Recently, China-Philippines relations have again become the focus.The Yellow Island dispute has escalated, the Philippines has repeatedly provoked China's sovereignty, China's ambassador to the Philippines, Huang Tian, is about to leave, and one of the words he left before his departure has aroused external concern: "I hope that China-Philippines relations will return to the right track as soon as possible under the joint efforts of both sides."
On the surface, this sentence is like a blessing, but combined with the current situation in the South China Sea and the recent actions of the Philippines, there is a hidden meaning behind this sentence. China's provocation against the Philippines has been unbearable, but it still hopes to bring relations back to normal track through dialogue and diplomatic means. If the Philippines continues to step on China's bottom line, the subsequent diplomatic consequences will be inevitable.
1. The conflict on Huangyan Island escalates, and the Philippines takes frequent actions
On September 16th, the Philippines sent more than a dozen official ships and dozens of fishing boats to rush into the territorial waters of Huangyan Island from different directions. This action is the first large-scale infringement action by the Philippines after China announced the establishment of Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve. China's coast guard has taken measures to control according to law, including shouting warnings, route restrictions and water cannon sprays. The Philippine official ship No.3014 even tried to hit the Chinese marine police ship. Finally, under China's legal, professional and restrained law enforcement, the Philippine ship had to raise the white flag and surrender.
Although the facts are in front of us, the Philippines denies that the Chinese Marine Police has taken control measures, and has also dragged external forces such as the United States and France to accuse China. This kind of behavior not only fails to change the facts, but makes the provocative behavior of the Philippines even more "ridiculous", exposing the Marcos government's adventurous style and misjudgment in diplomacy.
The multiple nature of the provocation in the Philippines
According to experts' analysis, this action in the Philippines is not an accidental invasion, but a compound provocation, including the following levels:
1. Rebound provocation
After the establishment of a national nature reserve on Yellowstone Island, the Philippines hopes to “remediate” it through large-scale actions to influence public opinion and the scene.
This provocation appears to be a protest, but is actually a response to its own diplomatic and domestic pressures.
Experimental provocation
The Philippines is trying to test the strength and change of China’s regulatory measures to explore the possible operational spaces of the South China Sea arbitration case.
This is a dangerous experimental behavior that has actually stumbled on China’s red line.
Show of provocation
This operation is both to show the hardness of the government to the domestic people, but also to prove its "value" to foreign forces such as the United States, hoping to ease domestic pressure through external support.
Domestic support for the Marcos government has declined, and public discontent has risen and shifted sights by performing at sea.
The Ceramic Provocation
Several Philippine ships have sailed dangerously and even intentionally struck Chinese naval police ships, threatening the safety of navigation and personnel.
Such behavior is obviously provocative and risky, and if handled improperly it can lead to serious conflict.
China's Maritime Police Strong Resistance
In the face of the provocation of the Philippines, the Chinese side is clear and restrained:
Shouting warning: Discourage the Philippine side from illegally trespassing through professional shouting at the first time.
Route control: China restricts Philippine ships from entering the core area through naval blockade.
Water cannon jets: Forced controls are carried out with water cannon jets in the case of the official ship Fi 3014 intentionally hitting Chinese vessels.
Experts pointed out that China's maritime disposal is both legal and normative, fully reflecting the ability to safeguard national sovereignty, protect personnel's security and maritime order.The Yuan Island incident once again proved that China's countermeasures in the South China Sea not only target military provocation, but also provide support to safeguard ecological protection and legal authority.
Fourth, the ambassador to the Yellow Tree to come message, diplomatic signals clear
The ambassador has witnessed several upheavals in China-Philippines relations since he took office in 2019. During the Duterte period, China-Philippines relations had a "warming spring", the South China Sea issue remained low, and trade and exchanges between the two sides progressed smoothly. However, after Marcos took office, the Philippines quickly returned to the U.S. arms, the friction in the South China Sea intensified and even crossed borders on the Taiwan Sea issue.
The ambassador's words "I hope that China-Philippines relations will soon return to the right track" are superficially blessed, but in fact imply two meanings:
The warning means that China's dissatisfaction with the current relationship has been clear, and the Philippines' actions have reached the bottom line of China's diplomacy.
2. Easing intention: China still hopes to improve relations through diplomatic means, but the initiative lies with the Philippines.
If the Philippines does not adjust its strategy, China-Philippines relations may be passively downgraded, and even affect bilateral cooperation in economy, trade, scientific research, culture and other fields.
Internal and external problems of the Philippine government
The Marcos government faces multiple pressures:
Domestic political pressure
The provocation in the South China Sea may be to divert domestic contradictions and ease the political pressure brought by the decline in support rate.
Domestic economic and social problems remain prominent in the Philippines, with frequent demonstrations, and the government hopes to create a “sense of solidarity” with external issues.
Diplomatic and military risks
Coalition with foreign powers such as the United States has intensified the friction in the South China Sea, making the Philippines a game of geopolitics.
Open intervention on the Taiwan Sea issue, breaking the red line of the principle of one-in-one, and risky behavior is obvious.
Potential consequences
If the provocation continues, the relationship will continue to deteriorate.
External military support is not a real "protective umbrella", but may deepen the strategic dilemma of the Philippines in the game of great powers.
China's bottom line and future direction
China’s actions in Yunnan Island and the South China Sea send clear strategic signals:
Maintaining sovereignty: The national nature reserves and the law enforcement of the Sea Guard show that China has firmly upheld its sovereignty over the South China Sea.
Peaceful settlement is a priority: China has always been willing to resolve differences through dialogue, but there is never a bottom line of compromise.
Diplomatic warning: The departure of the ambassador is a warning to the Marcos government that whether or not China will send a new ambassador in the future will be an important signal to measure the course of relations between the two countries.
Experts also pointed out that if the Philippines has political wisdom and vision, the Yellow Island Reserve could also be a window for China to cooperate in low-sensitive areas such as ecological conservation and scientific research, rather than end up in conflict every time.
VII. Conclusion
The Yellow Island incident once again proved that peace and stability in the South China Sea must be built on the basis of mutual respect for sovereignty and compliance with international law.
The words of the ambassador at his departure are both a warning and a reminder that the resumption of China-Philippines relations requires the Philippines to actively adjust its strategy and stop provocative acts.
If the Philippines continues to step on the red line, not only will China-Philippines relations passively decline, but its image in the South China Sea and regional security will also be compromised.The Yunnan Island incident is a real education for the Philippines: provocation is fruitless, peace and cooperation are the long-term measures, and China is firm and unwavering in defending its sovereignty.