Preliminary
Without Israel, Ukraine will not last long.
At the UN General Assembly, Ukrainian President Zelensky actively disclosed a message claiming that the "Patriot" system sent by Israel to Kiev has been operating in Ukraine for a month.
In addition, he said that he was talking with US President Trump about an arms sales agreement of up to $90 billion. Soon, two more "Patriot" systems will be sent to Ukraine.
Why did Zelensky disclose the bottom? Obviously to prove to allies that as long as they are willing to send aid, Ukraine can continue to fight. At the same time, the news of Israel's aid to Ukraine has also brought considerable changes to the situation.
Given the current situation in the Middle East, Israel has sent the Patriot system to Ukraine, indicating that the Netanyahu administration is no longer obsessed with Moscow's attitude, Zelensky has gained Israeli support, and the military ties between the two sides are feared to be gradually closer.
Israel's sudden "change of heart" is behind a shocking turning point in the Middle East chess game
Israel's provision of Patriot systems to Ukraine was almost unthinkable in the past. You know, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Israel has been carefully walking a tightrope between the United States and Russia, not wanting to offend the United States, but also worried about angering Russia and affecting its military operations in Syria. But this summer, Israel made a sudden U-turn: not only approved the transfer of U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine, but also offered to share intelligence on Iranian drones.
As Iran's nuclear program continues to advance, Israel feels an unprecedented threat, while Russia's military presence in Syria has also allowed Israel to throw mouse shots - after all, the Russian S-300 air defense system can cover most of Israel's territory. Just days before Zelensky announced military aid, the Iranian intelligence minister suddenly announced that Iranian agents had infiltrated Israeli nuclear facilities and seized the details of 189 nuclear scientists.
More crucially, Israel's domestic politics has changed. After Netanyahu's government returned to power, it adopted a tougher foreign policy. They believe that by supporting Ukraine, they can exchange greater support from the United States on the Iran issue, and at the same time send a signal to Russia that "I have new allies". This strategy of "using Ukraine to control Russia" plays into Zelensky's hands.
Zelensky's "conspiracy": using Israel as a lever to pry into the United States' money bag
Zelensky’s disclosure of Israeli military aid was in fact a well-planned “political show” whose real purpose was to send two signals to the United States:
First, Ukraine has also exploited value. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered its third year, and U.S. domestic enthusiasm for Ukrainian aid is declining. Republican lawmakers even publicly questioned, “Why throw taxpayers’ money into Ukraine’s bottomless hole.”Zelensky urgently needed to prove that Ukraine is not only the anti-Russian front, but also a key player in influencing the situation in the Middle East. Israel’s military aid is the best proof – even the Middle Eastern “little hegemony” has a good eye on Ukraine, and why should the United States retreat?
Second, stop being afraid of the Russian threat. For a long time, the United States has reservations about aid to Ukraine, fearing that it will anger Russia and trigger a nuclear conflict. But Zelensky's message through Israel is that Russia's "red lines" are not insurmountable. Israel dares to provide direct military aid to Ukraine, so what else does the United States have to fear? This strategy of "pretending to be a tiger" is actually forcing the United States to increase investment.
What's more, Zelensky also threw out a "super bait"-he revealed that he was negotiating an arms sales agreement of up to $90 billion with the Trump administration, including long-range missiles and drone production lines. This figure is equivalent to one-third of Ukraine's annual GDP, which can be called a "sky-high order." But anyone with a discerning eye knows that this is just Zelensky's "bargaining chip." What he really wants is for the United States to approve the $40 billion military aid bill that has been delayed for several months as soon as possible.
Russia's'revenge ': Tell Ukraine with missiles that Israel can't save you
Zelensky's "show" quickly triggered a chain reaction. Just the day after he announced Israeli military aid, Russia launched the largest airstrike against Ukraine since the war: 44 missiles and hundreds of drones came to the sky, targeting the position of the "Patriot" air defense system. The Russian army even used the "high-speed" hypersonic missile to try to destroy Ukraine's newly arrived advanced weapons. The message of this "precise strike" was clear: Israel's help could not change the battlefield situation.
Russia's counterattack doesn't stop there. At the United Nations General Assembly, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov warned that any military assistance to Ukraine would be "resolutely countered." More subtly, Russia began to deploy in the Middle East: they sent more S-300 air defense units to Syria, while acquiescing in Iran's expansion of its military presence in the Red Sea. This strategy of "using the Middle East to control Ukraine" puts Israel in a dilemma-if it continues to provide military aid to Ukraine, it may lead to the loss of its military superiority in the Middle East.
In the face of Russian pressure, Israel has also begun to “stay behind”. Despite promises to provide the “Patriot” system, Israel has made it clear that it will not provide core technology and will not send military advisors. Ironically, Israel is still secretly negotiating with Russia in an attempt to compromise on the Syrian issue.
Ukraine's "death": Without Israel, the United States would not really help
Zelensky’s situation is essentially a tragedy of Ukraine’s geostrategy.As a “buffer country” between the US and Russia, Ukraine’s fate has not been decided by itself since the outbreak of the conflict.
The core purpose of U.S. aid to Ukraine is to weaken Russia, rather than genuinely help Ukraine rebuild.When Russia threatens to use nuclear weapons, or the U.S. domestic political wind changes, aid can be interrupted at any time.Zelensky is aware of this, so he was determined to pull Israel, trying to make the U.S. feel "Ukraine is a key part of the Middle East strategy."
Israel is a small country in the Middle East that, despite its military strength, can’t fight Russia alone. Their aid to Ukraine is more symbolic and can really change the battle scene with advanced weapons (such as the “Iron Dome” system), which Israel doesn’t dare to provide.
Russia’s advantage: Russia has the world’s second largest nuclear arsenal and controls Ukraine’s energy flows. With winter approaching, Russia can cut off Ukraine’s gas supplies at any time, forcing Zelensky to negotiate.
In this case, Zelensky’s “Israeli card” seems noble, and the reality is helpless. What he really needs is substantial negotiations with Russia, not relying on external forces. But as the Iranian president said, “A day with other people’s gifts can never be a climate.”