If there are any surprises in the Asia-Pacific situation in 2025, then North Korea's operation is definitely one. Just at the juncture when the United States and South Korea are focusing on "joint pressure", Kim Jong-un suddenly spoke in Pyongyang and said two sentences, which directly made the strategic arrangement that the United States and South Korea have been painstakingly managing for several months completely ruined.
This year, North Korea officially set the tone. Kim Jong-un's speech didn't have many words, but he gave up his illusions about South Korea and insisted on possessing nuclear weapons. As soon as this word came out, his dream of making milk in the United States was directly shattered.
That is, North Korea initially informed the bottom line, as long as you do not accept that I have nuclear weapons, then don't talk, say it clearly, North Korea does not want to dialogue, but only does not accept the "first to give up nuclear, after cooperation" script, you want to talk, you have to change a script.
North Korea is no longer “waiting for people to talk,” but has written the rules of the game into the law
This time, North Korea is serious. Instead of courtesy Chinese, it engraves its gesture into its genes. This should be put aside in the past. Maybe some people think it's a fight of words, but this time it's different.
Because it’s like tearing down the political buffer zone between the DPRK for decades directly, and still keeping a verbal promise of “one day reunification” right now to tell you directly: don’t think, we’re not a family.
The next second sentence is more direct: "Nuclear weapons are the prerequisite for our national security." This sentence is clearer than the previous sentence. The translation is: My nuclear weapons are life-saving, not conditional. You can talk about it if you accept that I already have nuclear weapons. If you don't accept it, don't talk about it.
These two sentences seem simple, but in fact they are tantamount to smashing the idea of "promoting abandonment through talk" between the United States and South Korea. In the past, the United States and South Korea always thought about "exchanging cooperation for abandonment of nuclear weapons". Now North Korea is dead. If you want to cooperate, admit that I have nuclear weapons first, but don't you? Then go home and rest.
This time, North Korea is not an emotional outbreak, but a fundamental change in its foreign strategic positioning. It is no longer a small role waiting for assistance and testing the other side's bottom line, but an active party that defines its position and dares to set conditions.
The United States and South Korea "plan cannot keep up with changes", and both Trump and the South Korean government have fallen into a passive position
After this wave of operation out, the most embarrassing is not the United States and South Korea, especially Trump, the former president is heating up for the 2026 election, originally intended to resume "personal diplomacy" with North Korea, resulting in Kim Jong-un's two words out, equivalent to pouring him a bowl of cold water in advance.
Trump these days on China-Russia, although the surface landscape, but in the end there is no result, North Korea this time is equal to directly tell you: "that set don't come again, we don't eat this set," which makes Trump want to rely on North Korea "diplomatic achievements", almost turned into a hope.
More difficult is that the United States does not actually have a loose tone, the United States still insists that "denuclearization" is the only goal, and there is a contradiction: the president wants to talk, want to make some progress; but the national policy does not allow you to admit that North Korea has nuclear weapons, then what do you want to talk about?
On this side of South Korea it would be harder to do, and Lee in Ming was still thinking of everyone talking well, and now only America can be locked up.
US and South Korea originally wanted to do what "guided North Korea to return to negotiations", now in turn was set by North Korea rules, you want to talk, then come on my terms, you do not accept?
China has long warned that this game cannot be broken by forcing it
China's attitude, in fact, has long been there, not impartial or compelling anyone, starting in 2023, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly reiterated that the peninsula affairs should be resolved by the relevant parties of the peninsula themselves, simply, it is your business, you speak for yourself, China does not intervene, but does not help anyone to pressure.
This sounds like “being out of the matter”, but in fact it is a very clear judgment, because China very early saw that North Korea will not easily take the old path of “talk and give up” and continue to pressure against it, rather than respect the reality, so that all parties find a balance that can be accepted by each other.
The whole world understands that the bottom line of North Korea's current foreign policy is "security priority", and that they have completely lost confidence in the model of "abandon the nuclear promise", which is not emotionalized, but a real lesson.
Many people have ignored what happened to Ukraine at the time? the initiative to renounce nuclear weapons, and the result is a total passivity in security, which North Korea must see in the eyes, remember in the heart, for them, nuclear weapons are not tools to threaten others, but to protect themselves.
North Korea put it bluntly this year: "Without nuclear weapons, small countries can only wait to be arranged." You say they are extreme or ruthless, but this is their idea. If you want to understand their behavior, you have to understand how they view the world.
So, this time they wrote the "having nuclear" into the external position, not for provocation, but to clear the red line, you want to talk, then let us first figure out the basic consensus, do not accept this, then do not waste time.
The new normal on the peninsula has arrived, and the initiative is no longer in the hands of the United States.
These two sentences of North Korea, to put it bluntly, are one sentence: I am not an object you can control, nor a role you can define. The current situation on the peninsula is no longer the old script of "the United States and South Korea have the final say, and North Korea passively follows it", but "North Korea sets the premise, and you have to admit it if you want to talk".
From a tactical point of view, North Korea’s speech not only blocked U.S. and South Korean policy exports, but also raised the threshold of negotiations to a new height, and you must first acknowledge that I have nuclear weapons; you must cooperate and accept that I am not under your control, this setting, directly pushing the U.S. and South Korea to a position where it is “difficult to retreat.”
On the contrary, China's role is actually more stable, not expressive, not side-by-side, but it is very clear: dialogue can be, provided that you must respect the reality, otherwise whoever talks is useless.
North Korea is now not without talking, but only accepting talks within the framework it sets, this situation, the United States and South Korea will either adapt, or continue to confront, but it can be sure that the past kind of external pressure "forcing North Korea to make concessions" has completely gone.
The game is no longer the old rules, who can adapt to the new rhythm is the real player.
This situation, on the surface, North Korea said two words, North Korea came out of a new space, began to explore the outside, the new rules of dialogue have been laid on the table, who can accept the reality, who can find a way out in the new pattern; who still holds the past set of unreleased, who can only turn on the ground.
North Korea is not suddenly tough, but to be prepared for a long time, only until the United States and South Korea reveal the number of old roads, and go back and forth, this is not an excitement, but a manifestation of strategic maturity.
Maybe, but not the former way of "you make conditions, I come to cooperate", now North Korea, not waiting for you to talk, but to tell you: I write the rules, you want to talk, come according to this.
The situation on the peninsula has entered a new phase, not more dangerous, but more clear, who can adapt to this new rhythm is the real player in this game.