Preliminary
South Korean Foreign Minister Zhao显 18 SeptemberLeaving Beijing, he just reiterated to the Chinese side that " Respect for a Chinese position."。
Just four days later, he issued a statement in new york with the foreign ministers of the United States and Japan, expressing The Taiwan issueMaking irresponsible remarks, 23 September, spokesperson of Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Two sentencesdetermination of such behavior.
Why did South Korea suddenly change its position? What two sentences did China respond to?
Campaign promises change in three months.
September 22nd, New York, USA.
When the three foreign ministers of the United States and South Korea sat together and issued the joint statement on Taiwan, the distance from South Korea's foreign minister Zhao Zhao's departure from Beijing had just passed. 96 hours。
The statement is worded "tactfully", but it touches China's most sensitive nerves. The three countries claimed that " Around TaiwanWe are concerned about the increasing frequency of destabilizing activities.”
The word is very "civilized", but the meaning is not clear - openly touching China's actions on the Taiwan issue.
Even more surprising, it is 3 days agoZhao Zhao was also at Beijing's Fishing Taiwan State Hotel and spoke with Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
At that meeting, Zhao clearly stated: "The Korean Respect for a Chinese position.He looked forward to strengthening communication and coordination with China to jointly safeguard regional peace and stability. "
Foreign Minister Wang Yi also emphasized that China and South Korea are "unmovable neighbors", and both sides should properly deal with sensitive issues.
But only 72 hours later, Zhao Xian changed his mind in new york. This speed makes people think of Lee Jae-myungMy "performance".
March 2024Lee Jae-myung, who was the party leader at that time, was still soliciting votes.
At that time, he stood on the podium, pointed to the nose of then-President Yin Xiyue and scolded: " Taiwan StraitWhat does it have to do with us? Why should we provoke China? "
This answer, at the time, won a lot of favor on the Chinese network.
June 2025Lee was sworn in as president.
On the same afternoon, the Chinese side sent a letter.The letter mentioned, hoping that the two sides can learn from the lessons, and Korean relationsReturn to track.
This message reflects China’s high expectations for improving relations.
But only More than 3 months.After that, Li Zaiming gave China a solid "blow in the head".
On September 23, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiangkun responded quickly and harshly.
The first sentence is directly characterized: "The United States, Japan and South Korea are TaiwanOn the issue of China's maritime affairs, the Chinese side has said three-way, four-way, interfering in China's internal affairs, denigrating China. strongly dissatisfied.Strongly opposed.”
The second sentence warns: “The countries concerned must abide by The Chinese Principle.We should stop conniving at "Taiwan independence" separatist activities in any form and not send wrong signals to the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces. "
Two sentences, concise and concise, but full of weight. This is not only an expression of attitude, but also a declaration of the bottom line-on the Taiwan Province issue, China does not accept any form of temptation and ambiguity.
It only took Lee Jae-myung more than three months to go from "not intervening in the Taiwan Strait" to "making a public statement". This change came so quickly that people have to ask: What happened to him?
The economy relies on China but relies on the United States.
Why did Lee make such a choice? is, after all, the old issue that has plagued South Korea for decades.
On one side is China, a big buyer. Last year, South Korean tradeMore than Thirty billionThis means that South Korea sells more to China every year than it sells to the United States and Japan combined.
But now, the situation is changing: South Korea’s trade with China has turned from a surplus to a deficit. About $20 billion。 Behind this figure is South Korea's pillar industries such as semiconductors and auto parts, which are deeply dependent on the Chinese market.
Relationships get stuck, the days of Korean enterprises are bad.Samsung, SK Healyx these large enterprises, which dare not care about the Chinese market?
On the other hand, South Korea’s security is entirely dependent on the U.S. as a “paraply.” by 2024North Korea has done. Twelve timesMissile tests. every time, it makes South Korea nervous.
The Korean-American alliance has existed for decades, and South Korea’s military command is still influenced by the United States.
Li is in the middle, right for difficult. his calculation may be: by participating in the "Joint Statement" this way, can both meet the requirements of the United States and not "excessively stimulate" China.
After all, the wording in the statement is relatively vague, and it does not directly mention "supporting Taiwan independence" or "sending troops to protect Taiwan". But this abacus is wrong.
History has repeatedly proved that in The Taiwan issueIn fact, any form of "edge ball" will pay a price.
2016 yearAt the time, South Korea first stated that it would not be deployed, and then suddenly signed a contract with the United States to deploy its anti-missile system in South Korea.
And the result? Sino-ROK relations have fallen to freezing point, and South Korea's economy has been seriously injured. Almost all Lotte Group's supermarkets in China have been closed, and South Korea's tourism industry has suffered heavy losses.
