This article was published exclusively on Tencent News
Recently, the debate on the election of the candidate for the chairman of the Japanese Self-Democratic Party was held, and the headquarters of the Self-Democratic Party in永田町 again hanged. “Change the Democratic Party.”The banner, a party primary election that determined Japan's political direction, opened the corner in the sense of crisis.
Japan's Liberal Democratic Party was forced to start the re-election process of its leader, The sudden election stems from the party's historic defeat in two consecutive parliamentary electionsFor the first time since its founding in 1955, the self-government party has lost a majority in both houses of the House of Commons at the same time, and the leadership authority of Chairman Shiloh Broom has collapsed.
After the defeat of the Senate election, the forces within the Democratic Party rapidly gathered, and in just three days to collect the signatures of more than one-third of parliamentarians to ask for the resignation of Shelburne, far faster than when he repressed Mahatma Gandhi in the same year. faced with irreversible pressure within the party, Shelburne announced on September 7 resignation from the position of the President of the Democratic Party, ending less than a year of ruling career.
The departure of Shikoku is far from a simple replacement of leaders, but a concentrated reflection of profound changes in Japanese politics.。 At the same time that the Liberal Democratic Party was caught in infighting, the participating parties of the far-right parties suddenly sprung up in the election, and the number of seats soared from 2 to 15. The xenophobic slogan of "Japanese first" and the accurate communication on social media have enabled this political party, which has only been established for five years, to successfully incite the traditional pattern of Japanese politics.
Partisan divisions: the struggle of the Democratic Party factions and the power vacuum
With the fall of Shikoku, the self-government party's power struggle for power was officially unveiled. High-market早苗,小泉进次郎,河野太郎, Lin Feng and others became popular candidates for the new president. while former prime minister Shikoku was even seen as a possible return of the "black horse". Behind this, reflect the Japanese self-government party faction struggle and the trouble of Shikoku.
The party's meeting turned into a division hearing, a parliamentary plea meeting extended to the dark, where more than 60 people called for the resignation of Shapiro Shapiro. Self-government investigation chairman Shapiro Shapiro, self-government investigation chairman Shapiro Shapiro Shapiro and other core figures gave their resignation, and Shapiro Shapiro fell into an isolated situation. Although in the form, the self-government party's valve has been dissolved due to the black gold scandal, but in reality they have only replaced the "non-delivery" machete to continue to operate. The former Shapiro Shapiro, the former Shapiro Shapiro and the main army of Shapiro quickly gathered after the defeat of the Senate and
He has long been in a “non-mainstream” position within the Democratic Party and is known as “the opposition within the party”. Though last year he stood out with the “innocence” image when the “black gold scandal” of the Democratic Party spread, his foundation within the party has always been weak. After taking office, the efforts of the Abbey line have failed to meet traditional conservatives’ expectations of narrowing the gap between the poor and the rich, but also annoyed the right-wing forces that hoped to continue the “Abbey line”. The "anti-black money" reform he advocated was struggling under the restraint of conservative forces in the party, and even he himself was exposed to a scandal of providing huge funding to the branches of "unrecognized" candidates。
2. The Rise of the Far Right: Participating Parties and the Populist Wave of "Japanese First"
During Japan’s political turmoil, far-right forces have found a growing foothold.The party called out the slogan “Japanese priority” in the Senate election, opposing globalization, advocating tax cuts, restricting foreign investment, and showing a strong revisionist stance on historical issues.
The rise path of participating parties is quite similar to that of far-right parties in Europe in recent years.The party successfully used social media to amplify people's "anxiety" and "marginalization" feelings and attract a large number of voters who were dissatisfied with the status quo. During the election period, there were as many as 1.19 million posts about foreigners on Japanese social media, ranking first over traditional issues such as prices and annuities. Although most of the xenophobic claims put forward by the party lack factual basis, they have successfully hit the pain points of the people. For example, the so-called statement that "foreigners threaten public security" is contrary to the data-in the past 30 years, the number of foreigners in Japan has increased from 1.3 million to 3.7 million, but the number of criminal offences committed by foreigners has dropped from 14,000 in 2005 to more than 9,700 in 2024.
The rise of the party has begun to influence the policy agenda. In response to its claim to “restrict the welfare of foreigners”, the government announced the establishment of a “room for promoting an orderly society with foreigners”.
