Voters cast their votes at the polling station

On September 28, local time, nearly 3.3 millionand MoldaviaVoters went to the polls and elected 101 members of parliament.

This parliamentary election is regarded as the most important and risky election in the country's history, and its result will determine the future direction of Moldova, which is sandwiched between Europe and Russia, and even affect the geostrategic pattern of Europe.

Why has it attracted much attention?

The parliament of Moldova has a one-chamber system with a total of 101 seats and a four-year term of office.

The last parliamentary election was held in July 2021. The Action and Solidarity Party led by current President Sandu won an absolute majority and gained the right to form a separate cabinet.

More than 20 political parties or coalitions and independent candidates fought for 101 seats in the parliament.The fight for the seats was mainly fought between pro-European actions and the Unity Party and the pro-Russian opposition coalition "Patriot Front".

With a land area of less than 34,000 square kilometers and a permanent population of only about 2.4 million, it is known as one of the poorest countries in continental Europe. However, the current parliamentary election in Moldova has been closely watched by many parties, including the European Union, Russia and even Ukraine, and is considered extremely rare.

The public opinion noted that this is due to Moldova¡¯s special geographical location and the current context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

"As a former Soviet republic, Moldova's position is very unique and important." Tian Dewen, a researcher at the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social SciencesSay to .

The country's geostrategic location is considered important-it is located between Romania and Ukraine, surrounded by Ukraine in the east, south and north, and bordered by Romania in the west. As a landlocked buffer country, Moldova cuts off the borders between the Russia-Ukraine war zone and the European Union and NATO.

Some commentators pointed out that since its independence from the Soviet Union, Moldova has been vacillating between pro-European and pro-Russian lines, and this election has pushed the dispute between the two lines to a peak moment. Because the pro-European and pro-Russian political parties are evenly matched at present, the former is even considered to lose its majority position in parliament, which will have a huge impact on the pro-European policy.

Last month, the leaders of France, Germany and Poland joined forces to Kiev to support Moldova¡¯s aspiration to join the European Union and warn Russia not to interfere in the election.

"Europe cannot lose Moldova." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shouted at the United Nations General Assembly a few days ago. In Kiev's eyes, Belarus and Georgia have fallen to Russia and can no longer lose Moldova, otherwise the anti-Russian "barrier" will lack important plates.

According to Tadeusz, the election was not entirely a pro-Russian pro-European struggle, but a choice between stability and unrest.

There is a special administrative division within Moldova, the Left Bank of the Dnieper (¡°Left¡±), adjacent to Ukraine, which occupies about a third of its territory and is controlled by a pro-Russian government with a separatist stance.

¡°The ¡®Left¡¯ region is regarded as a Russian territory but has not been recognized by the international community.The region has a lot of pro-Russian people, while Moldova¡¯s mainland is basically turned to Romania, that is, on the side of the European Union,¡± said Tadeusz Devan.

He believes that the main highlight of this election is whether the so-called pro-Russian political parties will come to power. If the Action and Solidarity Party continues to govern as a majority party, the situation will be relatively stable and controllable. If pro-Russian or centrist forces come to power, there may be unrest in Moldova. Because the "German Left" issue may be intensified, it will trigger potential territorial disputes between Russia and Moldova, and may even affect the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In this context, both the EU and Russia are very concerned about the future political trend of Moldova.

The battle of life and death.

On the electoral map, the confrontation pattern between the ruling and opposition parties has taken shape.

For the ruling party, this election was a tough battle, and was also referred to by Sandu as a "living and dying battle."

In the last parliamentary election in 2021, the Action and Solidarity Party won an overwhelming victory, thus forming a one-party government. In last year's presidential election, Sandu succeeded in * with 55.3% of the votes.

The two successive victories made the throne of the president and the prime minister held by the Action and Unity Party, consolidating the status of this pro-European government.

However, after entering this election cycle, the support rate of the ruling party has dropped significantly.

The latest polls showed that it was first overtaken by the "Patriot Front" and lost its leading advantage.The support rate for both is currently above 30%, and the majority of seats in the Action and Solidarity Party are considered dangerous.

Public opinion believes that the main shortcomings of the ruling party lie in the economy.The country was originally weak on the economic basis, and in recent years has been affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and it has been sharply aggravated.

