public information, the decisive attack by the Ukrainians could begin on September 10. One camp of the 425 attack camp launched an offensive directly from the east from Novosahov, a near-range offensive with Pankivka as a long-range offensive. Another camp of the 425 attack camp launched an offensive from the north to the south with Torecke as a near-range offensive, a long-range offensive with Volodymyrivka as a long-range offensive, and a long-range offensive with Pankivka as a long-range offensive.
There are not many videos of the operation, but we know that Novsakhov was attacked by fierce artillery on the morning of the 10th, and we also know that on the 12th, the Ukrainians had firmly occupied Vladimirivka, and small units of infantry also advanced to Pankivka.
After the victory in Ukraine
According to Ukrainian sources, about 1,000 (conservative estimates) Russian infantry were surrounded. The Russian army-especially the 33rd and 88th infantry divisions (which occupied the terrain along the Kazanitolets River between Boykivka and Toretsk)-certainly did not stand idly by. They tried to hinder the movement of Ukrainian forces and destroyed them with heavy drone and artillery attacks. As a result, a Ukrainian armored vehicle was destroyed 2 kilometers west of Pankivka. Both sides said that drones make operations extremely complicated, and because maneuvers on the battlefield are very difficult, everything has slowed down significantly compared to a year ago.
I think that in just three weeks from the end of August to the beginning of September, the Ukrainians have achieved one of the most important victories since the fall of 2022, and that is not the merit of “magic weapons.”
Of course, the "Hamas" rocket cannon played its role, successfully attacked several Russian military concentration points (i.e. more than eight soldiers were gathered in the same place), and the MiG-29 also repeatedly used joint direct attack ammunition (JDAM) and "hammer" bombs to carry out tasks. However, the key lies in organization. They successfully deployed military-grade artillery (such as "Hamas" rocket guns) and air forces, striking the second-line forces of the Russian military class, namely logistics, artillery, electronic combat division and reinforcement force. These tasks are closely coordinated with the activities of the offensive division. The activities of the offensive division are also coordinated.
The Ukrainians applied what I call the "Mini-Helson" tactic, and combined with the Russian military's own weapons, achieved remarkable results. That is, they used the Russian logistical throat hole, effectively hit there, and successfully applied the weight-focused tactics. Honestly, after the left-handed wrestling intimidated the opponent, they again played the right wrestling, then the heavy left wrestling, and the already shaken opponents were heavily crushed by the left-handed wrestling and the right wrestling, ensuring the victory. Miracles don't exist, but as long as the rules of the industry are followed, they can create miracles.
What should I do next?
Well, this is an important and beautiful victory, and the battle is not over. The trapped Russian army must be eliminated. Except for some terrain being affected, the Russian army has significant military advantages everywhere, and the strategic initiative is also in their hands.
Another serious question is if the number of Ukrainian casualties exceeds a quarter of the Russian army, can the Russian army bear such a defeat? According to the bloody logic of the consumption war, the Russians can still persist in terms of personnel. Of course, this applies to the entire population, but the situation is different if you count the population that can voluntarily recall without mobilization. In addition, the strategic airstrike in Ukraine also seems to be considered a victory. If combined with the Ukrainian army's ability to such brilliant performance, then the statement "Russia won this war" is obviously a naked lie.