Electoral Flow: Political Differentiation between Younger Generation and Elderly Groups
Japanese politics is undergoing a profound intergenerational transformation. Once, the self-government party relied on industry groups to maintain the long-term rule, and now these "iron tickets" have greatly diminished.According to the Japanese PMI survey, 57.5% of Japanese people aged 20 to 30 have no specific support for political parties, one-third of whom are illegally employed, low wages and unstable work. Their desire to change the status quo makes it the most attractive target for populism. The Japan Economic News poll shows, Among young people aged 18-29 years, 29% were willing to vote for the National Democratic Party, 20% were willing to vote for the political party, significantly higher than the proportion of support for the Democratic Party.At the same time, during the Cabinet period, the support rate for the self-government party has longined at a high level of 50-60%.
Unlike young voters who are susceptible to populist arguments, although older voters are more concerned about social security and economic stability, in recent years the price boom and the cuts in social welfare have also caused this part of the group to firmly support the Democratic Party. The basis of the traditional support of the Democratic Party is gradually collapsing. Its basic plate originally resembled two layers of cake: the bottom layer is the traditional conservatives dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, and the top layer is the neoliberal right wing. Now the top layer is starting to run to the party, the bottom layer is turning to the National Democratic Party, which advocates "reform + equally rich". This differentiation makes the Democratic Party have to fight simultaneously on several battlegrounds, to retain the el
Political Spectrum Shift to the Right: The Positioning of the Self-Democratic Party in the Right Wave
The overall shift to the right of the Japanese political spectrum has become an indisputable fact. The self-government party lost 13 seats, but the entire right-wing conservative camp force has significantly increased: "the middle-right" National Democratic Party has increased 13 seats; the far-right party has increased 13 seats; and the right-wing conservative parties such as the Japanese Reform Party, the Conservative Party have also increased.
In this context, the Liberal Democratic Party seems "less right" in comparison. The Self-Democratic Party has long denounced itself as the mainstream of Japan's conservative politics, but faced with the challenge of more right-wing forces such as the party, this one has been severely impacted.。 When the participating parties put forward more extreme xenophobic policies and revisionist historical views, the traditional conservative stance of the Liberal Democratic Party pales in comparison. Some radical conservative voters even think that "the Liberal Democratic Party can no longer be called a conservative party". Jiro Mizushima, a professor of political science at Chiba University, pointed out: "The two major forces, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Constitutional Democratic Party, are not highly accepted by young and middle-aged voters. In the middle-aged population, the “two major political parties” are no longer present."This shows that Japan's political landscape is undergoing restructuring, and the rise of far-right forces is a prominent manifestation of this change.
The right shift of the political spectrum is also reflected in the focus of policy discussions. The party pushed the “foreigners policy” to the core of public opinion, forcing the parties to express their views. while the Democratic Party, under the weakness of Congress, may have to make political transactions with the far-right forces, further pushing the overall policy to the right.
5. Future Outlook: The Liberal Democratic Party's Survival Strategy and the Japanese Political Trend
In the face of domestic diplomacy, the Democratic Party has stood at a crossroads. Is it continuing to approach the right wing to compete for conservative voters attracted by the Democratic Party, or is it holding on to the center-right stance and trying to maintain a broader support base?
On the one hand, right-wing candidates such as High Market Morning Sun have a strong momentum in the competition for party chairmen.She made it clear that she would continue the "Abe route" and won the support of the former Abe members involved in the "black money" scandal. On the other hand, relatively gentle faces such as Ho Chi Minh were also active, trying to attract middle voters.However, the future of the Liberal Democratic Party depends not only on party choices, but also on socio-economic fundamentals. The structural problems faced by Japan, such as declining birthrate and economic stagnation, cannot be solved by changing leaders or right-leaning policies. Problems such as the continued rise in prices, the depreciation of the yen, and the sharp rise in the cost of living have become increasingly serious, and the government's behavior of increasing the defense budget (from 5.4 trillion yen in 2022 to 8.7 trillion yen in 2025) has caused public dissatisfaction.
In the context that neither of the House of Representatives has obtained more than half the seats, whoever takes over as Chairman of the Democratic Party must compromise with the opposition party or seek a new co-government partner. This power structure will force the Democratic Party to adopt a more flexible strategy and may also drive it back to a more pragmatic center-right line for some time in the future. Japan is likely to see another "merry-go-round" prime minister replacementNevertheless, the crows of Yongda町 are still as loud as usual—they have seen the split and reorganization of the People’s Party too many times.But this time the difference is that the shadow of the right-wing ex-President Ratzinger is about to cover the bottom of the whole political world.The future of Japanese politics depends not only on Yongda町’s power game, but also on the choice the average people make between life pressures and political expectations.
Hello, readers and friends of Tencent News! I am a scholar who is concerned about relations between major powers and security in the Asia-Pacific region. I have a doctorate in international relations from Renmin University of China. I have studied and worked in New Zealand for many years. Welcome to continue to pay attention to my works and bring you a comprehensive and in-depth interpretation!