Due to rising energy prices such as natural gas, inflation has surged to 40 percent and economic growth has slowed to zero.

Meanwhile, due to its proximity to Ukraine (only a few hours drive from Odessa), Moldova receives more Ukrainian refugees per capita than other European countries, putting a heavy pressure on its healthcare systems, public services and infrastructure.

There have been comments that people are dissatisfied with economic difficulties and the failure of the government to deliver on reform promises, as well as growing skepticism about Mr. Sandu¡¯s push to join the EU. Many voters fear that a closer connection with the EU could impact Moldova¡¯s agriculture-driven economy.

The disadvantages of the ruling party are precisely an opportunity for the opposition party to seek to overthrow.

The "Patriotic Front" believes that cutting off relations with Russia drags down Moldova's economic development and should maintain policy flexibility like Slovakia. They promised to provide low-priced natural gas, raise pensions, and appease voters' dissatisfaction with economic turmoil and slow reform.

Tada said that for this parliamentary election, the people of Moldova focus on peace and stability and economic livelihoods. Currently, the economic situation in Moldova is worrisome and the population loss is severe. The popularity of pro-Russian political parties has risen or is pragmatically related to its policy claims. In addition, in the opinion of some people, the ruling party came to power with the support of the West, and foreign policy is difficult to independently independent.

However, the ruling party blamed the poor situation on Russian intervention and has recently been busy with emergency measures.

As polling day approaches, the Moroccan authorities launched hundreds of raids on networks allegedly supported by Russia, and successively cracked down on pro-Russian political parties.

The Central Election Commission of the Republic of Moldova has banned two minor parties belonging to the ¡°Patriot Front¡± ¨C the ¡°Great Moldova Party¡± and the ¡°Heart of Moldova¡± ¨C from voting on the basis of alleged use of illegal funds and receiving foreign aid.

However, some analysts pointed out that it is too early to say that the defeat of the ruling party has been decided, and the huge group of expatriates is expected to have a decisive impact on the election results.

Overseas voters¡¯ intentions are usually not reflected in poll data, but they generally tend to support pro-European parties.

In last year's presidential runoff, more than 82% of 327,000 overseas voters supported Sandu to help him *.

In addition, the poll also shows that about one-third of voters have not yet made a decision and have left questions about the outcome of the vote.

What impact does it bring?

Analysts point out that once the ruling party loses parliamentary majority, it must rule through the formation of a coalition government, which means the need to seek coalition partners in the opposition camp, even including cooperation with pro-Russian political parties, the way to form a cabinet or not.

It is worth noting that after the 2019 parliamentary elections, as no political party gained an absolute majority of seats, the Cabinet process tripled and failed in succession. According to the Moor Constitution, if two Cabinet failed, the President has the right to dissolve the Parliament and announce an early general election. As a result, the parliamentary elections originally scheduled for 2023, were delayed until 2021.

Not only are the prospects for the establishment of a cabinet unclear, but even the successful establishment of a cabinet, the prospects for action and governing the unification of the party are also difficult to say smooth.

¡°The ruling party needs to seek the support of other parties to pass key legislation, which will increase the likelihood of a political impasse,¡± said Alexander Martininov, a researcher at the Center for European Political Studies.

Jian Junbo, Director of China-EU Relations Research Center of Fudan UniversityHe added that if pro-Russian forces come to power, it may have a series of political and security impacts.

Politically, Moldova¡¯s ¡°engagement¡± with the EU¡¯s eastern expansion may be hindered.

As a potential EU candidate, Moldova has signed agreements with the European Union, the former needs political, judicial and other reforms, the latter needs to provide political, economic and other funding.

If a pro-Russian party comes to power, it may be more difficult for Moldova to advance reforms in political, judicial and other fields, and accession to the alliance will become more complicated and will also constitute obstacles to the EU¡¯s east-east expansion process.

At the security level, Moldova, neighboring Romania and even Europe will face new security risks and challenges if the "German Left" region follows Crimea's example and announces a referendum to merge into Russia, or makes the military ties between the region and Russia closer.

"Moldova will become a new area of strategic competition between Russia and the EU, and geopolitical competition will further intensify."

Why are the elections in this small country in Southeast Europe, the EU, Russia, and Ukraine watching closely?

Column editor: Yang Li Group Text editor: Yang Li Group Source: Xinhua Agency

Source: The Liberation Daily