China has a population of about 1.4 billion, but it is worried about the population problem. The United States and Russia have less than 500 million people together, but they don't panic. Why is this?

When many people see the demographic numbers, the first reaction is more and less, but things are not so simple.

China can be said to be one of the most populous countries in the world, but concerns about population problems are growing.

In contrast to the United States, the population is less than 3.5 billion, and Russia is less than 1.5 billion, these two countries in the issue of population, on the surface seems to be not so concerned.

This contrast is not because of the total population, but because of the different nature of the demographic problem in each country. Population numbers and population structure do not match.

By 2024, China's elderly population will be 3.1 billion, and China's population will age much faster than the United States, but the thickness of the pocket per capita will not catch the United States at all.

As a result, the pressure on pensions is increasing across society.

The pressure of retirement here is high, but the willingness to have children there has dropped to freezing point¡£ China's fertility rate has dropped to around 1.3, which is lower than that of Japan, which many people think doesn't like having children.

This is behind the pressure of reality, many young people feel incapable of living, can't afford, in the big cities, raising a child until the age of 18, spending a million is a normal thing.

Particularly for professional women, having children is likely to affect their careers, but there are few nurseries that can provide help in society, which makes childbirth a very difficult choice.

On the one hand, the number of older people is increasing, and on the other hand, there are fewer and fewer newborns, and this old and small situation may directly affect the development of the economy.

From 2010 to 2023, the total number of working people aged 15 to 59 decreased by more than 50 million, many factories were unable to hire workers, and the service industry lacked people.

More importantly, this represents fewer young people aged 15 to 24 in the future.

Compared to China, the U.S. and Russia seem to have their own unique ways of dealing with demographic problems, which makes them seem more tolerant than China in the face of demographic changes.

The U.S. approach is mainly immigration, with a large number of immigrants entering the U.S. legally every year.These people are not only high-tech talents who go to Silicon Valley to write code, but also the workforce in a variety of basic industries and services industries.

They fill the labor gap at all levels of American society, consciously selecting and attracting the people it needs through policies such as issuing work visas and green cards.

This steady stream of new population brings not only the labor force, but more importantly, they are generally younger, which directly slows down the aging rate of American society as a whole.

These newcomers have to live, spend and pay taxes here, and many of them will start businesses, injecting vitality into the whole economy.

Even if the fertility rate in the U.S. is falling, it has largely addressed the shortage of labor by recruiting young people around the world.

Looking at the situation in Russia, it is completely different. Russia's calmness is not determined by how many people it can attract, but by its national conditions and economic structure.

The core point is that Russia's economy mainly relies on selling energy, such as oil and natural gas. The characteristic of this business model is that it does not require a lot of manpower.

A large oil field or a gas pipeline may only require a few thousand engineers and workers to operate and maintain, but it can create huge amounts of wealth for the country, which is fundamentally different from China¡¯s economic model.

The Chinese economy needs tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of workers to produce goods in factories, and a large number of service workers to support the operation of huge cities. China is extremely dependent on the number of working people.

And Russia¡¯s economic vitality is not here, and even if the labor population decreases, the impact on its core fiscal income will not be so instantaneous.

In addition, Russia is vast and sparsely populated, with the largest land area in the world, but its population is less than 150 million, which means that it does not have the huge population density pressure like East Asian countries.

In housing, land and other resources, per capita share is much higher, which also makes the social impact of population reduction not so strong in feelings.

An overview of this unique economic structure has given Russia more buffer time to deal with demographic issues.

However, this superficial calmness is only part of what everyone sees. In fact, there are still their own problems within each country.

The problem in the United States is mainly money.

As baby boomers begin to retire, it is estimated that by 2050, the population over the age of 65 in the United States will account for about 23% of the total population. By then, an average of less than 2.4 working people will have to support one retired elderly man.

The real big trouble is the cost of old-age pensions and medical care, and U.S. medical technology is advanced but also very expensive.For example, some new drugs to treat diabetes and weight loss cost nearly a thousand dollars a month.

These costs will eventually be borne by the entire society.There is a prediction that health insurance premiums in the United States will rise dramatically by 2026, with some insurance companies applying for an increase of more than 60%.

And an important U.S. government health care subsidy policy will also expire on December 31, 2025, which could result in millions of people paying more than 75 percent.

This enormous fiscal expenditure caused by aging is a very clear and ongoing long-term problem that not only exacerbates the cost of living for ordinary people, but also tensions government investments in other important areas.

If America¡¯s problem is money, then Russia is facing a demographic catastrophe caused by war.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict caused very direct damage to the Russian demographic structure.

The war left a large number of young men dying or leaving, directly emptying the core part of the labor force, and the deeper impact, such as the insecurity brought by the war, seriously hit the common people's will to produce children.

Many people are now reluctant to have children, with data showing that in June 2024, the number of newborns in Russia is less than 100,000 a month, the lowest in 25 years.

It could be said that the war has worsened Russia¡¯s already serious demographic decline, even with Russian officials publicly saying that the country needs special demographic action to save fertility.

In fact, everyone is worried about the population issue, but the worries are different.

source

China's elderly population of 3.1 million in 2024 Experts: the ageing process has entered the fastest period

Huawei Intelligence Network 2021-08-27 2010-2020 U.S. population numbers and population gender, age, urban and rural structure analysis