U.S. federal government funds will be exhausted at midnight on September 30 local time, and the government is once again in a stagnant crisis.

On June 29, local time, U.S. President Donald Trump met in the White House with Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Republican leader John Thun, House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Democratic leader Hashim Jeffries to discuss measures to prevent the federal government from stopping. According to U.S. media reports, congressional two party leaders have told the media after meeting Trump that there are huge differences between the two sides and that negotiations have made little progress.

The two sides are still divided, and the federal government is approaching a halt.

Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer said there were huge differences between the two parties in health care after meeting with Trump, and Democrats advocated the extension of the Parity Health Act subsidies to expire at the end of this year, and whether the government would eventually fall into a shutdown was decided by the Republican Party. Democratic House minority leader Jeffries said the two sides remained divided. The Democratic Party will not support the provisional allocation bill drafted by the Republican Party. House Speaker Johnson accused Schumer and Jeffries of ¡°refusing to recognize the basic facts¡± ¡° kidnapping¡± and ¡°hacking¡± funding procedures, and asked Democratic Senators to support the provisional allocation bill that has been passed by the House, and if the government shutdown, the Democratic Party would be responsible for the consequences.

Earlier, the House of Representatives narrowly passed the temporary appropriation bill drafted by the Republican Party in an attempt to maintain the operating funds of the federal government until late November, but then the Senate failed to pass the bill. At present, the two parties in the United States are once again deadlocked on funding. Democrats seek negotiations, while Republicans hope to continue to promote the previous version of the bill.

According to U.S. media reports, after Trump met with congressional leaders on 29 September, the Senate is expected to re-vot on 30 September.If Congress fails to pass the provisional allocation bill, the federal government will shut down at zero a.m. on 1 October local time, and hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be forced to take unpaid leave.

Many factors make the US government "shutting down" a common drama

Since 1980, the United States has been stuck in stagnation 14 times.

Central news reporter Liu Xiaobo:We can look at the U.S. governmental ¡°closure¡± crisis that often occurs in several ways.

First of all, institutional constraints make budget deadlock inevitable. Different from the parliamentary system, the executive and legislative branches of the United States are highly separated. The president and the majority party in Congress often belong to different camps. In addition, the two houses are separated, and the negotiation space is artificially compressed. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that this system makes it easier for budget negotiations to reach deadlock in a politically polarized environment.

Secondly, party polarization and "marginal strategy" are getting worse and worse. In recent years, Democrats and Republicans have used the budget as a political bargaining chip. In the House of Representatives, tough members often take the opportunity to put pressure on the addition of ideological clauses in the budget, which leads to the constant creation of the risk of "closing the door".

Third, the US society¡¯s crackdown has deepened the fiscal dispute. Liberals emphasize public services and social security, while conservatives demand cuts in deficits and cuts in spending. National Public Radio comments that this fundamental disagreement makes budget negotiations not only a fiscal issue, but also an ideological confrontation.

The Washington Post has criticized Republicans for taking ¡°political gambling¡± on health insurance subsidies, while the Political Journal notes that House Speaker Johnson has tried to mitigate health insurance disputes but has failed to resolve public doubts.

In terms of public opinion in the United States, several polls show that most Americans see the government's "shutdown" as an irresponsible political act, using power stagnation to manipulate public institutions.

The wave of ¡°closed doors¡± is both a side effect of institutional decentralization and a by-product of the two-party struggle. It highlights the lack of U.S. political polarization and compromise capability, and also reflects people¡¯s tiredness of political roles. More importantly, this repeated fiscal impasse and ¡°closed doors¡± risk not only delay U.S. own governance and public services, but also once again bring uncertainty to the global market.

What impact will the US federal government's "shutdown" have?

In the United States, although the government shutdown is not a new drama, this year's shutdown risk is different from previous years, and the behind-the-scenes logic is more complicated. Once the temporary appropriation bill cannot be passed before midnight on September 30th, what impact will the "shutdown" of the US federal government have?

Once the federal government is closed, about 800,000 federal employees will be forced on unpaid leave and contractors will not be able to pay their bills on time.Many museums, national parks and monuments may be closed or shorten their opening hours.Some windows at the U.S. Department of Consulates and the Immigration Office will slow down and even close, and the processing time for passports, green cards, visas and other documents will be extended.While mandatory expenses such as social security payments will still be issued, related labor services may be stuck.

For low-income families, the blow will come sooner. Food stamps for millions of pregnant women and children will be affected, housing assistance and energy subsidies will also be delayed due to the shortage of funds, the federal government's support for preschool education and school lunches may be forced to be advanced by local governments, and the financial pressure of states and counties will increase sharply.

In addition, traffic, travel, medical, public health, etc. will be affected. the shortage of personnel will not only cause flight delays, frequent queues, and new route approval, pilot training and license issuance will also stop; In addition, the daily statistical updates of the disease control center, the Food and Drug Administration, the speed of drug approval, etc. will be slowed, government medical insurance and other agencies' telephone service, case appeals and other services will be difficult to access.

The broader economic cost should also be ignored.Analyses generally believe that government shutdowns could cause the U.S. economy to lose about $7 billion a week, federal employee pay delays would affect consumer spending, and market anxieties about policy uncertainty would increase volatility.If the "stop" is delayed and intertwined with issues such as debt ceilings, fiscal deficits, it could also lead to increased U.S. government borrowing costs.

With the intensification of partisan polarization, the government's "shutdown" has almost become an annual drama in American politics. However, the attitude of the Trump administration this time also complicates the situation. Usually, the "shutdown" of the government means that a large number of federal employees are temporarily taken unpaid leave, and after the funds are restored, they can return to work directly.But the Trump administration¡¯s demand for a possible ¡°permanent cuts¡± breaks past political conspiracy, making the ¡°stop¡± likely to be no longer just a reversible fiscal impasse, but a potential institutional damage, making the consequences of this fiscal crackdown even more difficult to predict.