As the Trump administration’s tariff hikes shattered the global trade pattern, a note leaked by the European Commission on September 27, 2025 revealed that Brussels was plotting “defensive trade measures” against China.
This label “There is no choice.”The document exposes the rare synchronization of the policies of the United States and Europe toward China. From steel and aluminum tariffs to countervailing investigations on new energy vehicles, the Western Alliance tried to use rules to reconstruct the right to speak in the industrial chain, but this battle in the name of "de-risking" The containment actually pushes the WTO multilateral system to the edge of the cliff.
The ripple effects of the tax hike storm
In September 2025, the global trade pattern was once again turbulent due to a paper tariff increase announcement by U.S. President Trump, and on September 25, Trump announced through social media that he would impose high tariffs on various types of global imports from October 1.
Coverage ranges from livelihoods to industrial equipment, in which kitchen cabinets, bathroom toilet and other building materials products tariffs increased to 50%, import furniture tariffs 30%, patent and brand drug tariffs up to 100%, heavy truck tariffs raised to 25%.
This initiative, referred to as a “tariff storm”, has not only directly impacted the global supply chain, but has also pushed the EU toward the torque of the Sino-U.S. trade game.
Since April 2025, the United States has implemented tariff adjustments on more than 100 trade partners around the world through a “reciprocal tariff” policy, with the benchmark rate jumping from 10% and some countries facing higher rates due to “specific issues”.
The September tariff increase further refined the goal, the tariff increase in the field of building materials, medicine and other areas is thought to be aimed at protecting the U.S. indigenous industry, while creating space for the domestic manufacturing industry to return, however, this policy quickly triggered a chain reaction, the EU as one of the United States' largest trading partners, the first to suffer the shock.
The European Union’s “passive choice”
According to internal documents of the European Commission, the U.S. decision to impose tariffs of 50% on EU goods directly led to the European automotive industry's exports to the U.S. in the first quarter of 2025 dropped by 42%, a decrease of about 1.5 million tons.
Faced with U.S. pressure, the European Union had imposed countermeasures on the United States on March 12 and plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth 26 billion euros, but the two sides reached a compromise after Trump spoke to EU Commission President Von der Leyen on May 25, the EU delayed the time to raise tariffs on the United States.
However, this compromise did not replace long-term stability, but put the EU in a more complicated trade situation, even the day after Trump announced tariffs, the European Commission was exposed to plotting tariffs of 25% to 50% on Chinese steel and related products.
The decision was interpreted by EU officials as “no other choice”, claiming that global steel overcapacity has led to a decline in European corporate profitability and decarbonisation investment difficulties, but in-depth analysis can be seen that the European Union’s trouble is more due to its own structural problems.
As one of the largest steel producers in Europe, the German company Tyson Kempper, for instance, has long remained high in production costs due to the high energy prices in the EU (electricity prices are 2-3 times higher than in the United States, and natural gas prices are almost 5 times higher).
Italy's ArcelorMittal Taranto Steel Plant has suffered losses due to environmental protection costs and operational efficiency issues. The root cause of these problems is not the "dumping" of Chinese steel, but the lagging energy transition, rigid market mechanism and high labor costs in the European Union.
Data show that in 2024, the energy cost of the EU steel industry will account for 40% of the total production cost, while that of China will only account for 15%. However, despite this, the EU still chooses to point the finger at China.
Even in addition to imposing tariffs, the EU also plans to restrict Chinese products through supporting policies, require public works projects to give priority to the purchase of "European green steel", and force large enterprises and car rental companies to give priority to the purchase of European electric vehicles.
These measures were criticized as “protektionism in environmental protection,” which is to interfere with the market through administrative means, rather than enhance the competitiveness of local industries.
Internal differences and strategic difficulties
The EU's China policy is not monolithic. France and Italy clearly oppose tax increases on China, fearing that it will affect the export and supply chain stability of domestic companies; The Netherlands and Sweden advocate toughness and believe that China's industrial expansion needs to be curbed.
This disagreement was exposed in an emergency meeting of the European Union on May 24, which was forced to be postponed due to a failure to reach consensus, but more concerned was the EU’s strategic difficulties in U.S.-European relations.
After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe has deepened its dependence on the United States in the fields of energy and security, and now the economic sector is difficult to get rid of the inertia of "looking at Washington's face."
The European Commission, for example, has proposed a “green industry self-reliance plan” to try to support local through subsidies, but progress is slow in the face of competition in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and the cost advantage of China’s industrial chain.
Trump's tariff policy is tantamount to a "stress test". If the EU follows the United States to be tough with China, it may ease industrial pressure in the short term, but it will lose technical cooperation and investment opportunities in the Chinese market in the long run. If it insists on an open position, it may be isolated by the United States.
The EU's tariff increases quickly sparked counter-reaction from China, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce launched a dispute resolution mechanism in the WTO, citing Article 11 of the Anti-Subsidy Agreement, officially prosecuting the EU for abusing the "national security" clause to engage in trade barriers.
At the same time, China has imposed 25% export duties on key rare-earth elements such as uranium and uranium, directly clogging the neck of European military and new energy industries.
In addition, China has also launched an anti-dumping investigation into polysilicon from the United States and Europe, involving an amount of more than US $5 billion, impacting the competitiveness of the European and American photovoltaic markets.
At the supply chain level, China accelerated the "de-Europeanization" layout, China and Europe added "steel specials", bypassing the EU ports to directly ship construction materials to Central and Eastern Europe; Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries expressed their willingness to expand trade with China, and plans to increase the volume of goods from 4.5 million tons to 10 million tons.
These measures show that China is reducing its dependence on European and American markets through market diversification and industrial chain restructuring.
The spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry made a clear statement on this: “Protectionism cannot solve the EU’s problems, China and Europe should solve specific economic and trade issues through dialogue and consultation.”
In this game with no winners, the real way out is to cooperate rather than confront, and the future of the global economy depends on countries going beyond zero-sum thinking and finding a balance between rules and markets.
conclusion
The EU’s wind-coating tax hikes have had a chain effect on the global economy, with container shipping costs from Shanghai to Rotterdam rising by 40% in a week, Brent crude oil prices across the North Sea by $90 per barrel, and copper stocks increased by 12% a week.
UNCTAD warned that the growth rate of global maritime trade volume will drop to 0.5% in 2025, the lowest in recent years; The OECD predicts that the U.S. economic growth rate will only be 1.5% by 2026.
In this game, the EU’s “no other choice” is more like a strategic short-sighted slogan. History has shown that trade protectionism has never solved structural problems, but instead pushed up inflation and suppressed innovation.
In 2018, Trump's first trade war with China caused American consumers to bear an additional cost of $50 billion. Now, a similar script repeats itself. The global supply chain has not yet recovered from the epidemic and geopolitical conflicts. A new round of tariff war may further tear the global economy apart.
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The source:
“The European Union will impose a tariff of 50% on China,” observers said.
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1844307879772645339&wfr=spider&for=pcThe European Union is preparing to launch 20 “enquiries” against China in different fields.
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1844337606653188414&wfr=spider&for=pc