Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Russian media has always liked to bring Ukraine's affairs together with the situation in China's Taiwan Strait. Putin also made a statement from time to time, saying that he supported China's handling of the Taiwan Province issue. But in recent years, especially from 2023 to 2025, the tone of Russian media has become more and more straightforward. For example, on June 28, 2023, the Russian Satellite News Agency published a report directly pointing out that if there is a fight in the Taiwan Strait, China may be contained by a multinational alliance, just as the West assisted Ukraine in dealing with Russia. The report also quoted the analysis of Chinese military experts and talked about the "five-level war" model, saying that in the worst case, the Chinese navy had to face saturation attacks and build a strong military industrial system quickly.
The article, entitled “Chinese scientists simulate the full-scale war scene of the Liberation Army Navy against the hypothesis of the “Alliance”, is based on a paper in the journal Chinese Ship Research. The authors of the paper are Chinese experts who divide the potential conflict into five levels. The first level is small-scale marine friction, the second level is limited confrontation, the third level is regional operation, the fourth is large-scale naval warfare, and the fifth level is multinational joint siege.
At Level 5, the simulation shows that a Chinese warship may have to deal with 11 missiles at the same time. The report emphasizes that although there are a large number of Chinese naval vessels, there is still a gap with the United States in ocean-going combat experience and quality. The BBC report in September 2025 also mentioned that the Chinese navy still has a way to go to catch up with the United States, mainly on aircraft carriers and submarines. The Russian media used this to say something, which means that as soon as China starts, it will have to face alliances such as the United States, Japan and Australia, and the military pressure is great.
But the Russian media so hype, not only for China, but for fear of its own small calculator. On February 24, 2022, after Russia initiated action on Ukraine, the United Nations General Assembly soon passed a resolution condemned, 141 countries supported, only 5 countries opposed. This makes Russia internationally quite isolated. In turn, the Taiwan Sea issue is not the same, the United Nations resolution 2758 of 1971 is clearly the Chinese territory, sovereign affairs and foreigners can not get involved. China has been pushing for peace talks, this position is stable. Russian media love to bind two things together, maybe want to pull China down the water, share the pressure. In August 2025, Fox military channel has an analysis article, Russian media does this, is indirectly asking China to help with Western sanctions.
The military siege sounds serious, but the Russian media prefer to emphasize the economy and finance there is really deadly. The report says that financial sanctions are harder than gunfire, such as kicking China out of the SWIFT system, where international trade settlement is directly paralyzed. Foreign exchange reserves are frozen, factories are stalled, the stock market crash. After Russia itself was kicked out of the SWIFT in 2022, the ruble fell, and the energy export shell, can only rely on the RMB and ruble currency transactions.
An article in May 2025 pointed out that China’s foreign exchange reserves exceeded $3 trillion and depended entirely on the US dollar system, if it freezed and the export economy bleed. The European Council’s September 2024 report also warned that the West could take a hand on China, cut off SWIFT access, and freeze overseas assets. Think of Russia’s opening battle, the Russian central bank’s more than 30 billion assets were frozen, and how sad it would be that day.
This is not an empty hole, the U.S. media in December 2024, China in Uzbekistan several months after the outbreak, organized a cross-departmental group to study the impact of Western sanctions and prepare for the war for the Taiwan Sea. VOA 2023 October article said that Chinese experts are very alert to Russia's encounters, especially the SWIFT case. The Free Times June 2025 think tank analysis, directly said that if Beijing moves Taiwan, the West is likely to expel Chinese banks from SWIFT.
In March 2025, the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce rejected 15 U.S. companies, mostly drone suppliers to the Pentagon. As a result of the U.S. drone industry delay, China tightened uranium exports, international prices jumped from $1400 / ton to $38,000, rising above $2,600. When the London Stock Exchange competed, it was a mess. Consumer side, Tesla sold only more than 30,000 units in China in February 2025, compared with 49.2%. Musk supported Trump strongly against China, customers directly switched home brands.
In June 2025, the New York Times that China's two aircraft carriers were the first to double into the Pacific and show off the sea capabilities, but the US-Japanese and Australian joint military exercises also followed. Russia's satellite news agency in September 2024 that the Chinese-Russian navy joint exercises, co-working, and responding to choosing countries. Can the alliance be stable? Asian economies have differentiated against Russia, and the BBC said in March 2022 that Japan follows South Korea, but Southeast Asian countries hesitate.
Russia wants to borrow Taiwan from China, but China goes its own way. Military risks are there, but economic and financial siege is more hidden and more lasting. Western sanctions teach Russia lessons, so that China is arranged in advance. In the future, the siege of the alliance does not necessarily come true, because the cost is high and self-harm is great. China's domestic demand is strong, technology is independent, more opportunities. Russia carries sanctions, Chinese learns experience, but more attention is paid to peaceful rise.