Look at the lessons of other countries. PhilippinesFollowing the United States on the South China Sea issue, exports to China decline in 2024 8%。 LithuanianTaiwan issue, neutral trade relations decline, economic losses exceed 1 billion euros。
These cases are all telling Li Zaiming a truth: the most taboo thing for small countries in the game of big countries is to be opportunistic on core interests.
But Lee obviously did not take the lesson seriously. Or, he thought he could be more "smart" than his predecessors.
China's aircraft carrier technology breakthrough causes US anxiety
U.S. pressure on South Korea is not without reason.Just before Li's "face changed" in Ming, the Chinese navy passed the news of shaking the world.
In the picture, J-35fighter aircraft from Fujian shipThe deck cries out and a beautiful arc is drawn between the blue and white clouds. The 15THeavy fighters and The Air Force 600Early warning aircraft also took off one after another.
This marks China becoming the second country in the world to master and apply Electromagnetic ejection technology of aircraft carriercountry.
Further to the Americans, the Fukushima ship's electromagnetic launch system is more stable than the U.S. Ford-class aircraft carrier's similar system.To know, the Ford-class launch system from service to now, has been criticized by the U.S. Congress "too many problems" and "reliability is troubling".
China's technology application appears to be more mature. It's not just a technological lead. It means that the Chinese navy is steadily moving towards deep blue and has the The Second Island ChainAnd even the ability to project forces further offshore.
U.S. military expert Ben Lewis said frankly: "The success of the Fujian ship is the first in the history of the Chinese navy A very important milestone.。"
High-ranking U.S. military officials also acknowledged that the so-called “targeted operations” of the U.S. military in the Indo-Pacific region will become more intense as the Chinese military’s weapons and equipment technology levels rise. increasing difficulties。
The German media analyzed it more bluntly: the narrowing of the military gap between China and the United States has enabled China to have considerable defense and counter-measure capabilities at its doorstep. The possibility that the United States wants to suppress China militarily is declining significantly.
This is why the time is so sensitive after the video of the Fukushima ship was released. Less than 24 hoursU.S. Secretary of State Rubio summoned South Korean Foreign Minister to New York, and the intention was no longer apparent – the United States was in a hurry.
In the context of a relative decline in military deterrence, the United States attempts to put pressure on China by pulling allies and building a political circle, and South Korea is precisely part of this circle.
But the U.S. made a mistake this time. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jianquan’s response seemed complacent and firm.
This downturn, arising from the increasingly powerful comprehensive national force, is more arising from the solid support provided by advanced military forces including the Fujian ship.
Difficult choices for small country diplomacy
The breakthrough of the Fujian ship has made the United States deeply aware that the military advantage at the gate of China is disappearing.So how far can Lee's "two-sided approach" go?
Look at the other countries and the answer is clear. JapaneseAlso participated in the statement, but the expression of Foreign Minister岩屋毅 was the most vague, afraid to speak to death.
The ASEANIn the Taiwan issue, who dares to follow America blindly?ins a strategic balance. European UnionThe major countries, Germany and France, have also made it clear that "the Taiwan Province issue is China's internal affair".
These countries do not attach importance to their relations with the United States. But they understand that on some issues, sobriety must be kept. And Li Zaiming, on the other hand, made a small calculation on the issue that should not be speculated least.
What if China-Korea relations continue to deteriorate?Economically, South Korean exports to China may decrease 15-20%, affecting GDP by about 0.5-0.8 ppt。
On the safe side, North Korea will have a hard time and missile tests will be more frequent. Politically, Lee’s support rate will fall due to economic damage, and the ruling base will be shaken.
History has repeatedly proved that China’s bottom line cannot be tested on core interests.Is the lesson from the Thad event not deep enough?Australia will follow the US counter-China in 2020, the economy will be crashed, and the relationship will begin to repair only after the change of government in 2022.
There is an old saying: Don't look at what a man says, look at what he does. Lee Jae-myung said, " Practical DiplomacyIn fact, the least speculative issue – the Taiwan issue – has been dealt with.
This is not pragmatism, this is speculation. Under the new situation that China's strength continues to increase, this kind of speculation is doomed to be bloody.
conclusion
Lee in Ming's "pragmatic diplomacy" in the face of US pressure Incredibly hit.He thinks that using the “Joint Statement” method can both satisfy the United States and not anger China, precisely underestimating China’s bottom line on core interests.
With the continued strengthening of China, This is different from the past"It has become an irreversible reality.The practice of trying to rub the edge on issues of core interests in China is destined to hit the bloodstream.
True pragmatic diplomacy is to recognize the historical trend and make strategic choices in line with the long-term interests of the country.