The contents of this article are written with authoritative materials and personal opinions. The source of the literature has been marked at the end of the article, so please know.
Preliminary
China waited for four months, but waited for the news that Trump was "determined" and never looked back:
Even if the government is closed, the taxation of countries such as China will not stop.
U.S. farmers repeatedly complain that orders to China are no longer secured, and why Trump is still “Death reason”？
Sino-US soybean trade is close to falling through. Is the Republican Party really in no hurry?
Trump has not yet confirmed his trip to China, but the U.S. government has to close its doors first.
On September 30, the U.S. federal funds will be exhausted, and employers will not be able to pay their salaries immediately.Al such a “show” is played every year in the U.S. government, this year is different.
Since Democrats have lost the House of Representatives for more than two years, they have no right to speak in a minority party.
So the Democrats also want to "card" the Republicans with the opportunity to allocate funds, by the way, putting their conditions, otherwise don't give funds.
But this year’s Trump is very tough, not giving the Democrats any chance to negotiate.
On the 28th, there was media exposure that Trump directly refused to meet with Democratic official Schumer, which made it clear that the United States was directly closed.
As for why he did so, it has been speculated that Trump is prepared to take this opportunity to resign some of his “democratic-oriented” employees.
For example, FBI agents who acted "on their knees" in the Freud incident in 2020, Trump is not prepared at all.
So taking the US government shutdown as a trick, the Democratic Party this time is missing.
However, the Ministry of Homeland Security issued a message on the same day: even if the government shut down, the tariffs will be as low.
According to sources, the issue of tariffs has long been seen by the U.S. two parties as "national core interests", and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent vowed to obtain "hundreds of billions" of taxes, so far only a small part.
In the long run, even if the tariffs result in the United States losing 200,000 jobs and 0.25% of GDP annually, it is still interpreted by politicians as a “necessary cost.”
For the United States, short-term government shutdowns are only at the administrative level. “The Pain”The rise of Chinese industry is seen as being against hegemony. “Great threat”。
The U.S. media that Trump is a tariff-addicted president, especially attached to tariffs on China.
From his last term, from steel and aluminum products to today’s electric vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic batteries and other “new three” are all part of the strategic plan.
Therefore, an important core goal of U.S. tariffs is to suppress China's industrial competitiveness and promote the "de-Chinaization" of industrial and supply chains.
In key areas such as semiconductors and rare earth, tariffs and export restrictions form a combination of fist, trying to block the development path of China's high-end manufacturing.
Now that the government is closed, Trump is still unwilling to let go, that is, he wants to " Prohibition of high-end sales »。
In fact, according to industry insiders, every household in the United States is now very busy, spending an additional $1,300 per year on tariffs.
The industry has been hit hard by the chaos of the supply chain, and so far, a complete set of "integration schemes" has not been formed to save people's support rate.
Trump is very persistent, insisting that their tariffs will eventually “rich,” coupled with specific industries that benefit from tariff protection continuing to pressure Congress to maintain policies, giving Republicans a lot of confidence.
The path-dependence of the tariff policy since its implementation in 2018 has put policy adjustments at high institutional costs.
There is no doubt that whoever wants to stop now is "having trouble" with Trump.
Recently, U.S. media that China did not buy soybeans, which has left the United States missing the industrial period.
Autumn soybeans are now in stockpile, and FAO farmers in the U.S. are likely to face losses of tens of billions of dollars, but Trump doesn’t help them find a way to solve it, which is very disappointing.
Soybean stocks have climbed to a five-year high, with bean farms losing $100 to $150 per acre, and farms losing more than 45 percent.
On the basis of this, the Republican party is afraid that it will soon be in “great difficulty.”
As the core category of U.S. agricultural exports and the economic pillar of the Republican box office, the crisis in the soybean industry not only threatens agricultural economic stability, but shakes political support in key electoral districts.
The Trump administration’s agricultural aid promise is sick of landing delays.
The empty cheque of “when things get better next year” is no longer able to reassure the collapsing peasants who urgently need to “sell out their products.”
So people want Trump and China to negotiate tariffs while shifting the policy focus from passive cash subsidies to proactive search for markets to get them out of the crisis sooner.
China's countermeasures can be called "beating the serpent seven inches", targeting Trump's lifeline.
Most of the U.S. soybean core states are deep red states, which produce half of the total U.S. production, and have long-term steady support for the Republican Party.
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won a large number of votes in counties that depended on agriculture.
Combined with the cessation of soybean purchases, it has triggered a “economic crisis in the rural United States”: now the industry has brought economic storms, and related industries such as rail freight and port operations are also facing a cliff of decline in demand.
While American farmers have long been one of the Republican party’s “most loyal voters,” they can’t stand up.
Earlier, the appeal of Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, expressed the industry's aspirations: "What we need is the market, not subsidies. The Chinese market is crucial to livelihood."
At the same time, when the company faces a “outburst of farmhouses and borrowers” and sees competitors such as Argentina take the opportunity to sell 20 boats of soybeans to China, the discontent with Trump’s policy explodes.
Opinion polls show that Trump’s support has fallen by more than 12 percent, which also means a crack in the basic disc of Republican long-term dependence.
If farmers turn to support the Democratic Party, they will almost certainly lose next year's mid-term election.
However, considering the current situation, Trump is unlikely to "throw in the towel" to China and cancel tariffs in exchange for China's purchase of soybeans and other products.
The reason is that not only within the U.S. government, but in the traditional manufacturing state of Michigan, such as the state, the "hard against China" has become the political correct to gain voter support.
Once Trump kneels down, they will lose more votes.
It's no wonder that the two parties are now comparing with each other. First, the Biden administration has turned the tariff plan into a "customized product" to please voters in key states and sold tough policies towards China.
Trump responded by “raise tariffs to 200 percent” in the election, proving that they were harder to China than the Democrats.
But now, so climbed, suffering is only the ordinary American people, who have been tormented by the Trump tariffs.
References:
"Foreign Media: The government shutdown is imminent, Trump refuses to meet with Democrats" reference news
U.S. bean farming suffered a “destructive blow”: even if a deal is reached with China, it is not possible to catch up with this year’s harvest season
Soya harvest season is coming, American Farmers Crazy @ Trump: "Fifth-level fire alarm", no time!
US Department of Homeland Security: Even if the government stops, tariffs cannot stop