Zelensky suddenly let go of his willingness to meet with Putin. Why did he choose Kazakhstan "on the edge of China"? What kind of compromise signal between Russia and Ukraine is hidden behind this site selection?
Ukrainian President Zelensky
At the end of September, Ukrainian President Zelensky said in an interview with the media:He is willing to meet with Russian President Putin in Kazakhstan.。
This attitude is in sharp contrast to the previous “refusal to go to Moscow negotiations.” Moreover, the “neutral country on the side of China” will become the new focus of the Russian game.
From the suspension of the 2022 Istanbul talks to the end of the Swiss peace conference in 2024.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the direct dialogue between the leaders of the two sides has always been a “mirror moon”, and the emergence of Kazakhstan this time seems to bring new possibilities to the impasse.
Kazakhstan could become a potential host of the “Puzzeria” is no coincidence.
Russia-Turkey talks in 2022 in Istanbul
This Central Asian country, which borders China, has long established its position as a “third-party platform” in international disputes with neutrality and mediation experience.
In 2022, Kazakhstan successfully promoted diplomatic dialogue between Syria and some Middle Eastern countries; In 2024, it also facilitated border negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan after the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Such a resume makes it difficult for both Russia and Ukraine to refuse.
Switzerland, which was previously mentioned, has lost its neutral credibility due to sanctions on Russia.
Although Turkey remains friendly with both Russia and Ukraine, as a member of NATO, Russia will inevitably have concerns.
In contrast, Kazakhstan’s “triple adaptability” is prominent.
Kazakh President Tokayev and Russian President Vladimir Putin
From a geographical point of view, the position of the "China side" is more accurately stumbling on the needs of both sides.
For Putin, the International Criminal Court's search warrant made it difficult for him to travel to European and American countries, while Kazakhstan, as Russia's "Eurasian Economic Union" ally, stretched thousands of kilometers of common borders to ensure the safety of travel;
For Zelensky, avoiding the Russian mainland and the Western camp and choosing to meet in neutral countries in Central Asia not only avoids the pressure of domestic public opinion to "compromise with Russia", but also shows the West a gesture of "actively promoting peace".
More importantly, Kazakhstan’s close cooperation with China indirectly added a “stability buffer” to the meeting.
And in this game, the selection of "on the edge of China" also gives the role of the Chinese side a lot of attention.
The Chinese side has consistently adhered to the persuasion and promotion of talks, making it different from the previously Western-dominated negotiating venues, and reducing the colour of the confrontation in the camp.
Relationship between
However, the rationality of the location does not mean that peaceful negotiations can go well. Territorial issuesThere is always a “divide” between the two sides.
What is even more alarming is that there are still many uncertainties behind the current "concession signal".
The Russian President’s press secretary, Peskov, said: "An unprepared meeting is a show and doomed to failure"Kiev has not yet responded to Russia’s proposal to “form a working group to advance negotiations.”
This means that Russia remains cautious about this meeting and is unwilling to repeat the mistakes of "empty talk without consensus".
Zelensky's "concessions" are also hard to push out of the pressure of reality: according to the Russian disclosure, the Ukrainian military currently has less than 60 percent of operational forces, unable to launch a large-scale offensive;
Zelensky inspects troops
The United States is unwilling to pay out of its own pocket, but instead asks Europe to spend money on arms sales to Ukraine, which intensifies Europe's own defense pressure. All these have forced Ukraine to re-examine the necessity of negotiations.
So in a recent interview with British media, Zelensky would only "speak soft words" to US President Trump, he said.I hope Trump can push Russia and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement, and said that "Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire".
Just during this session of the General Assembly, Zelensky once again mentioned China, saying that China is a powerful country and hopes that China can pressure Russia to cease fire.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly responded, emphasizing the position of "objective fairness, persuasion and promotion of negotiations", which forms a response to the "Twelve articles of peace" supported by Kazakhstan.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, China has always encouraged peace talks.
In fact, China has never directly intervened in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but indirectly contributed to peace by promoting food agreements and promoting dialogue among foreign ministers.
such “Without entry, there is action.” The attitude of Kazakhstan just provided implicit support for the meeting in Kazakhstan-not only avoiding becoming a "pressure party", but also building a non-confrontational communication atmosphere for both sides.
The key issue now is,Is Ukraine Really Ready for a Ceasefire?
From the current information, Zelensky’s “concession” is more like a strategic adjustment to “promoting change” rather than a thorough compromise.
In his statement, he still stressed that "the meeting should be based on a ceasefire", but did not mention the specific solution to the territorial dispute;
While Russia insists on “solving core differences first, then talking about a ceasefire”, there are still fundamental differences in the order of claims between the two sides.
Putin refuses to make concessions on territorial issues
Overall, Kazakhstan's neutrality attributes provided "hardware support" for negotiations, while China's persuasion position created a "software environment".
But whether Russia and Ukraine can ultimately break through the historical dilemma still depends on whether Russia and Ukraine can find consensus on core issues such as territory and security.
For Zelensky, concessions are only the first step; For Putin, caution is not unreasonable.
Whether this meeting, which may be held "on the edge of China", is the beginning of a ceasefire or another bold attempt, may depend on whether the two sides can really jump out of the cycle of "talking and fighting".