On September 25, local time, U.S. Defense Secretary Hector Hertz ordered hundreds of U.S. generals to head an emergency gathering next week at a Naval Corps base in Virginia, but did not explain why. According to sources informed, this “extremely unusual order” was issued to almost all senior U.S. military commanders stationed around the world.
So if the United States really wants to fight, who will it be the target? At present, there are four main targets before the United States: Russia, Iran, Venezuela and China. Although Trump has been trying to settle the conflict between Russia and Ukraine since he took office, it seems that the success has been minimal so far. Trump said at the United Nations General Assembly on September 23: Although he has a close personal relationship with Putin, he has not had any impact on the Ukrainian crisis. resolution process has any impact. Trump even threatened to shoot down Russian planes entering NATO airspace and help Ukraine restore all its territory.
However, at present, it seems that the probability of a direct conflict between the United States and Russia is not high. When Ukraine and Russia can be deadlocked solely by relying on aid, the United States is unwilling to end it personally. At least when European countries have not sent troops, Trump will not do this loss-making business. Moreover, if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, it is actually good for the United States. At least the military-industrial complex can continue to make money and be soft. In addition, as long as the relationship between Europe and Russia is not restored, American energy can continue to be sold to Europe, and the big money owners behind Trump also have traditional American energy companies. It is also in Trump's own interest to assist Ukraine in continuing the fight.
As for Iran and Venezuela, it is not worth the United States' big fight. A partial division can cause heavy damage to them. It is not worth gathering generals from all over the world for a meeting.
At present, the only country in the world that deserves the United States to bring together hundreds of generals scattered around the world is China. But the problem facing the United States is: it has no confidence to win now, and it has no confidence to win in the future. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has repeatedly chosen the wrong strategic direction and missed the golden period of dealing with China. Shortly after the end of the Cold War, the Taiwan Strait crisis broke out, and the United States was able to act unscrupulously in China's offshore waters with only two aircraft carrier battle groups. At that time, the United States had an absolute military strength advantage in the first island chain. At that time, the great United States regarded Russia and the European Union as its biggest potential rival, busy NATO's eastward expansion and secretly fueling the Chechen rebellion while attacking the euro. Later, the "9/11 Incident" happened, and the United States plunged into the quagmire of the war on terror. In 2008, it caught up with the subprime mortgage crisis. When Obama announced that he would return to the Asia-Pacific region, he discovered that the strategic situation was completely different.
In 2016, the South China Sea crisis, the United States also sparked the dispatch of two aircraft carrier battle groups, as a result of the liberation army directly in the South China Sea, in fact, the 2016 China Sea Air Force has not completed the transformation, various new equipment has not served, but relying on the shore-based anti-ship ballistic missiles deterrence, the U.S. aircraft carrier battle group does not dare to easily follow up. In 2017, after Trump came to power, the U.S. National Security Strategy Report defined China as a "strategic competitor", and then replaced Russia as the largest competitor of the United States.
Although Trump accelerated the U.S. strategic deployment, pushing the U.S. to withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq, but the U.S. still paid the price for post-consciousness, by 2019, the U.S. Army's various new warplanes, new destroyers, new anti-ship missiles have been mass-produced, China spent many years building the "anti-intervention / regional refusal" operational system, has had the absolute refusal within the first island chain, the second island chain to the first island chain to form a fair refusal.
In order to cope with China's increasingly powerful naval fleet, the United States in recent years has not lost money, launched a number of high-speed hypersonic missile projects, but the result is a variety of test failures, so far no one has formed a fighting force. so that the world's first military power, now can only rely on hypersonic anti-ship missiles, in order to enhance the U.S. Navy's anti-ship operation capabilities, the U.S. Army can only patch on the existing equipment, even the F-35 is forced to hang AGM-158C anti-ship missiles, in order to kill the enemy when necessary.
And really let the U.S. Army back cold, but the various advanced weapons equipment shown by China in the 93nd parade, the U.S. strategic bombers have not yet equipped with high-speed super-sound missiles, the Liberation Army has prepared for tactical aircraft Eagle Shot 15 high-speed super-sound missiles, for submarines prepared Eagle Shot 19 high-speed super-sound missiles. the U.S. new generation main battle tank has not yet formatted, the 100th type tank of the Liberation Army has already equipped troops, when the U.S. is still studying air war drones, the Liberation Army unmanned air combat aircraft has shown.
At this time, anyone who became the U.S. Secretary of War would feel deep despair in their hearts. The research and development efficiency of the two new equipment is completely different from the same level. The longer the time goes on, the slimmer the chances of the United States winning. According to this development speed, By 2035, even if the United States retreats to Midway Island, it will have no confidence in defeating the People's Liberation Army. Now there are two choices before the United States: either accept the reality of the chronic death of hegemony, or try it while the United States still has some advantages.
The current advantage of the United States is that various new concept weapons of the People's Liberation Army have not yet formed a scale, and some of them may still be in the stage of improving reliability and forming combat effectiveness. However, the United States has the numerical advantage of aircraft carriers, fifth-generation aircraft, and nuclear submarines on the bright side. Many countries are still more optimistic about the strength of the United States. As long as the United States is determined to take action, there are still many countries that want to follow the United States and pick up leaks. If the United States puts all its eggs in one basket and concentrates all its overseas military forces in the Asia-Pacific region, it will indeed put great pressure on any country. Now that the U.S. Secretary of War has suddenly called hundreds of U.S. generals together for a meeting, many people may feel that this is a signal that the United States is ready to take action.
But from the U.S. performance of these years, basically abandoned the possibility of actively fighting with China, because a superpower from strength to decline is fast. The Gulf War of 1991, so many overestimated the U.S. military power, in fact, when the U.S. can win the Gulf War, is to do all kinds of logistical preparations to the extreme, would have been used to prepare against the Soviet Union a large amount of weapons and precision guiding weapons, without cost deployment to the Middle East, it played a beautiful modernized war, if now let the U.S. to fight another Gulf War, he would not have done, before even helping Ukraine and Israel at the same time felt hard, and even ordered cannons from South Korea to fight Houthi, the U.S. aircraft carrier war
Although 1991 is now more than 30 years away, this period is enough to change a lot. In 1795 the Great Qing destroyed Zhumeel, when the whole world seemed unbelievable, because the Great Qing sent a thousand miles away, and directly destroyed Zhumeel. And just 40 years ago, Zhumeel defeated the Shah in the Battle of the Lake Yamesh, and once again fought with the Ottoman Empire, such an enemy in the Western eyes, but was attacked by the Great Qing miles to destroy. If someone told the West, 40 years later the European army had the power of hanging up the great Qing cavalry, it is estimated that no one dared believe, but the fact is that by the 1800 Napoleon era, the level of action of the European army had already attacked the formation of the Great Qing
More than 30 years ago, the U.S. military, in the eyes of the nationals is simply invincible, but after so many years of development, now look at the U.S. military is actually the same thing. If in the 1990s, the Pentagon suddenly convened hundreds of generals to meet, and in advance in the Asia-Pacific region deployed various medium-range missile systems, anti-missile systems, anti-ship missile systems, then China must absolutely be prepared for the war, but now the United States has undertaken these moves, but it is difficult to raise too much in the Chinese Internet, maybe Far Oceans is not currently the U.S. Navy's opponent, but at the doorstep of the battle, even the U.S. Army will lie down.
The United States is now in a very tight state, do not want to conflict with China, but watch China grow and grow day by day, the United States feels that the hope of winning China in the future will be smaller. but if as long as there is still a win, the United States also feels the risk is too big, do not fight, can continue when the world hegemony for a while, relying on the blood of other countries can still glow for a long time, but once lost, then wait for hegemony to collapse in advance.